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These results are not to show off, they are purely to show the thinking behind the winners

20 August 2011 A perfect example of not forgetting the smaller meetings. Finally, I’m switching meetings to Chester where I have a stunning bet provided the price holds. Look in the 2.25 and you will see a return to form by Mappin Time who was only beaten half a length at Haydock last time behind Strike Up the Band. Would certainly have won if he hadn’t met trouble in running and looks a winner without a penalty today, and given that he won this time of the year in 2010 off 90, AND he is in stall 1 running off 79. Now this is the sort of bet I would have shoveled shed loads of cash on in the old days so lets make a good move to make decent cash away from York for a change.

Result - This was like taking candy from a baby. Missed the start so ended up behind with no advantage from stall 1 but still won very easy at 7-2

17 July 2011 Nearly missed this but "nag me" came to the rescue. Sorry I'm a bit late but it was going to be another no bet day but I have a decent price about a horse that was nagged to me an hour ago. It involves a noted horse called Pepper Lane who won first time out at Ripon this season in what was a decent handicap in a good time. However, it was raised a fair few pounds and upped slightly in class and although I would have expected better it possibly didn't cope in the grade with an extra 9lbs on his back. We now have a situation where Pepper Lane is down in class to a 75 rated race whereas the race she won was a 80 rated handicap and has actually been dropped 3lbs aswell for today's race. The ground should enable Pepper Lane to use her ability against lesser animals and looks a god bet to me with an inform jockey on board.

Result - A big stable would never have got this leniency by the handicapper and a drop down in class that he really shouldn't be in produced a powerful finish and won easy at 7-1.

Members quote: I was so pleased you kept faith with  Manassas. Yet another big priced winner at Royal Ascot. I just don't know how you do it.

17 July 2011 I have won many a big handicap at Royal Ascot and this was nice.I will be short and sweet here.The Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal ascot seems obvious to me. Manassas who I said at the start of the season that it would win a decent handicap and a repeat of the Victoria Cup form would see him go close. I rate the horse very much but we've been unlucky with it.

Result - Patience was the key here, and faith and luck. The horse would not be denied and had the race won from over a furlong out at 14-1

Members quote: Sweet Lightening was an inspired selection with the trainer being so out of form

17 August 2010 A race planned 2 months previous provides immense pleasure. Finally, I think I have a beauty in the 4.40 that is so well hidden I have managed a price of 16-1. The thing I like about this contest is that there are many 3 year olds that cannot win which gives our selection much better value. In fact if I remember only Realism has won it in recent times as a 3 year old. The horse is the Zetland runner up and 11-4 favourite Sweet Lightening, who frightened me when looking all over the winner at Redcar after travelling with supreme confidence throughout the race and was beaten by our selection Forte Dei Marmi. You could argue that Tom Eaves got to the front with too much horse under him and gave up but I’ve watch the race a few times and the winner was good. Tom Eaves is back on board again and I think this is a real live prospect. It has more improvement in him I’m sure and just watch this horse travel in the race, it will never come off the bridle until very late in the race. 

Result - A fantastic prediction and won as if the result was known beforehand. Never off the bridle an won pulling double at 16-1

29 July 2010 One of the most exciting races of the season.Today gives me the opportunity to confidently pick a very progressive horse who seems to have his own style of running. I have watched about 10 reruns of the horses in the first and what I like about one of them is that on the occasions that he has won he has product a remarkable turn of foot approaching the final furlong when all seemed lost. The horse I’m talking about is Beachfire who seemed cooked on both his last runs and actually need reminders at Sandown in both races to wake him up. The horse looked disinterested and was trading at big prices in running. In fact today it might be better waiting until this horse looks beaten and then back it in running cos I have no doubt that if it does win today there will have been a point in the race were you will think that you have done yer money

Result - Beachfire ran exactly as predicted. Never looked like winning and played up throughout the race being last for most of it. Then produced a remarkable turn of foot to win on the line at 10-1.

31 May 2010 Large bet due to utmost confidence.The bet of day though is clearly in the Zetland Gold Cup wher Forte Dei Marmi can take this decent handicap. This horse pulverised the opposition at Newbury on his seasonal return and looked like doing the same at York but seemed to flatter to deceive and appeared not to stay. I have looked at the race a few times and I really feel that the winner and second produced exceptional performances on the day and Forte Die Marmi was just beaten by better horses and deserves to feature today. In fact the pace set by the second Indian days would have knocked the stuffing out of many good handicappers and Imposing looks group class so you cannot knock the defeat. FDM participation was in question yesterday due to the forecast conditions but everything points to a win today from the leniently treated Sweet Lightening who ran well at Chester but this will be different I hope.

Result - This horse could have been called the winner from a long way out and was always going to catch favourite Sweet Lightening who is a winner in waiting.

19 June 2009 This is what hard work can produce.The race I'm really interested in is the Buckingham Palace Stakes at 5.30 where I have 2 which jump out at me. One of my favourite horse from 2007 is at a mark which is clearly a winning one and I cannot dismiss at at 25-1. This is why I love handicapping and hopefully I will demonstrate that handicapping follows a 2 year cycle. When horses win, they get raised in rating, they win again and get raised in rating again until it is impossible for the horse to win again, and then the horse spends a year getting back down to a handicap mark that it can win again. Overall the handicapper is actually doing your job for you by stopping most of the horses in the field so the races are not half as competitive as you think. Most punters are day to day merchants. Handicapping isn't like that you have to watch and note things over long periods of time. Many say we are mugs backing in such big fields but in reality they are not as bigger fields as they look and if one is patient the rewards will come. Perfect example is Giganticus from Barry Hills yard. We all know how good he is at getting his handicappers ready for a big run and believe me this horse running off 91 is an outstanding wager. This is the race he would have mapped out for the horse and we already know how capable it is by the 3 wins in 2007, the latter winning with a bit in hand off 98. The Bunbury Cup form of 2007 would also be good enough to feature aswell. Obviously, the horse has to produce that form but at 25-1 you have a horse that has the perfect conditions and should be far lesser a price. This horse is perfectly drawn to come late off a fast pace.

Result - This horses has a devestating turn of foot and I felt is was primed by Hills to take this competitive event comfortably at an earl price of 25-1.

18 June 2009 OMG....Lightening strikes twice. My concern is Fareer who I rate very highly and found stamina wanting in the Silver Bowl which Desert Creek won. What you have to wonder is if the ground then is as it is today would Fareer have got closer or even beaten DC. Very little between the 2 on form but Fareer is a massive price of 40-1 on the exchanges and with all the rage on Brief Encounter, Fareer seems to have been forgotten. It was a great day when Fifteen Love won this race at a big price last year and it would be no surprise if this talented horse from Ed Dunlop's yard did the same.

Result - Stunning repeat performance in the Britannia as Fareer gets upon the line. Another amazing result for Successful Betting. Some clients managed 38-1.

31 July 2008 Massive SB gamble cleans up. The race of interest is the 4.05 Goodwood when the Ladbroke handicap at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago is the key to this race. Yesterdays winner Love Galore was 4th and ran well next time out and then won yesterday and it's a brave man to go against that horse today, However, I have a feeling it won't run, and with Fifteen Love already a non runner those were 2 I considered real threats to our selection plus Steel Tango who arrived on the scene very late from a disadvantaged draw

It is no secret that Indian Days is an expected payer for us this season after a brilliant win at Redcar early doors. James Given tried Indian Days at Royal Ascot and it ran a very good race and only trouble in running prevented the horse from being placed over a distance that was too much for the horse. If you get chance to see the Redcar win where he won with a ton in hand you will see why I feel the hike in weight did not stop him from running a big race. Even the run previously was strengthened by Collection's brilliant Royal Ascot win. Went up 9lbs for that Redcar win and looked to have the Labroke won at the 2 pole but eventually finished a very good 3rd and being unable to quicken in the ground.

Today I feel the horse has everything in it's favour to run a massive race. Only a 3lb rise in the weights which is fair and The ground is fast whereas the ground in the Ladbroke was my only worry that day and prevented me from having a big bet. The draw is perfect and hopefully Indian Days will be up with the pace. If everything goes to plan we will get a good return here and I just hope it runs to form.

Result - Very exciting race bringing back memories of one of Mick Taylor's greatest ever gambles on Jalfrezi on this same track in 1995

19 June 2008 What dreams are made of I hope to have a beauty in the Britannia Stakes provided it doesn't rain, the horse is one that I had earmarked for a big payer this year but it cannot act on soft ground under any circumstances and it's action goes all wrong. The horse is Fifteen Love who was highly rated as a 2 year old and was once considered a guineas horse until flopping in soft ground in the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes. I have to admit though, I wouldn't do anything that is drawn high and thankfully we have a good pitch. Believe me this could lead from start to finish and I praying it reproduces it's form on this very fast ground. Trading at 33-1 at the moment and this race does produce shocks, however, this won't be that big of a shock as far as I am concerned.

Result - A brilliant result for Successful Betting with some clients taking an early 50-1 

7 May 2008 Great start to the season  I’m going to try and get on a horse that was so impressive last time out that the chances are it will never win again after today cos the handicapper will polax it. The horse is Allied Powers who I watched win on my birthday. One could argue that the ground is so totally different that it might seem silly to back it in faster conditions, however, this horse is a rapid improver and you can tell that from the Haydock race, where the horse was very unlucky, and of course the Ponte race where it could have won 15 lengths if the jockey hadn’t stopped riding and the horse was slowly pulling himself up. One cannot say it won’t act on today’s ground because it has never experienced it but purely in the improvement factor we have to play in this better class and as the only horse in the field totally proven at the distance, I take it to defy a penalty easily. I expect it to be handy throughout and kick before the bend to make it difficult for anything to come on the outside.

Result - A great turn of foot and and Allied Powers was easy winner at 4-1

30 May 2008 Nice end to the month The Victoria Cup at Ascot is a major player when it comes to finding future winners, and the 3rd horse King of Dixie is underrated so don't be surprised if this horse romps away with the 2.10 at York. The performance was remarkable, so much so that you could argue the jockey lost the plot after the horse reared up in the stalls and got left 10 lengths, but then actually got to the front too early and blew up. This was a remarkable run and there is very little even with proven ability that will stop this horse if everything goes to plan. Trainers states this is very easy to train and is the stable star and worth getting up for each morning. Outstanding chance but the price is still a bit stingy.

Result - Came from last to first and King of Dixie won with a great deal in hand at 11-4.

4 June 2007 Biggest bet so far this season I want to take on Borderlescott tonight with a horse I thing produced a better previous performance than the favourite did at Haydock last time. I appreciate Borderlescott was beaten by a serious improver in Sierra Vista but it was still a shock that it was beaten at very short odds. This is tougher and whilst Borderlescott may win I think to risk it at a short price again is ludicrous and I have to take it on with Assertive whose performance at York last time in a Group 2 was excellent. This race has been targeted by Richard Hannon again and I think once Richard Hughes gets this horse on the rails from the high draw it will take some passing, and hopefully put to bed the poor run the horse had in this race last year.

Result - Assertive followed the plan to the letter and won comfortably at 3-1

May 29 2006 Patience is the key - First Max Bet Get ready for a max bet in the Zetland Gold Cup. This was always going to be a max bet in this race on a horse that is the perfect 4 year handicapper for me. It is very genuine and comes from off the pace. I didn't like the draw too much but I paid heavily from supporting draw stats last season and I don't thing I need to be too worried. This horse cannot finish out of the first four IMO and if it does I will be pretty upset as this is the first major bet that I know serious money is going down. The horse is Chantaco, and if you look at the two runs that this horse has had this season you wonder why it isn't unbeaten. What makes this good for us is that on those performances it should be higher in the handicap and it will be very hard to beat this afternoon.

Result - Could have been called the winner from along way out but only a great ride got the horse home Chantanco WON 4-1

Aug 26 2005 The long wait rewarded at last. Shareholder Info is straightforward. I have always had it in my mind that when Tax Free runs again it would have been a max bet. Sadly, things haven't gone too well in August and my normal boldness has not come to the forefront. In addition to that the price needs to be better for a max bet in such a competitive handicap. I can only see one winner though and had this horse not had one race this season over a mile it would have been unbeaten in 4 races. It is going to take a seriously good horse to lower Tax Free's colours this afternoon. Dandy has had this race as a target all season and the fact that it is later than normal due to Ascot means he has a little more to look forward too. A very strong bet indeed worthy of bigger status but I will reduce the bet on behalf of my dismal York record..but in my defence I have produced the winner of this event on quite a few occasions in the past.

Result - Tax Free rewards a massive gamble from an early 7-2

June 24 2005 First MAX BET of the season  This has been a nightmare of day and I am not going to back out. At one point the rain was throwing it down but it has eased considerably and I feel we have to go with the indended MAXIMUM bet. The horse is Out After Dark. Ever since this horse ran at Beverley on 7 May 2005 when putting up a tremendous performance off 85 it was earmarked as a future Max Bet. I have actually turned it down twice..once at Goodwood and once at Beverley again when the price was 13-8. The horse it beat that day opposes and should actually turn tables if you take into account the runner up came from stall one at Beverley...it won't though!!

Out After Dark is a real battler who arrives at just the right time and is very difficult to pass, the stable have had this race planned out for some time and I will be very disappointed if this fails to make the frame, no horse in the field is in as good a current for as this. The bet is EW for insurance and I hope to make our first Maximum stake a winning one. An outstanding bet IMO.

Result - The camera angle at this track made it an awful race to watch until the horse took off in the last furlong to catch Chookie Heiton on the line. WON 5-1

June 12 2005
A little speculative maybe but I noted this horse's turn of foot at Southwell during April, and noted it as a future winner. It has ran twice since in unfavourable conditions and I have a note to back at 7 furlongs on fast ground. Well it's not 7 furlongs but the horse has the right conditions together with a good draw and a fantastic price for No Grouse that IMO is still very well handicapped. Must play in a small way at odds which currently around 20-1. 

Result - Backed in from an early 20-1 No Grouse wins by a short-head at a SP of 12-1.

June 7 2005
Willhewiz is a talented handicapper who is better than his current rating. He won two races off 78 under today's conditions and is surprisingly running off 74 today. The horse Cape St Vincent who beat him last time out is possibly an improving sort and the way they both annihilated the rest of the field at Bath would indicate to me that the horse is still in top form and quite capable of taking this weak handicap. As this race was won by the stable last year I would assume it has to be a target again. Anything above 6-1 is a fair price IMO.

Result - Willhewiz leads from start to finish WON 13-2.

 
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