1 December 2002
This is just a few
lines to let everyone know how things are going. I spend
most of my time relaying the bets to shareholders so there
is no real need for me to update things here as most know
what is going on. I do find it far quicker and easier to use
the telephone line to update on what is going on, and I will
be looking to maybe do this when the flat season comes. I
need to be looking at ways to reduce my workload and maybe
make things a bit more worthwhile as costs are rising all of
the time and for the past couple of months the site is
running at a serious admin loss because we do not take fees
into consideration until we are confident we have made
profit for subscribers, and I am determined to not commence
going into the pot to recover the costs or dispense with the
pay back fees. Our policy is that if we don't make money it
is unfair to expect people to pay and it has worked great
for us so far and forces us to strive for excellence.
Overall, things
didn't help having a terrible October by normal standards,
and whilst we have recovered in November to show sound
results it has been unlucky and hard. The Novice has been
brilliant this month, his assessments of the races has
produced good profit and I feel we deserved better and
yesterday gave a pretty good example of the month as a
whole. The Sportsman, in his own admission had a terrible
October, and whilst the Novice is a full time pro, the
Sportsman isn't, and a change in work patterns meant his
study was badly restricted resulting in fewer bets, which is
generally not the best policy. I stress we make no excuses
but it is certainly nice to see the losses curtailed in
November and I still feel that long term we will be ok and
that is how we always intend to be judged.
I am still
painstakingly judging the system for backing and laying, but
it is tough going, I would maybe go for it if it was my own
money but as yet I cannot bring myself to risk SB money, I
am a hard task master and when I know I can make money near
certain profit on the flat it is sometimes silly to throw it
away on a test that could end up putting unnecessary
pressure on the funds. I hope you all understand cos I know
a few of you having been emailing me wanting some action.
We have been going
for a considerable time now and are solidly proven over
time. The long term plan will have me on the flat, the
flat system, the Novice over jumps, the sportsman, and
hopefully an in house system man, a laying man and an all
weather expert. My view is then we will have the best
service around by a mile and you all will be part of it, and
anyone who joins who does not make money in the course of a
years betting will have ALL fees refunded. I have always had
the opinion that you need to specialise to make money, it
impossible to make decent money all year round as an
individual. We will attempt to recruit the guys that can do
it. We are half way there but as you know we don't rush
things.
20 October 2002
1000 This is just
quick update to let everyone know how things are progressing
with the Novice and the Sportsman.
Well we started very
slowly and I would say that some of you are finding the
whole thing quite boring. I'm sorry to say but that is often
how it is and we are not going to invent bets just to create
interest, our aim is to win long term, you have two decent
banks to do that and I did state on Saturday that things
were about to change and they did. Not fantastic but I felt
Saturdays information was superb and we were very
unfortunate not to win far more than we did.
I know a few are
having difficulty with the Sports Information but we don't
play at this, we have accounts with numerous bookmakers to
help us get the bets on at the best price. It is a pain at
times but that is what needs to be done to make money, the
Sportsman does it and so do we, so I don't mean to sound
unsympathetic when I say that a few lack a little bit of
discipline on this front.
I would expect the
business to start to increase rapidly over the next few
weeks as the Flat finishes and the big guns start bring
their novices out so all we ask is be patience and you
should be rewarded. For those of you who are having trouble
with email delays, we will be getting a cheap phone line
very soon.
1 October 2002
Just a bit of quick admin to let you
know a bit about the season.
The Flat Season has now ended and we
have made a total of £5,070 profit on the flat for
shareholders and the share price is at a healthy 5.94
The System Bets which ran from May
to September produced a total of 54 points profit during our
backing period. Some of the period was poor and didn't match
last year profit therefore we have decided to refund all
subscriptions to the people who hardly made profit. I was
pleased with the feedback and I thank you for you kind words
and I will email everyone personally who has sent comments.
All 2002 bets are on the site.
Only 30% of people took a refund
which has been done, if you have not received a refund to
your bank in 7days, let us know straight away. The other 70%
preferred to either take on the Novice bets for the Winter
or take a massive deduction on next years system bet fees.
If anyone is unhappy with anything we have done during the
season so far please don't hesitate to inform us. If you
haven't made up you mind what to do, don't worry take as
long as you wish, just let us know in your own time.
viding us with information. The
Novice information will close to new subscribers in one week
- 20 October 2002. If you want in go to the home page there
are 6 places left for the Novice and 20 for the Sportsman.
We are using a 60pt bank for
"The Novice" and a 40pt bank for "The
Sportsman, results page is set up.
30 September 2002
Just to round things off for
yesterday I did back Scotts View at 6-1 and main race was a
non runner. Henry Hall didn't feature and maybe I was a
little niave not looking closer at former noted horse
Peruvian Chief, but that horse has had many chances.
I have now finished backing totally
for SB for the Flat season we dabbled through September and
made around £250 profit which I was pleased with and with
that added to the total bank it makes a profit of just over
£5,000 for the season. This includes the profit for the
system bets which has also been added to the bank. The share
price is now at a very healthy 5.94 and I was pleased that
even before the system money was added the shareprice was at
an all time high for the season of 5.56. So you all might
like to get to your calculators and see the profit on your
original investment. For the original starters it is on a
massive 163% and for those who started in year 2 i.e April
2001 the profit on invetestment is 82%. This season so far
it is just under 20%. We are well on target to reach 6.10
before 1 April 2003 but overall it's been very tough.
The next paragraph is an apology to
the Non shareholders who joined us in July for the system
bets. Whilst we have made minimal profit. I feel we have let
you all down. I was confident we could make you a tidy sum
of money following these bets and it has been really tough
going and a few of you didn't last the course. Had we made
more profit we would have benefited considerably around now
due to the extra cash incentive we put on the subscriptions.
I do not feel we have done enough to deserve taking money
from you, therefore, if there is any subscriber who has
honestly followed our information and lost money please let
us know and you will be refunded NO QUESTIONS ASKED. If you
would rather receive a £75 reduction on NEXT SEASONS system
bets instead please inform us soonest. The system bets ended
up making us a level stake profit of 54 points and that by
anyone's standards is good. I do not feel we have had a
decent rub of the green and we naturally look forward to
bettering next year. Also next year we intend to promote
well before and close 1 May 2003. That way we will all be in
it together.
The same offer applies to next year
also where all fees are refundable if a clients feels they
have not had value for money.
Thank you for all you comments the
board will not be updated on a daily basis but I will let
everyone know what is going on still of course. If anyone
does want any help we are always around.
So it's over to the Novice and the
Sportsman from 1 October 2002, and later we may bring our
laying system back in.
Sunday 29 September 2002
0200 We flattered to deceive didn't
we. Our big priced selection ran ok for a while and things
looked promising, until the horse had to go faster and
instead lost the bottle and I think finished just about
last. The price was too short on Rose of Spring and never
looked backable. Thankfully, it didn't dominate.
Last couple of days no system bets
and I do want to play but I feel I'm going through the
motions. Henry Hall 3.10 is coming down to Ascot and seems
very well in if he repeats the run behind Absent Friends
last time out. Perfect Storm 3.45 is taken to get revenge on
Oakley Rambo, and Lady Zonda franked the form at Haydock
today. Price seems fair.
Finally may do Scotts View but
Charley Bates will have some of our money at a big price.
Had a wasted trip to Longchamp in a weak Group 3 but did
enough to feature today if Scott's View has an off day.
No systems bets and sorry it's short
but more pressing things..like bed!!
Saturday 28 September 2002
1000 I must say straight away
that "The Novice" will probably be having his
first chase bet of the season, and get ready, because it is
likely to be a maximum ew bet of 4 points in total. This is
why we have a 60 point bank so don't worry.
I also placed a £150 on USA to win
the Ryder Cup at 2.10. This has to be well worth the
interest although it appear the USA are playing like
plonkers at the moment but whats done is done.
Yesterday saw both system bets
beaten and Friar Tuck rubbing salt into the wounds, but I
felt we deserved Greenslades and it is nice when painstaking
form study rewards ones efforts, and I actually backed it
again at 9-1 so we were reward with a beautiful 6p rise in
the share price which is nice as it is the final few days,
as everything for once went to plan.
Today sees firm ground all over the
place so I feel favourite backers will win the day so it is
difficult to find something in most of the races, but I do
feel we must play on 2 bets one at Ascot and the other at
Haydock. When a horse gets a new lease of life at this time
of the year you should really follow it and this is the case
with one horse at Haydock called Rose of Spring 2.20, my
only regret is that the price is too short, so I will wait.
It is the likely winner but I want a better return for my
risk and was abit surprised at the current 3-1 odds...will
wait out for later.
The other bet I have for everyone
today is a beauty and I really think this will go very close
indeed, the only thing that has hacked me off is that the
days system bet is in the same race, but I have still backed
this to win nearly a grand...flip I hear people say, at this
time of the year!! but don't worry the price was 33-1 and
the horse is Serieux 3.40 Let me tell you now, win or lose,
this horse is most definitely not a 33-1 chance and I would
suggest everyone has a dabble at a big price whatever else
you fancy. This type of bet is my trademark and what I feel
decent form study is all about, although with it being
September would have not played seriously in the old days
and aren't now. Why is it my type of bet??? It was marked
down as a noted horse after winner a B handicap with
consummate ease at York off 95 in May. I would normally hope
the horse runs again before the end of August to take
advantage of a starred horse, but sadly it didn't happen.
Ran ok in unsuitable conditions next time when beaten by
Common World rated 110 and didn't feature last time in a
handicap at Goodwood..a race I feel was merely a warm up for
today. This horse was considered Group Class and you would
question that maybe but it is entered in a Group 3 in
Ireland and it did run it's first race in the Greenham. So
the jury is out on that until after today.
I would love this to run well, it
has been lightly raced and we have a belter of a price.
Friday 27 September 2002
0500 Up with the lark ready for the
Ryder Cup. No interest for SB in the end and if anyone does
want to see why, go and have a look at the really good
thread on the message board. Bit unfortunate yesterday with
Desraya who we backed at 14-1. I think would have won over
six furlongs but the winner...good god ran a stinker 24hours
previous and not a word spoken for the outsider of 17
runners. Glad we were pipped for second cos that would have
hacked me off finishing second to that.
Today we have what looks like a well
handicapped horse in it's first handicap. It is Greenslades
which some kind person matched at 8.0. Why do I think it is
well handicapped? If you go back along way to April this ran
in a hot maiden behind Indian Country. Green Line was also
in the race and got left behind but has since progressed to
a decent mark of 88 which is about right. The handicapper
gave Greenslades a handicap mark of 80. I personally would
have given him more despite only beating a moderate
handicapper at Odds on on Aug 30. The distance was five
lengths but could have been double and after a long lay you
would not have expected that unless the horse was pretty
decent. You would also expect an improvement but the
handicapper could appear to be unfair so he gets a lenient
80. The maiden winner Indian Country is now 108. This is not
a rule of thumb of course but if you knew that Greenslades
had improved in a similar way to Indian country you would be
looking at a mark of about 94. Ok I appreciate we don't know
that but even a moderate amount of improvement should give
him a mark of at least the same as Green Line. My view has
always been that if you get a particularly unrated horse it
will normally win in it's first few runs in a handicap if
shown such good form in maiden company. Had this horse been
with a more fashionable trainer I feel it would have a much
higher rating. It's a tough race and Johnie Eboneezer is the
only horse that I feel will give ours a race as the 50-1
shot Rose of Spring that JE beat at Goodwood beat our system
horse Be My Tinker the other day. I was pretty pissed of at
that because I felt I should have noticed the drop in class
but got side tracked by having a system bet.
There is just the one I want
interest in at Haydock and I cannot turn the price down
here. I have had a small amount at 16-1 about Unshaken. This
has Dean McKeown on board who I hope is booked to do a job,
because this horse must be held for a late pounce. I will
risk it will do it today at such a decent price for a
terrifically well handicapped horse that has a very good
turn of foot when it is on song.
I have also done one in the 5.35 at
Redcar. Bit specualative this but Halcyon Magic is such bad
value even if you take into account he is 5 pounds well in.
Friar Tuck would sicken me if it won having been beaten a
head at a big price when we were on. The form hasn't been
franked so 5-1 ish wouldn't be good value for me. The one I
like is Snow Bunting, fantastic turn of foot and is lowed in
class and has only been raised to a 2 pound higher
mark than his best winning mark. You have to look closely
and wonder why this is 12-1. Unless I'm way off mark this
should feature. Not much outlay and we are looking at just
over 1p loss on the share price if we draw a blank. I know I
keep harping on here but keep it small. If you want to try
and win big place a very small EW treble.
2 systems bets and will I be
cheering these on..I really want to finish well on these, so
every finger is crossed.
Thursday 26 September 2002
1100 No show yesterday with our
info, both Mythical King and Rita's Rock Ape not being able
to dominate. I was a little surprised that noone picked up
on Castleshane's barging at the first bend. It is so
important to get the rail and Mythical King seemed to sulk
after that. Rita's Rock Ape should definitely be backed next
time. This horse normally gets a flyer and simply got left
at the start. These are not excuses just facts, Rita's ran
very well considering but I appreciate that doesn't help.
The system bets again did ok so don't be too down although a
couple did managed 7-2 a place on Betfair with Blue Star
which was good judgment for a horse that ended up 6-1 from
an early 12-1. Didn't help us though as we lose 2 points at
a crucial time for us.
No system bets today and I have
played for us on the 4.35 at Ponte. I've taken 2 against the
field and I'm pretty sure both will go close. Can I stress
the outlay is £30 which is not even half a pence on the
share price so please taking this into account cos I'm sick
of people telling me we are having a bad September....can I
stress we are NOT. If people are overstaking on bets at this
time of the year they only have themselves to blame so get
some flippin discipline. The 2 I've done are Mungo Park and
Desraya, both of which have been losers when turned down at
shorter prices. Today is when we back at the right price and
hopefully will get a small reward.
IMPORTANT INFO!!!
I need some feed back on this. I am
not a golf expert, nor am I a fan of backing odds on on
horses or anything for that matter, however, one of my
shareholders has placed a 5 grand bet on USA to win the
Ryder Cup, he is of the opinion that it is the easiest money
he will earn in 3 days this year. The reason why I am
posting this is that he has said that I should stop pussy
footing around and place half of our money on this one bet,
because I will regret it on Sunday night, and by Saturday I
will get most of it back through covers.
My first thought was no way, it is
just not the thing I would dream of doing, but then I
thought, am I doing an injustice to shareholders we could
maybe risk a grand, personally I wouldn't, because my policy
is to try and take as much of the gambling out of backing,
and this bet would clearly be pure gambling in it's worst
form, although I have to admit it will make me want to glue
myself to the television.
I leave it to you, the bet is a
grand on USA to win the Ryder Cup. If I get any severe
objections it will be NO BET. In shareholder terms it
amounts to around a 20p per share loss if Europe win. No
don't think I'm being unpatriotic here, I am only interested
in making money. Replies soonest please.
Wednesday 25 September 2002
0100 Got a bit of a bollocking from
a few of you today who missed the winner because I didn't
put out an email. I was very busy and as there were no
system bets I didn't bother. It is no use me saying the info
was on the site cos you have become used to getting it daily
but if nothing arrives I suggest it is wise to look at the
website. Hopefully it won't happen again, but as far as
shareholders were concerned they were on and it made up for
those recent big priced defeats, because I was convinced we
had got done again. I did managed a good price at 7-1 about
General Hawk and the share price rose a bit. We didn't back
Eton and I just knew Late Arrival would win that last
race..he is a sod that trainer he must have known by the way
it won.
With regard to today I like the last
race at Chester but there is system horse in this so I
wouldn't want to go mad because that bet is big enough and
has probably an equal chance with what I think will win. I
know some will ask so it's Mythical King. If this horse is
allowed to dominate it will go very close here. The last
time this horse ran at Chester was just over a year ago off
80. It got hammered but the previous June had won well off
78 when I backed it at a double figure price. Although the
horse seems well exposed we all know what Chester is like
and any signs of 2001 running would have this sewn up well
before the end. He must lead though so start worrying if he
gets taken on early. Definitely a decent bet at 12-1 which
we have taken.
One I do think has an excellent
chance today is Rita's Rock Ape 5.05 but sadly I could only
get a very small amount on at the price. This has been given
a brilliant opportunity and if she gets a fast start nothing
will get near. Came back to form at Donny last time when we
had Kangarilla Road which we were unlucky with and that
horse is sure to win again very soon. Rita's was barged out
of it and finished only a length behind Absent Friends who
turned the form book upside down against better rated horses
today at Beverley. Just shows how unlucky we were when AF
was a system selection as it goes and batters horse like
Repertory who is rated 108. Told you September was tough and
you just cannot compete with that.
Tuesday 24 September 2002
0100 Busy day tomorrow so have had a
quick look now and the Beverley card looks promising. 2
winners could come out of a decent York race on 8 September,
one is General Hawk 3.30 who can be a bit of an odd ball at
times but when on song is far better that anything he is
facing today. The other is Mehmass 5.00 who didn't last out
in that York race after poaching a big lead. If it scrapes
the paint today and kicks of that final bend it will takes
some catching, but I might have to have a saver on Pierpoint.
I'll never live it down if that drops in. Eton looks a
certainty today but the price will be short so it is
unlikely that we will risk it.
Nothing else and Newmarket card is
poor. No change to share price and not a significant outlay
today so go steady yourselves as usual.
No system bets today and goodness
who would have thought today's system selections would run
so bad...no a lot I can say really.
Monday 23 September 2002
1100 Today is interesting because we
have 4 system bets which is unusual for this time of the
year, and because the outlay on those four will be £160 I
don't feel it is worth getting too involved in the days
racing. I have backed Dennis Our Menace 3.35 Kempton at 12-1
though, despite not having brilliant conditions, but had it
had everything going for it I would have been looking at
half that price so I feel we must dabble a little.
Nothing more to add apart from it
may be worth putting the system bets in a small multiple,
all should run well.
Sunday 22 September 2002
1200 Nothing today of course but I
thought I'd just come on an apologise for missing Oakley
Rambo. I consider myself severely bollocked, it was hidden
there in the last race and I totally missed it. It just goes
to show how much things have changed though since I stopped
backing because it emphasises how much awareness is needed.
A 13-2 winner is so important the way I back, and with Far
Lane so so unlucky at double the starting price it just
summed up my day. Sorry about that. System bet was beaten
into 5th but ran well so a bit of bummer that race all told.
Share price down 1p.
We start on the last full week
tommorrow and I will take it easy and not risk more than 5p
on the shares in an attempt to increase the pot slightly.
That the whole week I mean.
Someone did ask me why I don't carry
on to the end of the season. Well it a miracle that I've
continued in September, but the answer is it is simply...we
would lose money!!
I'm looking forward to The Novice
and The Sportsman to entertain us for the next few months
and I may bring my laying system back in again.
Saturday 21 September 2002
0800 I felt I let a few down
yesterday because 3 people asked me about John O Groats and
although I didn't hopefully put them off, I couldn't be
confident about a horse I thought come good too early. More
frustrating was that it was a fraction off being a system
horse. Noted horses do seem to be running well but
unfortunately not making us any back end money. Can we do
obliged today?? There is only 9 days left before our system
cash is transferred to our shareholder bank which will see
the share price rise considerably, and I think we can safely
say we are not not going to lose this season, but more stats
on that will be given at the end. Last night I felt
14-1 about Caprichio for the Ayr Gold Cup was an excellent
price and I think it looks as though it may start favourite
which isn't a good sign as favourites have a poor record in
this race. However, no complaints and although Halmaherra is
weight to lose I still feel this is decent EW
opportunity ..if there is such a thing.
Last night I also backed our friend
Far Lane 3.40 Newbury at 12-1. This is such an unlucky horse
who I feel must be such a difficult ride, cos that can be
the only reason why it has not won. It should have won last
time but Hughes gave it too much to do, and if he rides
better this is the value bet of the day, but I won't be
disappointed if the system horse wins of course because it's
all going in the same pot and the system bet will in fact be
a bigger bet.
The bets bet of the day in my
opinion is away from the two main meetings and we have taken
6-1 about Deeper in Debt 4.30 Warwick. This horses run in an
E class last time look better that the company he is facing
today. Despite a better class race on paper, most of today's
runners are out of sorts and I feel this horse will stay
handy throughout and hang on.
Just the one system bet today which
is a good price and may be worth backing small at ante post
for the Cambridgshire aswell.
Friday 20 September 2002
0800 Well what a bugger, very
little went for us yesterday and we ended up losing a little
on the share price when it should have risen I feel. I was
far too busy to take much interest and I left prices of 7-2
and 7-1 on the exchanges for Soltaat and Kidznpaly, so I got
that totally wrong with Soltaat losing at 11-8 and Kidznplay
winning at 5-1. I see a few did Kidznplay and I'm sorry for
the confusion but some did think 5-1 was ok and as I didn't
actually stipulate a price they benefited. We didn't I'm
afraid and Friar Tuck was unlucky to lose by a head at 16-1
but it looked like Blue Velvet won with a bit in hand even
at that small margin. Incidentally Blue Velvet is running
again in the Silver Cup today but we will back against it.
The horse that I feel will win that Silver Cup is Gadansk
3.10 Ayr and we have backed it small at 33-1 and 7-1 a
place. We backed this when it ran blinders at Ripon in
both it's last 2 races so we must go with it. The latter was
when it was placed but won the race on the unfavoured near
side at 50-1. The form is rock solid and on this softer
ground looks a terrific bet that many seem to have forgotten
about. If I did have a worry it would be lasting the 6
furlongs but we will get a good run for our money, that I'm
sure. The only other that caught my eye was Hawkley in 5.45
at Nottingham but the price of 5-2 is reduculous.
Finally, system bet Halcyon Magic
won well which gives us a nice 15 point level stake profit
for September so far, and with the struggles of July and
August that is a welcome change for the people who have hung
in. We deserve it I feel. We have doubled the bank again but
not quite enough to double stakes as yet. There are NO
system bets today.
Thursday 19 September 2002
0100 Burning the midnight oil with
business at the moment and I have a tough day tomorrow so
I'm trying to find something to get us some cash as we enter
the last two weeks of the season. can't go into details but
everything seems a bit short to me. There is one outstanding
wager in the shape of Soltaat 4.25 Yamouth but the price is
too short. I have left some on the exchanges to see if it
gets matched but I doubt it will. It is not my style to back
a horse that has not yet proved it can win but at Folkstone
last time this horse would most certainly have won very easy
had the saddle not slipped as the horse moved up to make a
challenge at the furlong pole. The only think that can stop
this winning is him up there.
I wanted a couple of others too,
mainly Kidznplay who is being primed for a tilt and the
horse has perfect conditions but sorry price too short.
Colway Ritz has enough ability to defy a big rise in the
weights but price is stingy and Le Meridien might be backed
if around the 6-1 mark. Seems as though this horse might hug
that inner rail and kick off the bend.
The 2 horses we have definitely
backed are Friar Tuck 2.35 Ayr at 16-1 and Pierpoint 5.25
Yarmouth at 16-1. I have also put them in an EW double. Both
are well handicapped and have contested far better races
that this. As usual don't go mad it's September remember,
but we only need one of these to drop in and it pays our way
very comfortably.
Bad day for the system yesterday as
we drew a blank. Today there are 2 bets, one a very big
price which on the book has no chance, but shocks are common
place this month and it would be nice to get a reward.
Wednesday 18 September 2002
0100 Nothing I can pick out really
that is a decent enough price to be confident about but I
have taken a small bet at a very big price about Swnyford
Pleasure 3.55 Yarmouth. This horse generally runs in fits
and starts, often running well then not seeming to bother
for a few runs. It is certainly on a winning mark and the
price is very tempting due to a short price favourite which
happens to be a system horse. It does seem a bit odd to me
that this horse has by passed Beverley which is just down
the road from Malton, where he could have carried top weight
in a poor handicap. The trainer has had a terrible season so
far but this could just be a bit of value today, and nobody
trundles down that terrible A17 cum A47 without a damn good
reason. As usual don't go mad but we have this at such a
good price that the share price will rise nearly 8p if it
comes in, so it is definitely worth the risk.
Just a note to remind people to look
at the message board on the site at the moment because the
Sportsman has started to post. He has with some excellent
info about the Asian Handicap with regard to soccer. All a
bit double dutch for me but we are following this guy so it
is in everyone's interest to have a butchers. Also the
Novices is limbering up aswell with excellent FREE
information at the moment, so don't miss out on the current
opportunities available.
Three system bets today which look
promising, but not brilliant prices I'm afraid.
Tuesday 17 September 2002
0800 Lost 1p on the share price as
we got the 4.40 totally wrong with the exception of the
favourite, how that ended up at 11-4 god knows. Both system
bets won which was a relief because you do not want short
prices like that beaten. No system bets today and nothing
worth "losing" on today so it's looks like I'll be
forced to do my VAT instead...great!!!
Monday 16 September 2002
1000 Had an email regarding
yesterday's selection and because I didn't have time to
posts my my reasons, I will so it today. Please bear in mind
my reply was BEFORE the race.
This is not all of it but it is the
important bits.
"One thing that baffles me
is, how do you arrive at a horse that deserves your
attention i.e one that goes in your notebook?
Looking at todays selection
Oakley Rambo. It has only won a class F off a 79 OR (81
today) whereas Pentecost is a B grade winner off 91 (93
today) and Lady Zonda, a D grade winner off 83 (82 today)
The RP prices make OR 11/2, Pent
8/1 and LZ 10/1. The forecast betting obviously sides with
your selection, am I missing something here?
Realising that it is your family
Sunday, I apologise, and dont expect a reply, again if you
wish to use this message for "training" purposed,
be my guest
Kind Regards
MB
PS My membership has been worth
the money, just to have your daily input
First of all the membership
still is, in all intents and purposes FREE, you money is
still here and making steady profit despite a tough few
months.
I will be brief, cos I want to send
you this before the race is run, cos afterwards it loses
credibility, but you will get the gist. I didn't have time
to explain the bet but it stems from my note book entries
regarding the Newmarket run (after along lay off) behind Pie
High who I rated higher than the handicapper, and the 4th in
a very hot handicap on 25 May 2002. Total Turtle winning
yesterday meant that Oakley Rambo would have to be unlucky
not to have won so far. Forget that F class win that means
nothing, it was as a 2 year old. Only judge, like for like.
Pentecost did excellent winning the hunt cup but it will not
win again off that mark, and although it has been running in
b handicaps, it has been running badly, so that will be over
the top now. Lady Zonda will not win off 82. Stoute horse is
too short for a bet off 88 in only his second handicap,
although it could win. Courageous Duke couldn't win off it's
current mark in a handicap so should struggle here.
Astrocharm should not defy a penalty. The dangers for me are
Selective and Ace of Hearts, so 7-1 about OR is a good
price.
Overall, OR is the only horse in
form that is on a winning mark. I appreciate it's hard Mike,
but you also must bear in mind that this is a very small bet
due to the value. This would NOT have my personal money had
I still been backing as it doesn't fill ALL criteria for a
serious bet.
Finally, when you judge races, 3
year old handicaps are the hardest because it is difficult
to gauge improvement but a horse that has not won a handicap
will do so eventually when it is consistently running well
of it's current mark and the handicapper doesn't appear to
be penalising it. I think it will run close today.
Hope that clears things up a little.
Back to today:
I hope that helped a few to
understand how I came about yesterdays selection. The key
points are the amount of horse that I felt could not win and
I had credible reasons for them not winning. Ok whilst I
could pat myself on the back and say you got that bit right,
we didn't win money, however, if you do adopt an policy that
you end up with a chosen few there is more chance of you
appreciating the value of your selection. As I said before,
you are clutching at straws a little at this time of the
year and anyone would do well to win money, but with a bit
of luck you can get it right sometimes, but you must resist
backing short. When the system bet was a non runner I
couldn't pick between noted horses Connect and John O Groats,
and both were too short anyway. We lost out there refusing a
bet. Material Witness hurt a little as that horse was the
only horse emailed to me as part of my original 10 from May.
I felt that horse was over the top, and to cap the day
Oakley Rambo was backed and did not run to form. You cannot
get despondent though we are purely trying to tick things
over and give some interest for shareholders.
I want to carry the thread on from
the previous email because it just so happens that Mike
asked for info on a race that we have backed in today.
Dear Mick
Have to mail you on the 4.40 at
Bath, If I am on the right track, I can not see beyond 3
horses Twice upon a Time, Million Percent, Woodbury
The horse I think is cracking
value is MP at 8/1, taking on board what you said about
comparing like with like, as a 2yo it has competitively
contested A&B grade, although has not won at 3, its
appears to be coming to hand with reasonable runs (hampered
in last 2 races). So has Mr Burke got a plot going?
Hope I am not taking up your
valuable time.
MB
My reply:
First of all, I don't think Mr Burke
has a plot on, it may just be a question of the horse now
getting near it's true mark. His horses have performed badly
and are coming back to form a little, but it's funny you
should pick this race Mike because we have done one but
unfortunately it is not one of your three. However, you will
be pleased that I rate 2 of yours the dangers. Million
Percent is a good choice. Ran excellent last time out and
beat horses higher on current ratings. It is obvious that
this horse has been too highly tried and you have to worry
about taking current odds that it will finally win. If you
have 8-1 that's just ok, anything less and it's a struggle I
feel. Woodbury is a cursing horse for me we should have had
it when it won at a big price so I would be reluctantly to
pick that so short.
The horse that I have backed for
Sharholders is Zietlos. I managed 14-1 about that last night
and that is terrific value. I will explain why. The winning
run was a battle I watched the race and the horse overcame
trouble in running to stick his head out on the line. He was
raised 6 pounds and ran badly at Sandown. This happens a
lot, Sandown is not a course to trust form. He then went to
Lingfied and finished 5th. That run will have been hidden by
most people but if you look close you will see that all the
4 horses in front were far better in ability and the horse
was only beaten 4 lengths under a penalty. If this run is
repeated today off a rating of 49 it will be very hard for
the top horse to give us 2 stone because I think the
handicapper has been very fair when reassessing the horse.
On those lines the current price of Million Percent is
judged as poor.
The one I would be worried about is
Shadey Deal, and whilst it has no winning form on fast
ground it has run ok on it and the first run for Milton is
interesting as Fitzimmons has chosen this one to ride from
the three entries.
Overall it is the 14-1 that has made
me back Zietlos 4.40 Bath
Finally, when I said like for like,
I didn't mean involve 2 year old form. I meant handicap
similarities, I would never used 2 year old form in picking
a winner from any handicap race. Far more 2 year olds go
downhill than uphill.
I will be putting this on site
shortly so you haven't cause me extra work:-)
Nearly forgot, we have taken 5-1
about Moyne Pleasure 5.20 Mussleburgh who won so easily
under terrible conditions we have to follow again despite a
change in the weather. Also 2 system bets that only have to
repeat previous runs to win, prices are shorter than I would
like but we go with it of course.
Sunday 15 September 2002
1000 Just incase anyone asks we
didn't do Wunders Dream singly but did do it treble the odds
one winner in a Lucky 15. A few did do that though which was
nice but no change to the share price. Just the one piece of
information on noted horse Oakley Rambo 3.50 Sandown, which
I have to confess I missed when it ran second last time. I
was relieved too as it should have won after started it's
effort too late. I feel we should have this today at a good
price of 7-1. Nothing more to add due to time restraints but
there is one system bet today also which could be ok.
Finally, a reminder that we have
almost reached out target for clients for the novice winter
season. I will be putting a message out to the public soon
so if any NON shareholders want in just let me know
soonest
Saturday 14 September 2002
1000 A complete blank knocked 2p of
the share but I was only disappointed with Red Lion really.
Dens Joy ran ok and will be persevered with but overall a
normal September Friday 13th sort of day. Today looks
difficult enough without getting the prices either, we have
noted horse Flak Jacket, Far Lane, Millenium Force and
Calcutta all running. Wunders Dream is strongly fancies back
at 5 furlongs. So what should we do? Leave alone or play in
a small multiple. I think I already know that most of you
are gluttons for punishment so we go small on a multiple.
Treat this for what it is and go steady as usual we are
simply preserving what we have accumulated.
No system bets either today so all
in all a quiet day and nothing more to add. Oh someone ask
me who would win the St Ledgers...well just back Bandari and
Vinnie Roe. I know they are short, but they did ask for the
winners and not whether they were good bets or not.
Friday 13 September 2002
1000 If you are superstitious you
should really leave today alone but I cannot take any notice
of that today because there does look at least a couple of
decent bets that fit a nice scenario even at this time of
the year, so we will do some small business. Just before I
start there is a quick mention of yesterday where Deceitful
ran excellent before being just touched of as the post came.
First of all we have to play with
Red Lion 5.25 Goodwood. This horse was given a soft lead and
a poor ride by the second to run out a convincing winner in
a decent C class handicap at Epsom. All the mugs got on this
at Chester next time when the horse simply did not cope with
the tight turns and faded when beaten by a horse he thrashed
in the Epsom race. Many times I have said Chester form
is unique and not to compare, and that was a perfect
example. That was not his true running of course we knew
that, so you must expect it to perform again in this poor
race over the beautiful Goodwood course which is bound to
suit more. I'm not sure whether the price is ok now but I
took a little of the 10-1 that was available last night, but
anything over 8-1 looks ok to me.
A better value bet though appears to
be earlier in the card where it could be the start of the
Den's Joy Autumn Season. (4.15 Goodwood) My only concern
about this is the draw which hasn't been kind, but believe
me this horse is ready for a touch. Why!! Only a year ago it
took a handicap mark of 80 to stop this horse completing a
five timer, and it is rare for a horse who has had such
success the previous year to plummet so quick. Today's race
is an E class handicap and the last time Den's Joy ran in
such a poor race it bolted up having lost about 7 lengths at
the start. Ok there is no guarantee that it will win today
of course but I have just backed this at 25-1 and if anyone
has a few quid spare after backed all these short prices,
they would do a lot worse that risking some on this horse
off a mark of 62. I am sure the trainer will have run this
in better class to get ready for a tilt in the ring and she
knows when this horse is right, she has proved that before.
This is an outstanding bet in my opinion.....if it produces
anything near last year's September form it will bolt up.
Another horse that should run well
on this terrific card is Dumuran 2.35 but we can't back em
all can we?? I have to admit the 8-1 is tempting but have
refrained at the moment, but don't let that put you off if
you fancy the horse yourself, the horse has put in 2
excellent performances on this track and if it is a going
day should go close.
Over at Donny there are some equally
good opportunities but before you know it you could end up
losing quite a bit, which often happens in September, maybe
perhaps we might just have to do a multiple to cut down the
costs. The 2.15 race is a must for 3 year olds and I don't
really know why but what I do know is that if you follow the
older horses in this race you have an 85% chance of
losing based on recent form. So both 3 year olds could be
backed and you would win based on that, however, I feel that
the Stoute horse could turn tables on York running, which
was an odd race, and Kasthari looks a good thing to me at
7-2. Mesmeric ran excellent at Chester after along layoff
but this is different and might not feature as well. We
haven't backed in this race I must add.
In the big 2 year old race, I
appreciate the Thommos of this world thinks the Loder horse
is unbeatable, but from a backing point of view surely
Salcombe is better backed at a minimum evens a place that
the Loder one to win. I think 12-1 is available on that and
it could actually win it. No play for us though.
The best bet at Doncaster for me is
in the last at Doncaster. A really competitive affair but
Kangerilla Road (4.55) is a handicapper that looks to be on
the upgrade. Produced a terrific burst of speed to win in
better class last time and a repeat would go very close.
Price is ok just at 7-1 and we have played. The only
sad thing is that it clashes with a system horse.
Overall, a lot to take in but please
I stress don't go mad we are backing at great value today
that is why we have to play, a complete blank will knock 2p
off the share price that's all, and I think we have great
value for money, with Den's Joy hopefully giving us the most
pleasure at little risk.
Two system bets at big prices..get
those fingers crossed.
Finally, a reminder that we have
almost reached out target for clients for the novice winter
season. I will be putting a message out to the public soon
so if any NON shareholders want in just let me know
soonest
Thursday 12 September 2002
0300 No system bets again today and
I'm just finishing off a trail bundle so it's an all night
session for me tonight. Very little study and just following
up a few notes. Deceitful ran very well behind Attache last
Saturday, and a repeat performance will see the horse go
close, had the rest well beaten when placed. Managed 9-1
which is ok, and I have just put a small amount on
Ragamuffin too at a big price. Both horses run in the 4.55
Donny and won't alter the share price unless one wins.
Can't see anything but if Calcutta
wins that Group Race I'll have a fit!!!
Did managed a little at 6's with
Council's Opinion yesterday and the share price rose again
slightly which is nice considering the no bet days on the
system. Seven No Trumps ran well until fading in to
6th..still on the list that one.
Wednesday 11 September 2002
0600 Have to do Seven No
Trumps in the Portland 2.50 Donny. Seems out of sorts but I
just know this is going to grab a decent handicap before the
season is out and at 25 -1 we must play. Has bags of ability
and needs a fast pace which he should get. Although there is
debates about the draw. This course more often than not will
favour the stands side so I prefer high. In fact it would
not surprise me if high numbers filled the first three
places. So if you did want to do a combination tricast for a
bit of end of season fun, just pick the top 6 in the draw
and play small.
The other one I looked close at was
Counsel's Opinion. 4.55 Donny. This is a really tough
handicapper and the form of the maiden win of the 3 years
look suspect and you wouldn't risk money trying to win off
mid eighties in only their second race. We have not backed
CO yet due to price, but we should get a little on a 6-1 at
least. Be strict with price though against the potential
improvers.
No system bets today and sorry it's
short very busy day.
Tuesday 10 September 2002
0800 Still having a few problems
with NTL but hopefully it will be sorted mid morning.
Nothing for shareholders today. We got a bit stuffed with
the weather so we cannot really complain other than the
official going didn't change until half through the
afternoon which was poor admin on behalf of the courses.
Very pleasurable result for the system yesterday which
crawled back everything. Here I am complaining that we
haven't had a "normal" big priced selection in an
age and bingo in it goes. We are back to double stakes and a
very nice 65 points level stake profit. With only just over
2 weeks to go don't be surprised if another biggie drops in
at this "shocking" time of the year.
Two system bets today and due to
doubling the bank again, if the first one does not win
reduce back to single stakes.
Monday 9 September 2002
I CANNOT SEND EMAILS DUE TO A
MAJOR SERVICE PROBLEM WITH NTL. I will put system bets
on here at 1145 if not restored. Sorry for the
inconvenience.
0830 Difficult today with 3 system
bets which don't look promising but we still do them. I have
been disappointed with the bigger priced selections, they
have just not performed. We generally get at least one a
month to boost the confers and nothing now since June.
The only thing I have done for
shareholders is back Halcyon Magic 4.50 Newcastle. This won
a handicap maiden in great style in July was then made
favourite at this course and I hope just had an off day
because didn't repeat anywhere near the run previous.
Obviously a risk but at 11-1 a good one I feel, and sorry it
clashes with a system bet, but don't go mad anyway.
Apart from that nothing, yesterday
we drew a blank cos everything we did didn't run, so that
was a blessing when I looked at the results.
Sunday 8 September 2002
Hi Everyone
0830 Blank day yesterday which was a
bit of a blow especially after getting 8-1 about John O
Groats. The only thing we ended up doing was being shamed by
the Glamour Tipster who selected another winner.
Today is quiet, the only thing I've
done is take some 33-1 about Greenaway Bay 3.40 York. Seems
such good value off a mark of 56 and could be aimed at an
Autumn campaign, so might pop in at a big price in the next
few runs, especially if the ground gets a bit softer.
One system bet which we need but it
does look promising and should feature.
Saturday 7 September 2002
1000 I am going to come out with all
the boring stuff again I'm afraid. I do understand that
people would like more action but it's difficult to change
the ways of a life time. I have never seriously backed
during September for years simply because I would lose, and
as myself and Daz are effectively in charge of your savings
we don't intend to start now. I has been a hard season if we
do reduce the profits over the next month or so I can assure
it will not be much. If anyone is following the info treat
it for what it's worth. As you know by now I would
always advise backers to avoid the hot pots in a handicap
but at this time of the year I would postively ram it home.
If you were brave enough to oppose every favourite in a
handicap between today and the end of the flat season, I
would guarantee you would make money. It is my intention to
go for the shocks with SB money so we are going to need some
luck of course, but please be careful.
We backed Parkside Pursuit 2.50 the
other day and you knew you fate immediately the horse left
the stalls, one of those things that you cannot control, if
I didn't have some cash on this and it won today I would be
gutted. It does have the best draw and if the horse did
return to summer form it would go very close, but you have
to bear in mind that as this is the "over the top"
time of the year and this might be one that need to be put
away. However, the price warrants a small bet so we do it at
25-1. Sorry there is also a system horse in the race too but
that's just the way it goes. I feel the best value I have to
get a winner for us at good price is Bold raider 3.55
Kempton and I have done it at 8-1 on the exchanges. The
problem is here is that although there are dangers it is
worth taking on those dangers and risking the extra points
you get by taking an early price. I couldn't back this at
the current odds that the bookies are offering, so anyone
following information on here must appreciate that it is the
combination of both the selection and the price that makes
me risk our cash, and that is even more relevant in
September and October. Had I not been doing SB I am sure
that I would just be relaxing somewhere well away from
racing, but don't get me wrong I enjoy what I'm doing
despite the up's and downs. I actually think there is no one
better at getting prices, as good as maybe, but not better,
and I did have an interesting Email yesterday evening
regarding our friend the Novice on this very point, which
I'll show soon.
One of things I have done often in
handicaps is avoid a horse at a short price, watch how it
runs, hope it gets beaten, and back it next time. A great
example of this was a situation at Chester last year, in my
first serious bet of the year. While today's example,
which I will give soon, does not constitute a massive EW
bet, because, 1. I don't back anymore, and 2. I would never
have a big bet in September, but a few have asked for my
learning scenarios and I could not demonstrate the finer
points on have a big bet that the follow example from June
2001. Here goes and I'm not bragging honest, don't forget I
lose alot!!
Here goes from 9 June 2001
"On to today, I turned down Brevity at Chester, because dispite everyone thinking it was a good price, it was crap in my opinion...no more to be said...but I’m on it today at 8-1 EW that’s the difference, it looks a very safe bet at EW and as some know the money I risk, that’s the reason why I back EW…I know I would win more overall, but one year I lost a lot of money not backing EW and it hurt, so I’m not greedy..as you know it has nothing to do with value…if I was still using my preliminary bank it would be a win bet only..hope you understand that.I am also on Repertory at 6-1 win only, haven't time to explain but this bugger is a very fast horse when it want's to be, and I fancy it strongly without risking too much money because I want more on Brevity.
If it wins I will increase my bet on Brevity Adobe is too short so is Mount Abu, however, the best winner today is Topton at Donny..now that has pissed me off greatly because the field is far too big to risk a massive bet but I have 6-1 which is what I wanted..my boys have hit it I think..so the price might have gone. I was hoping it would run in a field of 12 or 13 for me to get max benefit. I have had just a small win bet on the horse…so you see, there are many factors that constitute a bet for me……it was always very difficult when I ran a service, because I was always frightened to say what was a massive bet and what wasn’t simply because I couldn’t handle clients disappointments deep down..stupid I know but's that's me....it’s hard…I personally didn’t worry too much but it’s hard running a service..but there is no substitute for backing yourself..I even prefer it to being a bookie. So all in all an exciting day for most..but Brevity is the one that will win me big money..the rest, well decide for yourself."
10
June 2001
"Well what can I say after yesterday..I woke up this morning a “little” bit richer and had to endure a memory that I’d not experience since last August. In that I mean, the shudder of adrenlin that takes your breath away, my eyes started to see spots and it actually made me feel quite ill, it was a double wammy really because Successful Betting had also benefited although to a much smaller degree..so I was feeling rough but satisfied. Someone mentioned a while back that I was the type of backer that waits for the right opportunity with a certain horse rather than study form, breeding etc. that is true to a certain extent but I wish it was as easy as that. A lot of it is down to luck because you hope that all the conditions fit into place and you get a price as well, and then the horse has to run to the form you have assessed it to win. That is the perfect scenario. With Brevity, it is frustrating when you see a horse win 4 times and you haven’t been on, but it still has to be in the fore front of your mind. There was a lot of garbage written about Brevity, and many tipsters who backed it at Chester and I think there were about 10, have not really grasped the finer points of handicapping, they might think they have, but they haven’t. I still have much to learn at my age, but I have the advantage of that dreaded old man’s word experience. I know through that experience what it takes to win a race on a particular mark compared with it’s last run, and I assess a price on those chances, and if I am not sure or I have not physically seen a horse perform at a particular mark..serious money stays in my pocket. That’s the only way to gauge real improvement. I cannot emphasis that enough, but I still am a firm believer that it is a skill, and that’s why many stay away from handicapping. Or just guess. There is a learning exercise coming up here.
There was much talk about Brevity staying 7 furlongs, but the answer
was not in the previous race at Brighton because it had beaten sod all at odds on in a hack canter, so from a form or assessment point of view the race was invalid. So you really don’t know if it likely to stay 7 furlongs against good handicappers at Chester. The Racing Post was absolutely right to be concerned about Brevity staying 7 furlongs..I most definitely was, especially off a mark a massive 12 lbs more than that the race at Brighton. Someone actually said that because this horse had run over further he was likely to stay 7 furlongs..that was an unbelievably bad piece of advice. You cannot compare a sprinter with middle distance, just because a horse stays 1m4f does not mean that he will stay 7 furlongs flat out, you personally try running round the block twice at medium pace and then run round the bloody block as fast as you can as see how far you stay..it is exactly the same…so when assessing whether you thing a horse will stay in future listen to those words ringing in your head….Brevity was a bad bet at Chester that nearly paid off and had paid off I would not be in the position I am now….a lot better off. They would have been patting them selves on the back for selecting a bad bet which would have cost me a fortune. Think about that closely. I was praying that horse would run a belter and get beaten because that way I then KNOW for definite it can win off 73, something that I wasn’t prepared to risk before at such a stupid price. Brevity ran a remarkable race, in fact I’m not a speed expert but he set the race up for Parker who raced nearly 2 seconds below standard. I am so grateful to Parker and so should all the 10 tipsters who backed Brevity…because they should now be in a great position, to have positive info that this horse will take one hell of lot of beating of the same mark..even if it runs at 7 furlongs…I knew the horse was entered at Epsom over 6 furlongs, I was just praying it would run…Epsom is a very fast course as we know…I had just seen with my own eyes a brilliant Brevity run at a tight track Chester, and the open spaces at Epsom would constitute a serious winning opportunity. Now the thing that shocked me was the early morning price..I just could not understand it…had Brevity won at Chester it would have had a six pound penalty, all the paid for tipsters would have gone for it and it would have probably been 7-4 favourite. Bugger me this was like taking candy from a baby, and the most remarkable end to all this only one of the 10 tipsters who gave it at Chester gave it again at Epsom…I find that staggering but above all worrying for punters who follow paid for tipsters….with apologies to any paid for tipsters who read this…don’t be annoyed, be grateful and learn. The draw at Epsom is never a problem on firm ground and it is a low priority on the round course.
Overall, I have scenarios planned like this regularly but it is rare all the conditions come together to constitute a serious bet…yesterday I was lucky and hopefully you all were too.
I didn’t have a big bet on Topton because I wanted more on Brevity, and NO I didn’t do a double, very rare for me during this period..a double is for a person who doesn’t just prefer one loser he prefers two."
We're
back in the present now but I hope you found a few points in
there because I didn't have many big bets, generally between
10-15 in a season but everything had to be spot on, and I
had it down to a fine art that I could lose on 13 of them
and still not lose overall. Getting money on at the price
was difficult and it was heavy on the ticker but I did ok,
and nothing could confirm my strategy better than the year
before when 8 of my first serious bets were beaten, and I
felt like topping myself (joking or course... not the
losing, the topping)
Anyway, I've
waffled enough, and I hope I'm giving you a winner here,
obviously not in the Brevity league as I said but will win
us a few hundred. I had us a small bet on Connect at Chester
simple because I had to oppose the favourite at 6-4 which
was John O'Groats and I had noted Connect as future winner
and nearly missed the bet. When I watch the race I was
pleased to see JOG squeezed an the start you cannot afford
that happening at Chester, and whilst the horse ran on it
would not have beaten the winner but it still ran right up
to his mark, and without the mishaps and problems in running
would have gone very much closer. John O' Groats is hold up
horse who invariable get trouble in running and that has
clearly been demonstrated at Chester, Carlisle and Beverly
where favourite backers have done their money, when I feel
on at least 2 occasions should have won. I feel haydock has
enough room for this not to happen, and at 8-1 we have a
good opportunity to capitalise on it's best form. Remember,
it's September and I will obviously do a typical amount of
tipster hedging, but on form it must go close despite a big
field.
Well I hope you
have enough to go on but I must mention this email about the
novice. I would print it because the guy won't let me use
cos it isn't really a learning scenario, But to cut along
story short. This guy stated that The Novice was waffling
about getting 10-1 about Nayyir for the Sprint Cup. Now one
of the key issues about backing as I've said many times, is
getting the best price for your selection. If you are
picking it you should do that, because you are going to get
in first. I do know tipsters who put a price out and give
themselves a pat on the back and add a few points on, say
the have backed it at larger odds just to boost their
encapsulated egos. Let me just say this, pro backers
do not do this, some paid for tipsters do, it makes them
look better than they are. When I search around for prices
for shareholders I normal get the best in the end...Gudlage
excepted..bollocks!! The Novice is the same, if you follow
his info you are bound to get an inferia price, but you
should make profit to SP but not as much as him. That is the
difficulty when you are following a professional who
livelihood depends on his success. The chap that doubted the
10-1 available has now received the following Email from
Stanley via Successful Betting, so in future if The Novice
says he got a price, rest assured he did.
Dear Mr Taylor
With reference to your e-mail, I
can confirm the price for NAYIR with
Stanleybet on Wednesday 4
September was 10/1 from 10.00.14 seconds until
16.43.20.
Hope that clears thing up. For what
it's worth 10-1 EW is a terrific bet, it's now 4-1. As a win
bet I don't agree though because this race hasn't been won
by a horse for ages that is not proven at the trip, so the
major point to the winner must be it has to have won over 6
furlongs. I don't back in these races and Keyboy knows more
than me so I hope he wins it. Surely Three Points is good
value at 16-1 though mate :-)
Friday 6 September 2002
0200 Couldn't sleep so I thought I
would try to find something for tomorrow that we can dabble
with. I looked at a few but could find anything that jumped
out apart from Gudlage in the 5.10 at Haydock. This tempts
me to have a bigger bet. We did a multiple on 16 August 2001
and I rated this horse as the best bet of the day after it
beat Gargolye Girl at Pontefract. Don't even think about
ruddy Gargolye Girl, if you knew how close I was to doing
that at York, and if it had been a later race I might have
done, but we can all say that. A former loser for us as
Shareholder bet and one of our famous system seconds. I have
a thing about first races on the card always have
had...stupid I know but we all have our quirks and the horse
winning at 33-1 hurt I can tell you. We didn't back
Gudlage as a single because there just was so much to
choose on the day that we were bound to choose the wrong one
and we ended up just playing fun backing to small stakes.
The horse ran a blinder to finish 3rd at Beverley after
coming off the pace and the horse ran the last mile with a
slipping saddle. I did wonder why the horse didn't do as I
expected last time. If that slipping saddle info is correct
this horse should win doing handsprings against today's
opposition. It is simply far superior to them all and with
the ground nice and firm I am sure this horse will jump off
in the lead and make all unchallenged...how about that for
confidence. We have it at 11-4. I don't normally take a
price that short the night before but I have it at 6-4 so I
have to play. I might just do Stallone at 25-1 very small
aswell as that is the only one that I can't rule out. Share
price will go down just 1p if this fails to perform, that
includes what we did today with Miltons two. Currency ran
fine and should win if dropped slightly in class and the
firm ground remains.
We have 2 system bets at the moment.
Sometimes when I check out the bets on the racing post
website it is possible to miss them, because they don't
update all the info, however, if there is more I will post
again before noon.
Thursday 5 September 2002
0700 I have had quite a few
emails in the 48 hours and I've not been able to reply to
them because I'm snowed under with my court case which is in
it's final preparation, so it has been backwards and
forwards to the lawyers. I hope this will be over and done
with soon. The case is on 7 October 2002 and as it is coming
to a head everything seem to be taking a back seat, which is
very annoying considering the vulgarity of the case. I will
answer them all today hopefully.
It was nice to see a couple of
winners yesterday for the system, but certainly no lap of
honours just yet, I would just like to see some later
profit, because when the period ends I would like to be able
to get some satisfaction about the profit made as a whole,
because in reality 50 points is fantastic, but I would not
be able to do that honourably, while there are still the odd
few that have struggled in the past 2 months. I have to hand
it though to the people who have stuck with it, they in my
opinion are the true disciplinarians who deserved to succeed
in this game. Too many bottle it before giving a system
chance to work. Can you imagine if the system had had a
complete reversal and we did at the start how we are doing
now, and then it started to blossom, it would be hailed as
the system of the century and that is why it is important to
judge it as a whole if possible, and accept the ups and
downs graciously. I appreciate it's hard though. I have been
watch the 20 point bank guy going up and down and I still
very relived I stopped him doing that form of staking. I
think in the end he would have possibly have made more money
that any of us, but he would have had a nervous
breakdown in the process that I am sure, because in our
worst losing run he would have wiped out £14,000 in 2
weeks. You have to stay healthy when backing horses and that
is why the staking is so important I will be talking
about the experiment to let people in half way at the end
but whilst it has not worked that well from our point of
view, I don't regret it, we did it to try and get some cash
to maintain and upgrade our website and if the experiment
fails and we have to return all the subscriptions we accept
that of course. It is not our policy to make any cash from
people who don't make enough profit to cover the
fees.....but to quote a phrase...but we don't want to do
thaaaaaaaaat...wouldn't it be lovely to have anice relaxing
run in. Anyway we are not going to do it today because they
are NO system bet today.
Can I find anything for
us...maybe....the big handicap at Redcar 3.30 is tempting
for us on the firm ground. Currency would have been a strong
choice if Fitzsimmons and been on, but he has chosen
Parkside Pursuit. I do feel we could see are repeat of the
Ayr running when these two hit top form and annihilated the
field. Not as big a field of course but that day the prices
were shorter and this field has given us an opportunity to
win around £250 with very little risk as we have 12-1 about
both. Most of this big field has no chance and I will be
surprised if the horses at the bottom of the handicap
feature. Ours have good draws and have good chances with PP
effectively only 4 worse off than his best ever performance
in a sprint. If anyone is thinking of backing Desraya I
wouldn't put you off but the price is unattractive.
That's it for now and it's back to
the law books.
Wednesday 4 September 2002
0700 Yesterday we had just the
system bet that finished...yes you guessed it.. second, to a
Butler special, no recent form and bolts up at a double
figure price. He did exactly the opposite with Compton
Commander yesterday....enough said!!
Well we have it today, quite
confident, and last night managed 13-1 about Pension Fund
4.55 York. I think this is a good thing again and I feel the
price has compensated for the restrictive draw 13. Pension
Fund was favourite for a B handicap off 72 a couple of
months ago and is now back at York in a pathetic E class
handicap off 65 when only one or two could be fancied in my
opinion. One of them is in fact Colway Ritz who possesses a
good turn of foot but cannot seem to take advantage of many
lean marks he has had this season. I won't be unhappy
if either wins today but we have done Pension Fund to win £400
so I am justifiably confident, which I haven't been for some
time, but I hope with all these 13's around, I hope that's
not where he finishes.
Three system bets today.
Tuesday 3 September 2002
1100 As I write this I'm not sure
whether I can access the website as my PC is playing up big
time. Fortunately there is nothing of interest today apart
from one system bet.
Monday 2 September 2002
1100 Well we are into our last month
of system bets and I wonder how many are still following
thanks to a miserable period over the past couple of months.
It's only just over 2 points to level stakes for for
goodness sakes...stop complaining that's bugger all and the
5 month period is still up over 50 points we have just been
spoilt thats all.
Very little today wanted to back
Soltaat at Folkstone but I cannot get a price it is
rediculously short and now worth taking on. When this
happens it makes me delve deeper and I feel that Thundergod
3.40 Folkstone at 14-1 on Befair looks a live danger. I have
also had a speculative wager on Da Wolf 3.20 Hamilton.
Hasn't really the credentials but the time of the year is
coming up when things start to change and I have been told
this horse is not at Hamilton to keep Loyal Tycoon company.
I don't normally take notice of info but I had small wager
at 25-1 last night.... and I mean small, so don't read too
much into it.
Some one did ask me if I followed
stable info and I said no so please don't shout at me here,
but if someone gives me nod and it is a big price I work on
the basis that they might get it right 1 in 20 to break
even, anything else is a bonus and I think over the
years I am possibly on profit, but to take a short price
about stable info..no chance..quickest way to the poorhouse.
Real info??? nobody finds out about
System bets do interest me today..if
we don't get some success with these today I will be kicking
my cats. Surely these are not going to dump us....but we
soldier on.
1800 I am never one to beat about
the bush or hide under a bush for that matter. I have
conditioned myself to losing in short doses, and I haven't a
problem with the losses of late with the system personally,
but I will admit to feeling bad at the moment because others
are being affected although I'm pleased that the emails that
have come have been encouraging rather that obscene and I
appreciate that. I want to protect our record of
nobody ever losing with us and also protect the nice bank we
have that looks like being returned if we don't get our
finger. That has never happened before. Trouble is with a
system you have to stick with it. If your own betting starts
to go pear shaped you can take time out and have a
rest...I've done that many times, rather than chase losses
like most people tend to do, but even if it means us
trashing all our profit we will do it with the system
because that one of the main ingredients in a system...you
cannot fight sods law. However, if anyone does want to
protect the profit or in some cases stop the rot I do
understand, but we carry on.
