This is just a few lines to let everyone know how things are going. I spend most of my time relaying the bets to shareholders so there is no real need for me to update things here as most know what is going on. I do find it far quicker and easier to use the telephone line to update on what is going on, and I will be looking to maybe do this when the flat season comes. I need to be looking at ways to reduce my workload and maybe make things a bit more worthwhile as costs are rising all of the time and for the past couple of months the site is running at a serious admin loss because we do not take fees into consideration until we are confident we have made profit for subscribers, and I am determined to not commence going into the pot to recover the costs or dispense with the pay back fees. Our policy is that if we don't make money it is unfair to expect people to pay and it has worked great for us so far and forces us to strive for excellence.

Overall, things didn't help having a terrible October by normal standards, and whilst we have recovered in November to show sound results it has been unlucky and hard. The Novice has been brilliant this month, his assessments of the races has produced good profit and  I feel we deserved better and yesterday gave a pretty good example of the month as a whole. The Sportsman, in his own admission had a terrible October, and whilst the Novice is a full time pro, the Sportsman isn't, and a change in work patterns meant his study was badly restricted resulting in fewer bets, which is generally not the best policy. I stress we make no excuses but it is certainly nice to see the losses curtailed in November and I still feel that long term we will be ok and that is how we always intend to be judged.

I am still painstakingly judging the system for backing and laying, but it is tough going, I would maybe go for it if it was my own money but as yet I cannot bring myself to risk SB money, I am a hard task master and when I know I can make money near certain profit on the flat it is sometimes silly to throw it away on a test that could end up putting unnecessary pressure on the funds. I hope you all understand cos I know a few of you having been emailing me wanting some action.

We have been going for a considerable time now and are solidly proven over time. The long term plan will  have me on the flat, the flat system, the Novice over jumps, the sportsman, and hopefully an in house system man, a laying man and an all weather expert. My view is then we will have the best service around by a mile and you all will be part of it, and anyone who joins who does not make money in the course of a years betting will have ALL fees refunded. I have always had the opinion that you need to specialise to make money, it impossible to make decent money all year round as an individual. We will attempt to recruit the guys that can do it. We are half way there but as you know we don't rush things.

20 October 2002

1000 This is just quick update to let everyone know how things are progressing with the Novice and the Sportsman. 

Well we started very slowly and I would say that some of you are finding the whole thing quite boring. I'm sorry to say but that is often how it is and we are not going to invent bets just to create interest, our aim is to win long term, you have two decent banks to do that and I did state on Saturday that things were about to change and they did. Not fantastic but I felt Saturdays information was superb and we were very unfortunate not to win far more than we did.

I know a few are having difficulty with the Sports Information but we don't play at this, we have accounts with numerous bookmakers to help us get the bets on at the best price. It is a pain at times but that is what needs to be done to make money, the Sportsman does it and so do we, so I don't mean to sound unsympathetic when I say that a few lack a little bit of discipline on this front.

I would expect the business to start to increase rapidly over the next few weeks as the Flat finishes and the big guns start bring their novices out so all we ask is be patience and you should be rewarded. For those of you who are having trouble with email delays, we will be getting a cheap phone line very soon.

1 October 2002

Just a bit of quick admin to let you know a bit about  the season.

The Flat Season has now ended and we have made a total of £5,070 profit on the flat for shareholders and the share price is at a healthy 5.94

The System Bets which ran from May to September produced a total of 54 points profit during our backing period. Some of the period was poor and didn't match last year profit therefore we have decided to refund all subscriptions to the people who hardly made profit. I was pleased with the feedback and I thank you for you kind words and I will email everyone personally who has sent comments. All 2002 bets are on the site.

Only 30% of people took a refund which has been done, if you have not received a refund to your bank in 7days, let us know straight away. The other 70% preferred to either take on the Novice bets for the Winter or take a massive deduction on next years system bet fees. If anyone is unhappy with anything we have done during the season so far please don't hesitate to inform us. If you haven't made up you mind what to do, don't worry take as long as you wish, just let us know in your own time.

viding us with information. The Novice information will close to new subscribers in one week - 20 October 2002. If you want in go to the home page there are 6 places left for the Novice and 20 for the Sportsman.

We are using a 60pt bank for "The Novice" and a 40pt bank for "The Sportsman, results page is set up.

30 September 2002

Just to round things off for yesterday I did back Scotts View at 6-1 and main race was a non runner. Henry Hall didn't feature and maybe I was a little niave not looking closer at former noted horse Peruvian Chief, but that horse has had many chances.

I have now finished backing totally for SB for the Flat season we dabbled through September and made around £250 profit which I was pleased with and with that added to the total bank it makes a profit of just over £5,000 for the season. This includes the profit for the system bets which has also been added to the bank. The share price is now at a very healthy 5.94 and I was pleased that even before the system money was added the shareprice was at an all time high for the season of 5.56. So you all might like to get to your calculators and see the profit on your original investment. For the original starters it is on a massive 163% and for those who started in year 2 i.e April 2001 the profit on invetestment is 82%. This season so far it is just under 20%. We are well on target to reach 6.10 before 1 April 2003 but overall it's been very tough.

The next paragraph is an apology to the Non shareholders who joined us in July for the system bets. Whilst we have made minimal profit. I feel we have let you all down. I was confident we could make you a tidy sum of money following these bets and it has been really tough going and a few of you didn't last the course. Had we made more profit we would have benefited considerably around now due to the extra cash incentive we put on the subscriptions. I do not feel we have done enough to deserve taking money from you, therefore, if there is any subscriber who has honestly followed our information and lost money please let us know and you will be refunded NO QUESTIONS ASKED. If you would rather receive a £75 reduction on NEXT SEASONS system bets instead please inform us soonest. The system bets ended up making us a level stake profit of 54 points and that by anyone's standards is good. I do not feel we have had a decent rub of the green and we naturally look forward to bettering next year. Also next year we intend to promote well before and close 1 May 2003. That way we will all be in it together.

The same offer applies to next year also where all fees are refundable if a clients feels they have not had value for money.

Thank you for all you comments the board will not be updated on a daily basis but I will let everyone know what is going on still of course. If anyone does want any help we are always around.

So it's over to the Novice and the Sportsman from 1 October 2002, and later we may bring our laying system back in.

Sunday 29  September 2002

0200 We flattered to deceive didn't we. Our big priced selection ran ok for a while and things looked promising, until the horse had to go faster and instead lost the bottle and I think finished just about last. The price was too short on Rose of Spring and never looked backable. Thankfully, it didn't dominate.

Last couple of days no system bets and I do want to play but I feel I'm going through the motions. Henry Hall 3.10 is coming down to Ascot and seems very well in if he repeats the run behind Absent Friends last time out. Perfect Storm 3.45 is taken to get revenge on Oakley Rambo, and Lady Zonda franked the form at Haydock today. Price seems fair.

Finally may do Scotts View but Charley Bates will have some of our money at a big price. Had a wasted trip to Longchamp in a weak Group 3 but did enough to feature today if Scott's View has an off day.

No systems bets and sorry it's short but more pressing things..like bed!!

Saturday 28  September 2002

1000  I must say straight away that "The Novice" will probably be having his first chase bet of the season, and get ready, because it is likely to be a maximum ew bet of 4 points in total. This is why we have a 60 point bank so don't worry.

I also placed a £150 on USA to win the Ryder Cup at 2.10. This has to be well worth the interest although it appear the USA are playing like plonkers at the moment but whats done is done.

Yesterday saw both system bets beaten and Friar Tuck rubbing salt into the wounds, but I felt we deserved Greenslades and it is nice when painstaking form study rewards ones efforts, and I actually backed it again at 9-1 so we were reward with a beautiful 6p rise in the share price which is nice as it is the final few days, as everything for once went to plan.

Today sees firm ground all over the place so I feel favourite backers will win the day so it is difficult to find something in most of the races, but I do feel we must play on 2 bets one at Ascot and the other at Haydock. When a horse gets a new lease of life at this time of the year you should really follow it and this is the case with one horse at Haydock called Rose of Spring 2.20, my only regret is that the price is too short, so I will wait. It is the likely winner but I want a better return for my risk and was abit surprised at the current 3-1 odds...will wait out for later.

The other bet I have for everyone today is a beauty and I really think this will go very close indeed, the only thing that has hacked me off is that the days system bet is in the same race, but I have still backed this to win nearly a grand...flip I hear people say, at this time of the year!! but don't worry the price was 33-1 and the horse is Serieux 3.40 Let me tell you now, win or lose, this horse is most definitely not a 33-1 chance and I would suggest everyone has a dabble at a big price whatever else you fancy. This type of bet is my trademark and what I feel decent form study is all about, although with it being September would have not played seriously in the old days and aren't now. Why is it my type of bet??? It was marked down as a noted horse after winner a B handicap with consummate ease at York off 95 in May. I would normally hope the horse runs again before the end of August to take advantage of a starred horse, but sadly it didn't happen. Ran ok in unsuitable conditions next time when beaten by Common World rated 110 and didn't feature last time in a handicap at Goodwood..a race I feel was merely a warm up for today. This horse was considered Group Class and you would question that maybe but it is entered in a Group 3 in Ireland and it did run it's first race in the Greenham. So the jury is out on that until after today.

I would love this to run well, it has been lightly raced and we have a belter of a price.

Friday 27  September 2002

0500 Up with the lark ready for the Ryder Cup. No interest for SB in the end and if anyone does want to see why, go and have a look at the really good thread on the message board. Bit unfortunate yesterday with Desraya who we backed at 14-1. I think would have won over six furlongs but the winner...good god ran a stinker 24hours previous and not a word spoken for the outsider of 17 runners. Glad we were pipped for second cos that would have hacked me off finishing second to that.

Today we have what looks like a well handicapped horse in it's first handicap. It is Greenslades which some kind person matched at 8.0. Why do I think it is well handicapped? If you go back along way to April this ran in a hot maiden behind Indian Country. Green Line was also in the race and got left behind but has since progressed to a decent mark of 88 which is about right. The handicapper gave Greenslades a handicap mark of 80. I personally would have given him more despite only beating a moderate handicapper at Odds on on Aug 30. The distance was five lengths but could have been double and after a long lay you would not have expected that unless the horse was pretty decent. You would also expect an improvement but the handicapper could appear to be unfair so he gets a lenient 80. The maiden winner Indian Country is now 108. This is not a rule of thumb of course but if you knew that Greenslades had improved in a similar way to Indian country you would be looking at a mark of about 94. Ok I appreciate we don't know that but even a moderate amount of improvement should give him a mark of at least the same as Green Line. My view has always been that if you get a particularly unrated horse it will normally win in it's first few runs in a handicap if shown such good form in maiden company. Had this horse been with a more fashionable trainer I feel it would have a much higher rating. It's a tough race and Johnie Eboneezer is the only horse that I feel will give ours a race as the 50-1 shot Rose of Spring that JE beat at Goodwood beat our system horse Be My Tinker the other day. I was pretty pissed of at that because I felt I should have noticed the drop in class but got side tracked by having a system bet.

There is just the one I want interest in at Haydock and I cannot turn the price down here. I have had a small amount at 16-1 about Unshaken. This has Dean McKeown on board who I hope is booked to do a job, because this horse must be held for a late pounce. I will  risk it will do it today at such a decent price for a terrifically well handicapped horse that has a very good turn of foot when it is on song.

I have also done one in the 5.35 at Redcar. Bit specualative this but Halcyon Magic is such bad value even if you take into account he is 5 pounds well in. Friar Tuck would sicken me if it won having been beaten a head at a big price when we were on. The form hasn't been franked so 5-1 ish wouldn't be good value for me. The one I like is Snow Bunting, fantastic turn of foot and is lowed in class and has only  been raised to a 2 pound higher mark than his best winning mark. You have to look closely and wonder why this is 12-1. Unless I'm way off mark this should feature. Not much outlay and we are looking at just over 1p loss on the share price if we draw a blank. I know I keep harping on here but keep it small. If you want to try and win big place a very small EW treble.

2 systems bets and will I be cheering these on..I really want to finish well on these, so every finger is crossed.

Thursday 26  September 2002

1100 No show yesterday with our info, both Mythical King and Rita's Rock Ape not being able to dominate. I was a little surprised that noone picked up on Castleshane's barging at the first bend. It is so important to get the rail and Mythical King seemed to sulk after that. Rita's Rock Ape should definitely be backed next time. This horse normally gets a flyer and simply got left at the start. These are not excuses just facts, Rita's ran very well considering but I appreciate that doesn't help. The system bets again did ok so don't be too down although a couple did managed 7-2 a place on Betfair with Blue Star which was good judgment for a horse that ended up 6-1 from an early 12-1. Didn't help us though as we lose 2 points at a crucial time for us.

No system bets today and I have played for us on the 4.35 at Ponte. I've taken 2 against the field and I'm pretty sure both will go close. Can I stress the outlay is £30 which is not even half a pence on the share price so please taking this into account cos I'm sick of people telling me we are having a bad September....can I stress we are NOT. If people are overstaking on bets at this time of the year they only have themselves to blame so get some flippin discipline. The 2 I've done are Mungo Park and Desraya, both of which have been losers when turned down at shorter prices. Today is when we back at the right price and hopefully will get a small reward.

IMPORTANT INFO!!!

I need some feed back on this. I am not a golf expert, nor am I a fan of backing odds on on horses or anything for that matter, however, one of my shareholders has placed a 5 grand bet on USA to win the Ryder Cup, he is of the opinion that it is the easiest money he will earn in 3 days this year. The reason why I am posting this is that he has said that I should stop pussy footing around and place half of our money on this one bet, because I will regret it on Sunday night, and by Saturday I will get most of it back through covers.

My first thought was no way, it is just not the thing I would dream of doing, but then I thought, am I doing an injustice to shareholders we could maybe risk a grand, personally I wouldn't, because my policy is to try and take as much of the gambling out of backing, and this bet would clearly be pure gambling in it's worst form, although I have to admit it will make me want to glue myself to the television.

I leave it to you, the bet is a grand on USA to win the Ryder Cup. If I get any severe objections it will be NO BET. In shareholder terms it amounts to around a 20p per share loss if Europe win. No don't think I'm being unpatriotic here, I am only interested in making money. Replies soonest please.

Wednesday 25  September 2002

0100 Got a bit of a bollocking from a few of you today who missed the winner because I didn't put out an email. I was very busy and as there were no system bets I didn't bother. It is no use me saying the info was on the site cos you have become used to getting it daily but if nothing arrives I suggest it is wise to look at the website. Hopefully it won't happen again, but as far as shareholders were concerned they were on and it made up for those recent big priced defeats, because I was convinced we had got done again. I did managed a good price at 7-1 about General Hawk and the share price rose a bit. We didn't back Eton and I just knew Late Arrival would win that last race..he is a sod that trainer he must have known by the way it won.

With regard to today I like the last race at Chester but there is system horse in this so I wouldn't want to go mad because that bet is big enough and has probably an equal chance with what I think will win. I know some will ask so it's Mythical King. If this horse is allowed to dominate it will go very close here. The last time this horse ran at Chester was just over a year ago off 80. It got hammered but the previous June had won well off 78 when I backed it at a double figure price. Although the horse seems well exposed we all know what Chester is like and any signs of 2001 running would have this sewn up well before the end. He must lead though so start worrying if he gets taken on early. Definitely a decent bet at 12-1 which we have taken. 

One I do think has an excellent chance today is Rita's Rock Ape 5.05 but sadly I could only get a very small amount on at the price. This has been given a brilliant opportunity and if she gets a fast start nothing will get near. Came back to form at Donny last time when we had Kangarilla Road which we were unlucky with and that horse is sure to win again very soon. Rita's was barged out of it and finished only a length behind Absent Friends who turned the form book upside down against better rated horses today at Beverley. Just shows how unlucky we were when AF was a system selection as it goes and batters horse like Repertory who is rated 108. Told you September was tough and you just cannot compete with that. 

Tuesday 24  September 2002

0100 Busy day tomorrow so have had a quick look now and the Beverley card looks promising. 2 winners could come out of a decent York race on 8 September, one is General Hawk 3.30 who can be a bit of an odd ball at times but when on song is far better that anything he is facing today. The other is Mehmass 5.00 who didn't last out in that York race after poaching a big lead. If it scrapes the paint today and kicks of that final bend it will takes some catching, but I might have to have a saver on Pierpoint. I'll never live it down if that drops in. Eton looks a certainty today but the price will be short so it is unlikely that we will risk it. 

Nothing else and Newmarket card is poor. No change to share price and not a significant outlay today so go steady yourselves as usual.

No system bets today and goodness who would have thought today's system selections would run so bad...no a lot I can say really.

Monday 23  September 2002

1100 Today is interesting because we have 4 system bets which is unusual for this time of the year, and because the outlay on those four will be £160 I don't feel it is worth getting too involved in the days racing. I have backed Dennis Our Menace 3.35 Kempton at 12-1 though, despite not having brilliant conditions, but had it had everything going for it I would have been looking at half that price so I feel we must dabble a little.

Nothing more to add apart from it may be worth putting the system bets in a small multiple, all should run well.

Sunday 22  September 2002

1200 Nothing today of course but I thought I'd just come on an apologise for missing Oakley Rambo. I consider myself severely bollocked, it was hidden there in the last race and I totally missed it. It just goes to show how much things have changed though since I stopped backing because it emphasises how much awareness is needed. A 13-2 winner is so important the way I back, and with Far Lane so so unlucky at double the starting price it just summed up my day. Sorry about that. System bet was beaten into 5th but ran well so a bit of bummer that race all told. Share price down 1p.

We start on the last full week tommorrow and I will take it easy and not risk more than 5p on the shares in an attempt to increase the pot slightly. That the whole week I mean.

Someone did ask me why I don't carry on to the end of the season. Well it a miracle that I've continued in September, but the answer is it is simply...we would lose money!!

I'm looking forward to The Novice and The Sportsman to entertain us for the next few months and I may bring my laying system back in again.

Saturday 21  September 2002

0800 I felt I let a few down yesterday because 3 people asked me about John O Groats and although I didn't hopefully put them off, I couldn't be confident about a horse I thought come good too early. More frustrating was that it was a fraction off being a system horse. Noted horses do seem to be running well but unfortunately not making us any back end money. Can we do obliged today?? There is only 9 days left before our system cash is transferred to our shareholder bank which will see the share price rise considerably, and I think we can safely say we are not not going to lose this season, but more stats on that will be given at the end.  Last night I felt 14-1 about Caprichio for the Ayr Gold Cup was an excellent price and I think it looks as though it may start favourite which isn't a good sign as favourites have a poor record in this race. However, no complaints and although Halmaherra is weight to lose I still feel this is decent EW  opportunity ..if there is such a thing.

Last night I also backed our friend Far Lane 3.40 Newbury at 12-1. This is such an unlucky horse who I feel must be such a difficult ride, cos that can be the only reason why it has not won. It should have won last time but Hughes gave it too much to do, and if he rides better this is the value bet of the day, but I won't be disappointed if the system horse wins of course because it's all going in the same pot and the system bet will in fact be a bigger bet.

The bets bet of the day in my opinion is away from the two main meetings and we have taken 6-1 about Deeper in Debt 4.30 Warwick. This horses run in an E class last time look better that the company he is facing today. Despite a better class race on paper, most of today's runners are out of sorts and I feel this horse will stay handy throughout and hang on.

Just the one system bet today which is a good price and may be worth backing small at ante post for the Cambridgshire aswell.

Friday 20  September 2002

0800 Well what a bugger, very little went for us yesterday and we ended up losing a little on the share price when it should have risen I feel. I was far too busy to take much interest and I left prices of 7-2 and 7-1 on the exchanges for Soltaat and Kidznpaly, so I got that totally wrong with Soltaat losing at 11-8 and Kidznplay winning at 5-1. I see a few did Kidznplay and I'm sorry for the confusion but some did think 5-1 was ok and as I didn't actually stipulate a price they benefited. We didn't I'm afraid and Friar Tuck was unlucky to lose by a head at 16-1 but it looked like Blue Velvet won with a bit in hand even at that small margin. Incidentally Blue Velvet is running again in the Silver Cup today but we will back against it. The horse that I feel will win that Silver Cup is Gadansk 3.10 Ayr and we have backed it small at 33-1 and 7-1 a place. We backed this when it ran  blinders at Ripon in both it's last 2 races so we must go with it. The latter was when it was placed but won the race on the unfavoured near side at 50-1. The form is rock solid and on this softer ground looks a terrific bet that many seem to have forgotten about. If I did have a worry it would be lasting the 6 furlongs but we will get a good run for our money, that I'm sure. The only other that caught my eye was Hawkley in 5.45 at Nottingham but the price of 5-2 is reduculous. 

Finally, system bet Halcyon Magic won well which gives us a nice 15 point level stake profit for September so far, and with the struggles of July and August that is a welcome change for the people who have hung in. We deserve it I feel. We have doubled the bank again but not quite enough to double stakes as yet. There are NO system bets today. 

Thursday 19  September 2002

0100 Burning the midnight oil with business at the moment and I have a tough day tomorrow so I'm trying to find something to get us some cash as we enter the last two weeks of the season. can't go into details but everything seems a bit short to me. There is one outstanding wager in the shape of Soltaat 4.25 Yamouth but the price is too short. I have left some on the exchanges to see if it gets matched but I doubt it will. It is not my style to back a horse that has not yet proved it can win but at Folkstone last time this horse would most certainly have won very easy had the saddle not slipped as the horse moved up to make a challenge at the furlong pole. The only think that can stop this winning is him up there.

I wanted a couple of others too, mainly Kidznplay who is being primed for a tilt and the horse has perfect conditions but sorry price too short. Colway Ritz has enough ability to defy a big rise in the weights but price is stingy and Le Meridien might be backed if around the 6-1 mark. Seems as though this horse might hug that inner rail and kick off the bend.

The 2 horses we have definitely backed are Friar Tuck 2.35 Ayr at 16-1 and Pierpoint 5.25 Yarmouth at 16-1. I have also put them in an EW double. Both are well handicapped and have contested far better races that this. As usual don't go mad it's September remember, but we only need one of these to drop in and it pays our way very comfortably.

Bad day for the system yesterday as we drew a blank. Today there are 2 bets, one a very big price which on the book has no chance, but shocks are common place this month and it would be nice to get a reward. 

Wednesday 18  September 2002

0100 Nothing I can pick out really that is a decent enough price to be confident about but I have taken a small bet at a very big price about Swnyford Pleasure 3.55 Yarmouth. This horse generally runs in fits and starts, often running well then not seeming to bother for a few runs. It is certainly on a winning mark and the price is very tempting due to a short price favourite which happens to be a system horse. It does seem a bit odd to me that this horse has by passed Beverley which is just down the road from Malton, where he could have carried top weight in a poor handicap. The trainer has had a terrible season so far but this could just be a bit of value today, and nobody trundles down that terrible A17 cum A47 without a damn good reason. As usual don't go mad but we have this at such a good price that the share price will rise nearly 8p if it comes in, so it is definitely worth the risk.

Just a note to remind people to look at the message board on the site at the moment because the Sportsman has started to post. He has with some excellent info about the Asian Handicap with regard to soccer. All a bit double dutch for me but we are following this guy so it is in everyone's interest to have a butchers. Also the Novices is limbering up aswell with excellent FREE information at the moment, so don't miss out on the current opportunities available.

Three system bets today which look promising, but not brilliant prices I'm afraid.

Tuesday 17  September 2002

0800 Lost 1p on the share price as we got the 4.40 totally wrong with the exception of the favourite, how that ended up at 11-4 god knows. Both system bets won which was a relief because you do not want short prices like that beaten. No system bets today and nothing worth "losing" on today so it's looks like I'll be forced to do my VAT instead...great!!!

Monday 16  September 2002

1000 Had an email regarding yesterday's selection and because I didn't have time to posts my my reasons, I will so it today. Please bear in mind my reply was BEFORE the race.

This is not all of it but it is the important bits. 

"One thing that baffles me is, how do you arrive at a horse that deserves your attention i.e one that goes in your notebook?

Looking at todays selection Oakley Rambo. It has only won a class F off a 79 OR (81 today) whereas Pentecost is a B grade winner off 91 (93 today) and Lady Zonda, a D grade winner off 83 (82 today)

The RP prices make OR 11/2, Pent 8/1 and LZ 10/1. The forecast betting obviously sides with your selection, am I missing something here?

Realising that it is your family Sunday, I apologise, and dont expect a reply, again if you wish to use this message for "training" purposed, be my guest

Kind Regards

MB

PS My membership has been worth the money, just to have your daily input

First of all the membership  still is, in all intents and purposes FREE, you money is still here and making steady profit despite a tough few months.

I will be brief, cos I want to send you this before the race is run, cos afterwards it loses credibility, but you will get the gist. I didn't have time to explain the bet but it stems from my note book entries regarding the Newmarket run (after along lay off) behind Pie High who I rated higher than the handicapper, and the 4th in a very hot handicap on 25 May 2002. Total Turtle winning yesterday meant that Oakley Rambo would have to be unlucky not to have won so far. Forget that F class win that means nothing, it was as a 2 year old. Only judge, like for like. Pentecost did excellent winning the hunt cup but it will not win again off that mark, and although it has been running in b handicaps, it has been running badly, so that will be over the top now. Lady Zonda will not win off 82. Stoute horse is too short for a bet off 88 in only his second handicap, although it could win. Courageous Duke couldn't win off it's current mark in a handicap so should struggle here. Astrocharm should not defy a penalty. The dangers for me are Selective and Ace of Hearts, so 7-1 about OR is a good price.

Overall, OR is the only horse in form that is on a winning mark. I appreciate it's hard Mike, but you also must bear in mind that this is a very small bet due to the value. This would NOT have my personal money had I still been backing as it doesn't fill ALL criteria for a serious bet.

Finally, when you judge races, 3 year old handicaps are the hardest because it is difficult to gauge improvement but a horse that has not won a handicap will do so eventually when it is consistently running well of it's current mark and the handicapper doesn't appear to be penalising it. I think it will run close today.

Hope that clears things up a little.

Back to today:

I hope that helped a few to understand how I came about yesterdays selection. The key points are the amount of horse that I felt could not win and I had credible reasons for them not winning. Ok whilst I could pat myself on the back and say you got that bit right, we didn't win money, however, if you do adopt an policy that you end up with a chosen few there is more chance of you appreciating the value of your selection. As I said before, you are clutching at straws a little at this time of the year and anyone would do well to win money, but with a bit of luck you can get it right sometimes, but you must resist backing short. When the system bet was a non runner I couldn't pick between noted horses Connect and John O Groats, and both were too short anyway. We lost out there refusing a bet. Material Witness hurt a little as that horse was the only horse emailed to me as part of my original 10 from May. I felt that horse was over the top, and to cap the day Oakley Rambo was backed and did not run to form. You cannot get despondent though we are purely trying to tick things over and give some interest for shareholders.

I want to carry the thread on from the previous email because it just so happens that Mike asked for info on a race that we have backed in today.

Dear Mick

Have to mail you on the 4.40 at Bath, If I am on the right track, I can not see beyond 3 horses Twice upon a Time, Million Percent, Woodbury

The horse I think is cracking value is MP at 8/1, taking on board what you said about comparing like with like, as a 2yo it has competitively contested A&B grade, although has not won at 3, its appears to be coming to hand with reasonable runs (hampered in last 2 races). So has Mr Burke got a plot going?

Hope I am not taking up your valuable time.

MB

My reply: 

First of all, I don't think Mr Burke has a plot on, it may just be a question of the horse now getting near it's true mark. His horses have performed badly and are coming back to form a little, but it's funny you should pick this race Mike because we have done one but unfortunately it is not one of your three. However, you will be pleased that I rate 2 of yours the dangers. Million Percent is a good choice. Ran excellent last time out and beat horses higher on current ratings. It is obvious that this horse has been too highly tried and you have to worry about taking current odds that it will finally win. If you have 8-1 that's just ok, anything less and it's a struggle I feel. Woodbury is a cursing horse for me we should have had it when it won at a big price so I would be reluctantly to pick that so short.

The horse that I have backed for Sharholders is Zietlos. I managed 14-1 about that last night and that is terrific value. I will explain why. The winning run was a battle I watched the race and the horse overcame trouble in running to stick his head out on the line. He was raised 6 pounds and ran badly at Sandown. This happens a lot, Sandown is not a course to trust form. He then went to Lingfied and finished 5th. That run will have been hidden by most people but if you look close you will see that all the 4 horses in front were far better in ability and the horse was only beaten 4 lengths under a penalty. If this run is repeated today off a rating of 49 it will be very hard for the top horse to give us 2 stone because I think the handicapper has been very fair when reassessing the horse. On those lines the current price of Million Percent is judged as poor.

The one I would be worried about is Shadey Deal, and whilst it has no winning form on fast ground it has run ok on it and the first run for Milton is interesting as Fitzimmons has chosen this one to ride from the three entries.

Overall it is the 14-1 that has made me back Zietlos 4.40 Bath

Finally, when I said like for like, I didn't mean involve 2 year old form. I meant handicap similarities, I would never used 2 year old form in picking a winner from any handicap race. Far more 2 year olds go downhill than uphill.

I will be putting this on site shortly so you haven't cause me extra work:-)

Nearly forgot, we have taken 5-1 about Moyne Pleasure 5.20 Mussleburgh who won so easily under terrible conditions we have to follow again despite a change in the weather. Also 2 system bets that only have to repeat previous runs to win, prices are shorter than I would like but we go with it of course.

Sunday 15  September 2002

1000 Just incase anyone asks we didn't do Wunders Dream singly but did do it treble the odds one winner in a Lucky 15. A few did do that though which was nice but no change to the share price. Just the one piece of information on noted horse Oakley Rambo 3.50 Sandown, which I have to confess I missed when it ran second last time. I was relieved too as it should have won after started it's  effort too late. I feel we should have this today at a good price of 7-1. Nothing more to add due to time restraints but there is one system bet today also which could be ok.

Finally, a reminder that we have almost reached out target for clients for the novice winter season. I will be putting a message out to the public soon so if any NON shareholders  want in just let me know soonest

Saturday 14  September 2002

1000 A complete blank knocked 2p of the share but I was only disappointed with Red Lion really. Dens Joy ran ok and will be persevered with but overall a normal September Friday 13th sort of day. Today looks difficult enough without getting the prices either, we have noted horse Flak Jacket, Far Lane, Millenium Force and Calcutta all running. Wunders Dream is strongly fancies back at 5 furlongs. So what should we do? Leave alone or play in a small multiple. I think I already know that most of you are gluttons for punishment so we go small on a multiple. Treat this for what it is and go steady as usual we are simply preserving what we have accumulated.

No system bets either today so all in all a quiet day and nothing more to add. Oh someone ask me who would win the St Ledgers...well just back Bandari and Vinnie Roe. I know they are short, but they did ask for the winners and not whether they were good bets or not.

Friday 13 September 2002

1000 If you are superstitious you should really leave today alone but I cannot take any notice of that today because there does look at least a couple of decent bets that fit a nice scenario even at this time of the year, so we will do some small business. Just before I start there is a quick mention of yesterday where Deceitful ran excellent before being just touched of as the post came.

First of all we have to play with Red Lion 5.25 Goodwood. This horse was given a soft lead and a poor ride by the second to run out a convincing winner in a decent C class handicap at Epsom. All the mugs got on this at Chester next time when the horse simply did not cope with the tight turns and faded when beaten by a horse he thrashed in the Epsom race.  Many times I have said Chester form is unique and not to compare, and that was a perfect example. That was not his true running of course we knew that, so you must expect it to perform again in this poor race over the beautiful Goodwood course which is bound to suit more. I'm not sure whether the price is ok now but I took a little of the 10-1 that was available last night, but anything over 8-1 looks ok to me.

A better value bet though appears to be earlier in the card where it could be the start of the Den's Joy Autumn Season. (4.15 Goodwood) My only concern about this is the draw which hasn't been kind, but believe me this horse is ready for a touch. Why!! Only a year ago it took a handicap mark of 80 to stop this horse completing a five timer, and it is rare for a horse who has had such success the previous year to plummet so quick. Today's race is an E class handicap and the last time Den's Joy ran in such a poor race it bolted up having lost about 7 lengths at the start. Ok there is no guarantee that it will win today of course but I have just backed this at 25-1 and if anyone has a few quid spare after backed all these short prices, they would do a lot worse that risking some on this horse off a mark of 62. I am sure the trainer will have run this in better class to get ready for a tilt in the ring and she knows when this horse is right, she has proved that before. This is an outstanding bet in my opinion.....if it produces anything near last year's September form it will bolt up.

Another horse that should run well on this terrific card is Dumuran 2.35 but we can't back em all can we?? I have to admit the 8-1 is tempting but have refrained at the moment, but don't let that put you off if you fancy the horse yourself, the horse has put in 2 excellent performances on this track and if it is a going day should go close.

Over at Donny there are some equally good opportunities but before you know it you could end up losing quite a bit, which often happens in September, maybe perhaps we might just have to do a multiple to cut down the costs. The 2.15 race is a must for 3 year olds and I don't really know why but what I do know is that if you follow the older horses in this race you  have an 85% chance of losing based on recent form. So both 3 year olds could be backed and you would win based on that, however, I feel that the Stoute horse could turn tables on York running, which was an odd race, and Kasthari looks a good thing to me at 7-2. Mesmeric ran excellent at Chester after along layoff but this is different and might not feature as well. We haven't backed in this race I must add.

In the big 2 year old race, I appreciate the Thommos of this world thinks the Loder horse is unbeatable, but from a backing point of view surely Salcombe is better backed at a minimum evens a place that the Loder one to win. I think 12-1 is available on that and it could actually win it. No play for us though. 

The best bet at Doncaster for me is in the last at Doncaster. A really competitive affair but Kangerilla Road (4.55) is a handicapper that looks to be on the upgrade. Produced a terrific burst of speed to win in better class last time and a repeat would go very close. Price is ok just at 7-1 and we have played. The only sad thing is that it clashes with a system horse.

Overall, a lot to take in but please I stress don't go mad we are backing at great value today that is why we have to play, a complete blank will knock 2p off the share price that's all, and I think we have great value for money, with Den's Joy hopefully giving us the most pleasure at little risk.

Two system bets at big prices..get those fingers crossed.

Finally, a reminder that we have almost reached out target for clients for the novice winter season. I will be putting a message out to the public soon so if any NON shareholders  want in just let me know soonest

Thursday 12  September 2002

0300 No system bets again today and I'm just finishing off a trail bundle so it's an all night session for me tonight. Very little study and just following up a few notes. Deceitful ran very well behind Attache last Saturday, and a repeat performance will see the horse go close, had the rest well beaten when placed. Managed 9-1 which is ok, and I have just put a small amount on Ragamuffin too at a big price. Both horses run in the 4.55 Donny and won't alter the share price unless one wins.

Can't see anything but if Calcutta wins that Group Race I'll have a fit!!!

Did managed a little at 6's with Council's Opinion yesterday and the share price rose again slightly which is nice considering the no bet days on the system. Seven No Trumps ran well until fading in to 6th..still on the list that one.

Wednesday 11 September 2002

0600 Have to do  Seven No Trumps in the Portland 2.50 Donny. Seems out of sorts but I just know this is going to grab a decent handicap before the season is out and at 25 -1 we must play. Has bags of ability and needs a fast pace which he should get. Although there is debates about the draw. This course more often than not will favour the stands side so I prefer high. In fact it would not surprise me if high numbers filled the first three places. So if you did want to do a combination tricast for a bit of end of season fun, just pick the top 6 in the draw and play small.

The other one I looked close at was Counsel's Opinion. 4.55 Donny. This is a really tough handicapper and the form of the maiden win of the 3 years look suspect and you wouldn't risk money trying to win off mid eighties in only their second race. We have not backed CO yet due to price, but we should get a little on a 6-1 at least. Be strict with price though against the potential improvers.

No system bets today and sorry it's short very busy day.

Tuesday 10 September 2002

0800 Still having a few problems with NTL but hopefully it will be sorted mid morning. Nothing for shareholders today. We got a bit stuffed with the weather so we cannot really complain other than the official going didn't change until half through the afternoon which was poor admin on behalf of the courses. Very pleasurable result for the system yesterday which crawled back everything. Here I am complaining that we haven't had a "normal" big priced selection in an age and bingo in it goes. We are back to double stakes and a very nice 65 points level stake profit. With only just over 2 weeks to go don't be surprised if another biggie drops in at this "shocking" time of the year.

Two system bets today and due to doubling the bank again, if the first one does not win reduce back to single stakes.

Monday 9 September 2002

I CANNOT SEND EMAILS DUE TO A MAJOR SERVICE PROBLEM WITH NTL. I will put system bets on here at 1145 if not restored. Sorry for the inconvenience.

0830 Difficult today with 3 system bets which don't look promising but we still do them. I have been disappointed with the bigger priced selections, they have just not performed. We generally get at least one a month to boost the confers and nothing now since June.

The only thing I have done for shareholders is back Halcyon Magic 4.50 Newcastle. This won a handicap maiden in great style in July was then made favourite at this course and I hope just had an off day because didn't repeat anywhere near the run previous. Obviously a risk but at 11-1 a good one I feel, and sorry it clashes with a system bet, but don't go mad anyway.

Apart from that nothing, yesterday we drew a blank cos everything we did didn't run, so that was a blessing when I looked at the results.

Sunday 8 September 2002

Hi Everyone

0830 Blank day yesterday which was a bit of a blow especially after getting 8-1 about John O Groats. The only thing we ended up doing was being shamed by the Glamour Tipster who selected another winner.

Today is quiet, the only thing I've done is take some 33-1 about Greenaway Bay 3.40 York. Seems such good value off a mark of 56 and could be aimed at an Autumn campaign, so might pop in at a big price in the next few runs, especially if the ground gets a bit softer.

One system bet which we need but it does look promising and should feature.

Saturday 7 September 2002

1000 I am going to come out with all the boring stuff again I'm afraid. I do understand that people would like more action but it's difficult to change the ways of a life time. I have never seriously backed during September for years simply because I would lose, and as myself and Daz are effectively in charge of your savings we don't intend to start now. I has been a hard season if we do reduce the profits over the next month or so I can assure it will not be much. If anyone is following the info treat it for what it's worth.  As you know by now I would always advise backers to avoid the hot pots in a handicap but at this time of the year I would postively ram it home. If you were brave enough to oppose every favourite in a handicap between today and the end of the flat season, I would guarantee you would make money. It is my intention to go for the shocks with SB money so we are going to need some luck of course, but please be careful. 

We backed Parkside Pursuit 2.50 the other day and you knew you fate immediately the horse left the stalls, one of those things that you cannot control, if I didn't have some cash on this and it won today I would be gutted. It does have the best draw and if the horse did return to summer form it would go very close, but you have to bear in mind that as this is the "over the top" time of the year and this might be one that need to be put away. However, the price warrants a small bet so we do it at 25-1. Sorry there is also a system horse in the race too but that's just the way it goes. I feel the best value I have to get a winner for us at good price is Bold raider 3.55 Kempton and I have done it at 8-1 on the exchanges. The problem is here is that although there are dangers it is worth taking on those dangers and risking the extra points you get by taking an early price. I couldn't back this at the current odds that the bookies are offering, so anyone following information on here must appreciate that it is the combination of both the selection and the price that makes me risk our cash, and that is even more relevant in September and October. Had I not been doing SB I am sure that I would just be relaxing somewhere well away from racing, but don't get me wrong I enjoy what I'm doing despite the up's and downs. I actually think there is no one better at getting prices, as good as maybe, but not better, and I did have an interesting Email yesterday evening regarding our friend the Novice on this very point, which I'll show soon. 

One of things I have done often in handicaps is avoid a horse at a short price, watch how it runs, hope it gets beaten, and back it next time. A great example of this was a situation at Chester last year, in my first  serious bet of the year. While today's example, which I will give soon, does not constitute a massive EW bet, because, 1. I don't back anymore, and 2. I would never have a big bet in September, but a few have asked for my learning scenarios and I could not demonstrate the finer points on have a big bet that the follow example from June 2001. Here goes and I'm not bragging honest, don't forget I lose alot!!

Here goes from 9 June 2001

"On to today, I turned down Brevity at Chester, because dispite everyone thinking it was a good price, it was crap in my opinion...no more to be said...but I’m on it today at 8-1 EW that’s the difference, it looks a very safe bet at EW and as some know the money I risk, that’s the reason why I back EW…I know I would win more overall, but one year I lost a lot of money not backing EW and it hurt, so I’m not greedy..as you know it has nothing to do with value…if I was still using my preliminary bank it would be a win bet only..hope you understand that.I am also on Repertory at 6-1 win only, haven't time to explain but this bugger is a very fast horse when it want's to be, and I fancy it strongly without risking too much money because I want more on Brevity.
If it wins I will increase my bet on Brevity Adobe is too short so is Mount Abu, however, the best winner today is Topton at Donny..now that has pissed me off greatly because the field is far too big to risk a massive bet but I have 6-1 which is what I wanted..my boys have hit it I think..so the price might have gone. I was hoping it would run in a field of 12 or 13 for me to get max benefit. I have had just a small win bet on the horse…so you see, there are many factors that constitute a bet for me……it was always very difficult when I ran a service, because I was always frightened to say what was a massive bet and what wasn’t simply because I couldn’t handle clients disappointments deep down..stupid I know but's that's me....it’s hard…I personally didn’t worry too much but it’s hard running a service..but there is no substitute for backing yourself..I even prefer it to being a bookie. So all in all an exciting day for most..but Brevity is the one that will win me big money..the rest, well decide for yourself." 

10 June 2001  

"Well what can I say after yesterday..I woke up this morning a “little” bit richer and had to endure a memory that I’d not experience since last August. In that I mean, the shudder of adrenlin that takes your breath away, my eyes started to see spots and it actually made me feel quite ill, it was a double wammy really because Successful Betting had also benefited although to a much smaller degree..so I was feeling rough but satisfied. Someone mentioned a while back that I was the type of backer that waits for the right opportunity with a certain horse rather than study form, breeding etc. that is true to a certain extent but I wish it was as easy as that. A lot of it is down to luck because you hope that all the conditions fit into place and you get a price as well, and then the horse has to run to the form you have assessed it to win. That is the perfect scenario. With Brevity, it is frustrating when you see a horse win 4 times and you haven’t been on, but it still has to be in the fore front of your mind. There was a lot of garbage written about Brevity, and many tipsters who backed it at Chester and I think there were about 10, have not really grasped the finer points of handicapping, they might think they have, but they haven’t. I still have much to learn at my age, but I have the advantage of that dreaded old man’s word experience. I know through that experience what it takes to win a race on a particular mark compared with it’s last run, and I assess a price on those chances, and if I am not sure or I have not physically seen a horse perform at a particular mark..serious money stays in my pocket. That’s the only way to gauge real improvement. I cannot emphasis that enough, but I still am a firm believer that it is a skill, and that’s why many stay away from handicapping. Or just guess. There is a learning exercise coming up here.

There was much talk about Brevity staying 7 furlongs, but the answer
was not in the previous race at Brighton because it had beaten sod all at odds on in a hack canter, so from a form or assessment point of view the race was invalid. So you really don’t know if it likely to stay 7 furlongs against good handicappers at Chester. The Racing Post was absolutely right to be concerned about Brevity staying 7 furlongs..I most definitely was, especially off a mark a massive 12 lbs more than that the race at Brighton. Someone actually said that because this horse had run over further he was likely to stay 7 furlongs..that was an unbelievably bad piece of advice. You cannot compare a sprinter with middle distance, just because a horse stays 1m4f does not mean that he will stay 7 furlongs flat out, you personally try running round the block twice at medium pace and then run round the bloody block as fast as you can as see how far you stay..it is exactly the same…so when assessing whether you thing a horse will stay in future listen to those words ringing in your head….Brevity was a bad bet at Chester that nearly paid off and had paid off I would not be in the position I am now….a lot better off. They would have been patting them selves on the back for selecting a bad bet which would have cost me a fortune. Think about that closely. I was praying that horse would run a belter and get beaten because that way I then KNOW for definite it can win off 73, something that I wasn’t prepared to risk before at such a stupid price. Brevity ran a remarkable race, in fact I’m not a speed expert but he set the race up for Parker who raced nearly 2 seconds below standard. I am so grateful to Parker and so should all the 10 tipsters who backed Brevity…because they should now be in a great position, to have positive info that this horse will take one hell of lot of beating of the same mark..even if it runs at 7 furlongs…I knew the horse was entered at Epsom over 6 furlongs, I was just praying it would run…Epsom is a very fast course as we know…I had just seen with my own eyes a brilliant Brevity run at a tight track Chester, and the open spaces at Epsom would constitute a serious winning opportunity. Now the thing that shocked me was the early morning price..I just could not understand it…had Brevity won at Chester it would have had a six pound penalty, all the paid for tipsters would have gone for it and it would have probably been 7-4 favourite. Bugger me this was like taking candy from a baby, and the most remarkable end to all this only one of the 10 tipsters who gave it at Chester gave it again at Epsom…I find that staggering but above all worrying for punters who follow paid for tipsters….with apologies to any paid for tipsters who read this…don’t be annoyed, be grateful and learn. The draw at Epsom is never a problem on firm ground and it is a low priority on the round course.

Overall, I have scenarios planned like this regularly but it is rare all the conditions come together to constitute a serious bet…yesterday I was lucky and hopefully you all were too.

I didn’t have a big bet on Topton because I wanted more on Brevity, and NO I didn’t do a double, very rare for me during this period..a double is for a person who doesn’t just prefer one loser he prefers two."

We're back in the present now but I hope you found a few points in there because I didn't have many big bets, generally between 10-15 in a season but everything had to be spot on, and I had it down to a fine art that I could lose on 13 of them and still not lose overall. Getting money on at the price was difficult and it was heavy on the ticker but I did ok, and nothing could confirm my strategy better than the year before when 8 of my first serious bets were beaten, and I felt like topping myself (joking or course... not the losing, the topping)

Anyway, I've waffled enough, and I hope I'm giving you a winner here, obviously not in the Brevity league as I said but will win us a few hundred. I had us a small bet on Connect at Chester simple because I had to oppose the favourite at 6-4 which was John O'Groats and I had noted Connect as future winner and nearly missed the bet. When I watch the race I was pleased to see JOG squeezed an the start you cannot afford that happening at Chester, and whilst the horse ran on it would not have beaten the winner but it still ran right up to his mark, and without the mishaps and problems in running would have gone very much closer. John O' Groats is hold up horse who invariable get trouble in running and that has clearly been demonstrated at Chester, Carlisle and Beverly where favourite backers have done their money, when I feel on at least 2 occasions should have won. I feel haydock has enough room for this not to happen, and at 8-1 we have a good opportunity to capitalise on it's best form. Remember, it's September and I will obviously do a typical amount of tipster hedging, but on form it must go close despite a big field.

Well I hope you have enough to go on but I must mention this email about the novice. I would print it because the guy won't let me use cos it isn't really a learning scenario, But to cut along story short. This guy stated that The Novice was waffling about getting 10-1 about Nayyir for the Sprint Cup. Now one of the key issues about backing as I've said many times, is getting the best price for your selection. If you are picking it you should do that, because you are going to get in first. I do know tipsters who put a price out and give themselves a pat on the back and add a few points on, say the have backed it at larger odds just to boost their encapsulated egos.  Let me just say this, pro backers do not do this, some paid for tipsters do, it makes them look better than they are. When I search around for prices for shareholders I normal get the best in the end...Gudlage excepted..bollocks!! The Novice is the same, if you follow his info you are bound to get an inferia price, but you should make profit to SP but not as much as him. That is the difficulty when you are following a professional who livelihood depends on his success. The chap that doubted the 10-1 available has now received the following Email from Stanley via Successful Betting, so in future if The Novice says he got a price, rest assured he did.

Dear Mr Taylor

With reference to your e-mail, I can confirm the price for NAYIR with

Stanleybet on Wednesday 4 September was 10/1 from 10.00.14 seconds until

16.43.20.

Hope that clears thing up. For what it's worth 10-1 EW is a terrific bet, it's now 4-1. As a win bet I don't agree though because this race hasn't been won by a horse for ages that is not proven at the trip, so the major point to the winner must be it has to have won over 6 furlongs. I don't back in these races and Keyboy knows more than me so I hope he wins it. Surely Three Points is good value at 16-1 though mate :-)

Friday 6 September 2002

0200 Couldn't sleep so I thought I would try to find something for tomorrow that we can dabble with. I looked at a few but could find anything that jumped out apart from Gudlage in the 5.10 at Haydock. This tempts me to have a bigger bet. We did a multiple on 16 August 2001 and I rated this horse as the best bet of the day after it beat Gargolye Girl at Pontefract. Don't even think about ruddy Gargolye Girl, if you knew how close I was to doing that at York, and if it had been a later race I might have done, but we can all say that. A former loser for us as Shareholder bet and one of our famous system seconds. I have a thing about first races on the card always have had...stupid I know but we all have our quirks and the horse winning at 33-1 hurt I can tell you.  We didn't back Gudlage  as a single because there just was so much to choose on the day that we were bound to choose the wrong one and we ended up just playing fun backing to small stakes. The horse ran a blinder to finish 3rd at Beverley after coming off the pace and the horse ran the last mile with a slipping saddle. I did wonder why the horse didn't do as I expected last time. If that slipping saddle info is correct this horse should win doing handsprings against today's opposition. It is simply far superior to them all and with the ground nice and firm I am sure this horse will jump off in the lead and make all unchallenged...how about that for confidence. We have it at 11-4. I don't normally take a price that short the night before but I have it at 6-4 so I have to play. I might just do Stallone at 25-1 very small aswell as that is the only one that I can't rule out. Share price will go down just 1p if this fails to perform, that includes what we did today with Miltons two. Currency ran fine and should win if dropped slightly in class and the firm ground remains.

We have 2 system bets at the moment. Sometimes when I check out the bets on the racing post website it is possible to miss them, because they don't update all the info, however, if there is more I will post again before noon.

Thursday  5 September 2002

0700  I have had quite a few emails in the 48 hours and I've not been able to reply to them because I'm snowed under with my court case which is in it's final preparation, so it has been backwards and forwards to the lawyers. I hope this will be over and done with soon. The case is on 7 October 2002 and as it is coming to a head everything seem to be taking a back seat, which is very annoying considering the vulgarity of the case. I will answer them all today hopefully.

It was nice to see a couple of winners yesterday for the system, but certainly no lap of honours just yet, I would just like to see some later profit, because when the period ends I would like to be able to get some satisfaction about the profit made as a whole, because in reality 50 points is fantastic, but I would not be able to do that honourably, while there are still the odd few that have struggled in the past 2 months. I have to hand it though to the people who have stuck with it, they in my opinion are the true disciplinarians who deserved to succeed in this game. Too many bottle it before giving a system chance to work. Can you imagine if the system had had a complete reversal and we did at the start how we are doing now, and then it started to blossom, it would be hailed as the system of the century and that is why it is important to judge it as a whole if possible, and accept the ups and downs graciously. I appreciate it's hard though. I have been watch the 20 point bank guy going up and down and I still very relived I stopped him doing that form of staking. I think in the end he would have possibly have made more money that any of us, but  he would have had a nervous breakdown in the process that I am sure, because in our worst losing run he would have wiped out £14,000 in 2 weeks. You have to stay healthy when backing horses and that is why the staking is so important  I will be talking about the experiment to let people in half way at the end but whilst it has not worked that well from our point of view, I don't regret it, we did it to try and get some cash to maintain and upgrade our website and if the experiment fails and we have to return all the subscriptions we accept that of course. It is not our policy to make any cash from people who don't make enough profit to cover the fees.....but to quote a phrase...but we don't want to do thaaaaaaaaat...wouldn't it be lovely to have anice relaxing run in. Anyway we are not going to do it today because they are NO system bet today.

Can I find anything for us...maybe....the big handicap at Redcar 3.30 is tempting for us on the firm ground. Currency would have been a strong choice if Fitzsimmons and been on, but he has chosen Parkside Pursuit. I do feel we could see are repeat of the Ayr running when these two hit top form and annihilated the field. Not as big a field of course but that day the prices were shorter and this field has given us an opportunity to win around £250 with very little risk as we have 12-1 about both. Most of this big field has no chance and I will be surprised if the horses at the bottom of the handicap feature. Ours have good draws and have good chances with PP effectively only 4 worse off than his best ever performance in a sprint. If anyone is thinking of backing Desraya I wouldn't put you off but the price is unattractive.

That's it for now and it's back to the law books.

Wednesday 4 September 2002

0700  Yesterday we had just the system bet that finished...yes you guessed it.. second, to a Butler special, no recent form and bolts up at a double figure price. He did exactly the opposite with Compton Commander yesterday....enough said!! 

Well we have it today, quite confident, and last night managed 13-1 about Pension Fund 4.55 York. I think this is a good thing again and I feel the price has compensated for the restrictive draw 13. Pension Fund was favourite for a B handicap off 72 a couple of months ago and is now back at York in a pathetic E class handicap off 65 when only one or two could be fancied in my opinion. One of them is in fact Colway Ritz who possesses a good turn of foot but cannot seem to take advantage of many lean marks he has had this season.  I won't be unhappy if either wins today but we have done Pension Fund to win £400 so I am justifiably confident, which I haven't been for some time, but I hope with all these 13's around, I hope that's not where he finishes.

Three system bets today.

Tuesday 3 September 2002

1100 As I write this I'm not sure whether I can access the website as my PC is playing up big time. Fortunately there is nothing of interest today apart from one system bet.

Monday 2 September 2002

1100 Well we are into our last month of system bets and I wonder how many are still following thanks to a miserable period over the past couple of months. It's only just over 2 points to level stakes for for goodness sakes...stop complaining that's bugger all and the 5 month period is still up over 50 points we have just been spoilt thats all.

Very little today wanted to back Soltaat at Folkstone but I cannot get a price it is rediculously short and now worth taking on. When this happens it makes me delve deeper and I feel that Thundergod 3.40 Folkstone at 14-1 on Befair looks a live danger. I have also had a speculative wager on Da Wolf 3.20 Hamilton. Hasn't really the credentials but the time of the year is coming up when things start to change and I have been told this horse is not at Hamilton to keep Loyal Tycoon company. I don't normally take notice of info but I had small wager at 25-1 last night.... and I mean small, so don't read too much into it.

Some one did ask me if I followed stable info and I said no so please don't shout at me here, but if someone gives me nod and it is a big price I work on the basis that they might get it right 1 in 20 to break even, anything else is a bonus and I think  over the years I am possibly on profit, but to take a short price about stable info..no chance..quickest way to the poorhouse. Real info??? nobody finds out about

System bets do interest me today..if we don't get some success with these today I will be kicking my cats. Surely these are not going to dump us....but we soldier on.

1800 I am never one to beat about the bush or hide under a bush for that matter. I have conditioned myself to losing in short doses, and I haven't a problem with the losses of late with the system personally, but I will admit to feeling bad at the moment because others are being affected although I'm pleased that the emails that have come have been encouraging rather that obscene and I appreciate that.  I want to protect our record of nobody ever losing with us and also protect the nice bank we have that looks like being returned if we don't get our finger. That has never happened before. Trouble is with a system you have to stick with it. If your own betting starts to go pear shaped you can take time out and have a rest...I've done that many times, rather than chase losses like most people tend to do, but even if it means us trashing all our profit we will do it with the system because that one of the main ingredients in a system...you cannot fight sods law. However, if anyone does want to protect the profit or in some cases stop the rot I do understand, but we carry on.

This was my reply:

Now that Fred has made a pretty good assessment of the pricing and has based it on form speed etc, you can then look through the 8 runners and see if a bet is forthcoming. Personally, Class A handicaps are very difficult to assess and I would swerve the race simply because there should be better bets elsewhere. However, lets go through each horse quickly. 9/4 Scotts View. Not a bet at that price in this class and an even worse one at 6-4 which I think it is now. If Fred has assessed this horse at 9-4 and it is 6-4 best..win or lose you just cannot back it because it would be defeating the object of doing prices in the first place. I would price Scott's View more generous. You have to take horses like this on. It is also creeping up the weights and I don't believe the handicapper would make himself look stupid. I would have loved to have had a crystal ball when this ran in a E class handicap at Windsor in June off 70. With the benefit of the lovely word hindsight, it had to be the bet of the year at 7-1. As I said I would oppose Scotts View simply because the uncanny thing is that horses hit a handicap barrier and the big 100 is surely the horses limit, a massive 30 pounds more than just 10 weeks ago, and win or lose anyone who backs this horse at 6-4 needs to pay a visit to the funny farm. It is the first horse I crossed out.

The ones we can obviously cast out are Corsican Sunset who has no form what so ever this season, but would have a squeak on some past form, so that puts a spanner in the works. Dramatic Quest I think is a better hurdler, and Court Shareef is a fairly good handicapper but not under today's condition. Fred has those prices spot on and some of those will be shorter maybe, so we cannot touch them. It is a rule of thumb that bookies give bad value on outsiders, but a lot of people don't realise this because of the large prices anyway. 

Mesmeric is a good horse but and on best form Fred's price is fair, but the horse has been out a year Ed Dunlop is floundering a bit, so there would be too much guess work in expecting that horse to win in this class after such a layoff.

Robe Chinoise is a very poor price, I would have that far bigger..there is no evidence that it will beat Scotts View on Goodwood form, and when judging form you have to assume the horse is going to run on it's merits, nothing you can do if it doesn't but, you have to think like that. Also, the horse is unproven and you are in effect guessing at this distance.

So you are left with 2 Double Honour and Supremacy. I would toss a coin here if someone forced me but seriously I would back Double Honour at the better price. Why?? well it is always important to have a reason to back and mine would be this. Chester is an unusual course in that most seem to think that the draw is the most important thing about Chester, it is of course very important, but this course has a very good record for top weights in certain handicaps. The reason is that because of the tight turns very few horses can run flat out, you watch the horses today they always seem to be lop sided, the top weights are top weights because on all known form they are the best horses in the race, and some of the ones with abilty can gallop at a fast pace without even breaking sweat, they can do it all day. Horses of lesser abilty cannot do that, so when it comes to the business end of the race the horses with lesser abilty are often knackered and the horses that have not been pushed enough, i.e. the better horses, as they would be on a more galloping track, have enough left in the tank to power of that Chester bend. We had a small bet yesterday on Sousmi at 20-1 to do this and I also layed Prescott's not to be placed at 1.26. Ok the bet lost but no moans and I wasn't unhappy with my risk, as Prescott's never handled the track and was lucky to be placed 3rd.

I think Double Honour will set as fast a pace as he can and it is likely that he could set the race up for Supremacy I hope not of course, but Double Honour and Kevin Darley look the winner to me at good odds of 8-1. If it was soft ground the top weights would have a poor chance simply because the conditions would slow the horse down. You need fast ground for a horse to show it's true abilty, some think horses perform better on soft but it just seems that way, because soft ground negates abilty. A good rule of thumb to test this theory is, if you are fit enough, run across a ploughed field on a lovely day in Summer when the ground is hard and it hasn't rained for weeks..pretty easy....wait for it to rain for a few days and do the same...you will be absolutely bloody knackered..horses are no different.

Generally form study like this used to take me about 20 minutes, but in reality I would put a line through in seconds because of the class of the race. So imagine when you have stacks of races and you cannot allow yourself to miss anything..difficult!! damn difficult. 

Good Luck

Today we have to back the system horse Alfazar with shareholder money..this horse was drawn well and didn't get a great start and won pulling a cart..this is a better race but due to that the price has held and I got 10-1 last night. Win only though. Couldn't get much on but enough for this race and the time of the year. It is unbackable now from a value point of view.

Sandown in variety day and I doubt whether many will be laughing, many look obvious, you have been warned!!

Two system bets..fingers crossed.

1800 Alfazar lost the race coming out of the stalls, but whilst we lost on the bet I do hope people just stuck to the system type bet and didn't increase the bet at bad value. Having got 10-1 last and see it finish 4-1 was staggering. We didn't have bet in the race that was analysed but the flippin top weight won the 4.35 with a very similar scenario. Sandown was a typical bookie day for this event with well touted horses going down the drain. Happens every year.

I'm sorry I didn't get this out in time due to work, but Connect was a horse I looked at a future winner a while a back and I did get small bit on for shareholders so the 2p rise will be a bit of a surprise. I suppose that's the advantage of getting me to do the work:-)

System bets still getting battered. I know I may appear to be a bit of a pessimist but this system can do that sometimes, I tell others not to get emotional and I'm flippin doing it myself. It is a case of one step forward and 2 steps backwards, and again August has been hard work, but I still feel we have done ok considering the long losing runs we have had.

Friday 30 August 2002

1030 No time at all today very busy work wise and it's off to the lawyers aswell. 3 system bets which don't look that good.

1500 We have an extra Shareholder bet, but you are going to have to bear with me on this bet because it will raise few eyebrows. I feel I want to have a go at taking on the Prescott horse in the last at Chester. In fact I have layed it NOT to be placed at 1.27. This is not as stupid as it seems on first look. Ok I appreciate it could hack up but we haven't risked a lot of money and Chester is a very unusual track. Horses with abilty generally do ok here, and it is a course which favours top weights. Why you may ask..well you have to consider that horses are top weights for a reason.....on all know form they are the best horses in the race. I'm taking a risk here because of the rapid improvement a 3 year old can make, but on this turning track horses cannot go flat out like they can at wider galloping tracks and generally the horses with more ability will gallop all day at a pace the others horse will struggle at. This means that whilst the horses with lesser ability will more likely be knackered at the business end, they have also not been able to go fast enough throughout the race, because of the tight turns, to enable the stuffing to be knocked out of the horses with more ability, therefore, when the final bend comes horses at the top of the handicap will have enough in the tank to force more speed off the final bend when the jockey asks the horse to go about his business. Obviously this doesn't count on softer conditions because you need fast ground to bring out the best ability in a horse, but it has made me want to take on this favourite on today with a horse that is a massive price. Generally people look at the draw when looking for an advantage at this course, which is correct, but this is an angle that very few seem to take seriously. Remember last year getting a 14-1 winner with Mythical King using the same principal.

I have been mulling this over for the past couple of hours, and that's why I'm late but I have decided to back Sosumi 5.20 Chester and lay Inglis Drever NOT to be placed. The total return on the bet will be around £300 total, having backed at 20-1. Can I stress the bet a very speculative and I would not lay the favourite at it's current price of 1.36 despite the fact that this track may not suit.

Thursday 29 August 2002

1100 You may want to look at one horse at Chester today and we have played small at 8-1. I will probably be saying small bet a lot during the next few weeks as it is very doubtful we will be spending much cash at all and I don't anticipate much change in the share price until the system bet profit is added. The horse that stands out to me is Alfazar. I think by now I have steered many of you on what I look for and we have that today. Five days ago the horse ran in a very hot showcase handicap at Good wood and floundered in a battering race, before that ran Curfew to a neck. Look what Curfew has done since and with a good draw has a chance to burn these off in a vastly lower class. There are dangers of course but most of them are drawn wide an i.e. Celtic Mill and Parting Shot. I would possibly have swerved this bet if PS had been drawn better because that is on my list to win soon. Cannot find anything else really and we should do well with the system bets too, you might want to add the three system bets and do a small multiple for fun. No doubles though. Hope for three winners it will pay nicely. Keep it steady and don't go mad.

1700 System bets ran ok but not well enough for us as we lose 3 points on the bank. Alfazar was a good 8-1 winner which effectively increased the share price 4p as we were very close to 5.45 due to a couple of very small bets during the past few days. Still won't be happy till the system get back up to 60points but maybe I'm being too critical, cos even the glamour tipster selection Love Is Blind won at 3-1.

Wednesday 28 August 2002

0800 No evening update cos there was nothing to say really. System bet won at 11-4 which was ok after Monday's disaster, the other one wasn't expected to do well. Very small stakes on Pop the Cork today which is due a win in the next week or so. Price is about 20-1. Blue Streak should follow up at Brighton but price is poor. Thorton Gold is also running but with Jimmy Quinn who might ride it better than Doe who is is having a bad time of late. No play as yet. Nothing else on a busy day work wise for me and I have to shoot off.

1630 System bet was very easy winner but a disappointing price. Pop the Cork will win soon I'm convince of it. No other business, share price remains the same.

Tuesday 27 August 2002

1100 Nothing today for shareholders and just the 2 system bets, one looks ok the other has no chance...in my opinion. Won't I be chuffed if I'm proved wrong today.

Monday 26 August 2002

1100 I was pleased that we managed a 7-1 winner for the system yesterday for reasons many would not be aware about. I knew what was coming today and had we not got that we could have been looking at a major downfall possibly and a lack of confidence for what is in store. I didn't like the way our winner was cut at the death but I would hope that some took the 10-1 that was available on the exchanges. Today is always a turning point for the system bets, it is the last day where you can expect many meetings and thus many bets aswell, so if it is a bad day it can actually wipe out a good percentage of your profit. I have known guys just forget today altogether and finish but we are going to soldier on till the bitter end on 30 September. I think we got battered last year so it would be nice if we could get our revenge. There are eight which isn't surprising, and I will be very surprised if we don't make profit today. Personally I'll be happy with 2 from the eight as I just want this to tick over nicely now and keep the profit we have. However, it looks like we have to play a very small multiple but I'll explain that later.

We have just the 2 pieces of interest for shareholders and I think both of these will win. I have scanned most of the cards and things don't look that brilliant. We have enough going on with the system so I feel we could be just shelling out for the sake of it. Bank Holiday meetings are notoriously hard and today has often signaled the end of my seasonal backing many many times in the past. Very rare did I ever move into September unless the weather was fantastic and it still seemed like mid summer and September is a month you have to be vary wary about from a betting point of view because many of the horses who have been running since the start of the season may be starting to go "over the top", whilst the softer ground conditions will cause plenty of form book upsets. It is what I call "a give it back to the bookie month". Don't do it. Ok people often say that when the soft ground comes there are horses that revel in and it's a good time to back. Personally I don't believe that horses perform much better in soft ground at all, it just seems that way, as they are probably less inconvenienced by it than other better actioned horses. I am certainly looking forward to a sustained period of soft ground after a period of firmer round at this time of the year because such is the beauty of the exchanges when one would advise stop backing altogether we can now play as bookies and watch these days of diabolical results and reap the benefits. You only have to check the form book over the years to see how many even money and odds on shots have been turned over during the next few weeks and my best advice is to throw the form book out of the window and learn how to lay. 

Anyway the two horses that we will be backing for shareholders are both at Epsom, and both will be done as an EW double, not big but enough to give us a few hundred return. I haven't time to go into detail but the horses are Wait For The Will and Al Mualim, both will need to be placed at least. Please bear in mind although we have backed them already, if one is pulled from the 3.10 race can I suggest you swerve the bet totally if you intend waiting.

Ok that's it, let's hope for a bit of fun and then we can relax for the last month.

1900 An absolutely nightmare of a day, and I'm stunned at how bad we did, I don't thing I can recall such a bad day for Successful Betting ever, just about everything I swerved today won and when Parisien Star got left 10 lengths in the stalls in the last, I thought that just summed the day up. Without doubt our worst day of the season and a good note to end on. I just have a few that I'm waiting for but no more study and a break is the order of the day. System bets will still be sent to all as normal but I think I need the break to catch up on work issues.  Share price down 3p to 5.46 and system bets down to 56 points profit. Very disappointing after doing so well of late.

Sunday 25 August 2002

1100 It doesn't look a bad days racing today but such is my lady's Sunday ban of me being on this machine I cannot go into any great detail. In fact she was cheering on Kissing Time yesterday in the hope I packed in for the season. There's not long left and I'll just quick give you information of one horse today which is good I feel. Whether it will win or not it another thing because we haven't had that vital ingredient for a while and the share price has faultered a bit undeservingly. We have to back Muyassir in the last at Goodwood, disregard the last run when the jockey gave Tarboosh a soft lead and nothing else got in the race, also resulting in Muyassir finishing much nearer last than first. However, we have a horse that is well handicapped that is obvious, it is just a matter of finding a race where he can produce his best. Well it should in this, provided he doesn't get batterred in running which he did on one of the two days this horse ran at Glorious Goodwood. On both days the horse ran extremely well in better class against better horses. In the race won by True Night I think Muyassir should have won, a gap just didn't come and the jockey was pulling double. This course seems to bring the best out in this horse and at a price of 14-1 on favoured fast ground we have to play.

I appreciate that quite of few of these bets have been losers throughout the season, but you mustn't lose faith, as most of the ones that haven't won have run well..Calcutta excluded in that of course. We haven't  won as much as I would have liked but provided you are backing at the right price and there are genuine reasons as to why you are putting you money down, you will normally benefit in time, and when you get the big price winner that people think are flukes..you will know different. Far better doing this, than backing a succession of short prices which although the winning aspect of this type of betting generally gives people confidence, it is a false confidence really because people backing in this manner have no confidence in their own ability to back winners and they take the easy way out, and more often than not they will be disappointed in the end.

In conclusion, I have to say that our bet today has everything, and provided it runs as it did on the two occassions at Goodwood previously, it simply must feature. There are dangers of course, both Niagara and Lycian have excellent chances also but they are not as good value as ours.

There is just the one system bet today.

1800 As soon as it started raining at Goodwood I thought that's blow it our horse has no chance so I have to say to get the meeting call off was a blessing for us. So it was one bet one 7-1 winner and it's not often I can say that. System does test the bottle but it does reward the faithful. We are now peaking at 63points profit and the next bet will be double stakes again for those who have been with us since the start. Someone did ask if the number of seconds is normal. In fact I'll post his email:

Dear Mick

Don't really know why I have bothered doing this, too much time on my hands (i wish), and I know a horse might as well have come last as second when its a system bet as after all, it lost. I do think we have had an amazing run of unfortunate 2nds this season for all sorts of reasons but maybe you can tell me if it is fairly standard.

Anyway as Jim Bowen would have said "Look at what you could have won"...this is the extra winnings (at £40 a go and we would have been well into £80anyway) if all had won:

May £1198, June £2465, July £775, August to date £1980. Total £6418. And that's 36 horses which, by losing, have taken £1440 off what we have won! It really is an amazing system, all that and we are still 57 points up, a truly fantastic return. As I say, pointless but frightening! Let's be thankful for what we have got !!

Many thanks for all your help once more, hope work etc is not going too bad at the moment and hope that little baby is still progressing.

John

I think of the amount of people that started in the beginning I would be surprised if 25% are still going with this system. A couple have certainly packed in because they felt the ROI was not big enough for the amount of cash shelled out. All I can say is I look at things differently. As far as I am concerned you start with a bank and you stick with it till you blow it, no matter what. By doing this it you condition yourself to losing over a long period of time, and when you see in monetary terms what can be achieved by patient backing it will change your outlook. You would be amazed at how often mini banks of mine and SB's have been looking extremely grim then suddenly a purple patch picks things up again. Provided you are backing at the right price and generally this system does that, it doesn't matter how much you shell out on the selections over a period of time, because it is never going to make any difference in the amount you are actually going to lose if you did blow the bank. On the other side of the coin we have done level stake backing and we are now £2,589 better off from our start bank of £2,400 that is the only thing that matters to me, and what I've shell out during the past 5 months is totally irrelavant as far as I am concerned because it is all coming from the same start point, and you should not really count backing money in total with regard to investing because most people don't actually have that amount of cash to invest as an alternative to doing what we are doing. So think about that and it just might change the way you think.

With regard to the seconds, well I have to say this is unusual, I feel we have been very unlucky this season as a whole but I'm still happy of course, I just wish we could have done a bit better for the people who don't know us that well. The period from mid July was tough but it does happen every year at some point. I did get one email from a guy who said that he likes backing them cos you nearly always get a run for your money. I see where he is coming from but I cannot share his view

The baby is progressing fine now John thanks.

Saturday 24 August 2002

0100 Had to do this last night cos I'm away today and someone else is sending this so I hope everything goes ok.  There are three that have tempted me but I can only get a price on the one at the moment. I have a feeling I might have priced the 1.30 up wrong and I'm asking a bit too much for a horse that wins of it's current mark every year, gets put up and then takes a while to go down. The problem I have is that it's last 2 runs were awful, one I'm not too bothered cos it was on heavy ground but the other previous one should not allow me to take a price below about 12-1 today, but I'm really tempted. This horse is always lined up for a touch and when it does win, it wins so easy you just kick yourself for not spotting it coming. Well I've spotted it coming all right but I ain't sure whether it will be today. This is another one that I'm sure will win on it's next few runs so I just might have to risk it. The horse by the way is Unshaken, a horse with terrific burst of speed that can finish a race in the blink of an eye. I have NOT backed this yet but it is likely that I will do, but not massive, to risky for that, I just want to get some ticking over cash from this horse. 

The bet we have done to win us a few hundred is Mungo Park. This horse has not won for sometime and it did have a habit of being a professional loser at one point. Many times it was backed and always seemed to find one to good, and off it went up the handicap making it a perfect handicap stopping horse and a layers dream. Nowadays it has done ok without setting the world alight, but I'm not going to miss it here, cos I'm sure this will be involved in the finish, and it's virtually on it's lowest ever mark. If you remember we had John O'Groats in a multiple when it was beaten by Storyteller. Now I um and arred about Storyteller that day cos I'd dismissed it from a wide draw at Ponte when I would have backed it maybe if it had had a better draw. Well we will see how our luck is really going tomorrow because I do not intend to get caught again, and we have a lovely 12-1 price and I should be able to cover. Mungo Park ran an absolute blinder at Ponte from the impossible draw 16, to finish 4th behind Kissing Time at level weights. Today Kissing time is 3-1 and we have 12-1 and half a stone...what is the best bet??? ask yourself that!! if these horses get a fast pace I'm sure they will both be involved in the finish, as both have good draws. Mungo Park ran over a length better than Kissing Time at Ponte and didn't win. With a 7lb pull Kissing Time should not beat Mungo Park and if anyone backs it at 3-1 to do so they need a shrink..but you just watch how many tipsters will dish this horse out as their best bet. If it wins I give up for the season and take a week off to recover from banging my head against a brick wall. We have a system horse in the same race which is unfortunate cos it has no chance..but we HAVE to do it.

We have a noted horse in Oakley Rambo but I cannot get my price, this one we backed and I underestimated the Sandown Hill and judged it on an excellent run behind Pie High at todays course. It had a layoff and ran a blinder and I was quite confident it would win, but alas it was ridden totally different to the wide open spaces at Newmarket and Annie bloody Oakley would have beaten it that day. I feel I should give it one more go, cos I'm not normally that far wrong, and we have identical conditions today but with a claimer on board. That worries me and is why I cannot get a price at the moment.

I'm actually tempted to do very small multiple for us, with CD Flyer, Sir Desmond and Just Nick, added to what I've already mentioned. The thing is I would have to do trebles I feel instead of 4 timers cos the prices are so big we could get a free bet on the exchanges with just 2 winners. Mind you even two winners would be pretty good going but it is nice to have a go now and again, but please don't go mad, and right the money off. You just need a bet of 20 ew trebles on the six, and if we are fortunate to get the first two come in (I wish) you can make yourself a small fortune laying on the exchanges for the rest of the afternoon.

That's it for the day and if Kissing Time wins that it for me for the season..I will know when to quit. I always used to quit around this time anyway, cos I'll tell you September is one horrendous month for backing horses.

1730 Small bet on Just Nick 7.10 at Windsor. Shame about Mungo Park was able to cover at the price. I think the horse just got going too late but ran as expected on a line through Kissing Time. System bet beaten as expected and we did do Unshaken but not the Hannon horse which I thought at one point was a mistake. Multiple achieved bugger all and we lost around £60 all told, this includes the bet on Just Nick tonight so not a disaster.

Friday 23 August 2002

1130 I don't know what it is about this York meeting, I did say on Tuesday that it always has been a sod of a meeting and yet again it has proved the case. Ok we haven't gone crazy and the share price is ok still, but flip me next year I'll go away for 3 days instead. Not much today despite 4 meetings and we may have interest in the a late race at Newcastle but as yet no prices that match mine so I'll let you know on the website only later around about 6pm if that's ok.

We have the one system bet today which won't make us rich but does look promising. 

1800 I haven't been able to get a price on Desraya it is far too short for such a competitive race. I have managed a small piece of business on Thornton Gold but only because the price is decent and I can cover the bet. It looks a freebee to me, but don't expect anything. I really want to take on this odds favourite of Prescott's in the 7.40 but it looked solid last time when it beat our system horse and without a penalty looks nailed on. 12-1 about Kingsdon looks a better bet, and to me if you are going to back odds on, surely a better bet would be to back Kingsdon and hope the favourite faulters cos you will get just about the same return,  but it's tough choice. I'm trying to find another to do a small EW multiple which could pay decent if 4 place, but again I'm struggling. Will play tonight but only small and share price will not move down due to the size of the bet. 

I think the way the system horses are going we wouldn't get evens on being beaten a short head at the moment, as yet again we get pipped...that's the eleventh 2nd this month....it's just getting silly now eh!!! 

2000 Well the freebee on Thornton Gold went haywire with an abysmal ride by the jockey. had to finish fourth didn't it just to sum up the day. Didn't do anything else, swerved Kingsdon cos I could get my price matched, which could hav ebeen nasty as the favourite was beaten. Share price remains the same only small bet.

Thursday 22 August 2002

1030 Now I'm very excited today because last night I managed to get 16-1 about a horse that should be half those odds. I am not saying I would have backed the horse at 8-1 but I am pretty sure I would have backed it at less than the odds I have, so let me make this very clear. I would suggest that anyone who doesn't normally follow what we do, does so today because had this been 2 years ago and I had I not retired, I would be looking a payday of around 15-20 grand on this..it would have been a big bet. I know someone is bound to say..well if you are so confident why don't you push the boat out now. There is an easy answer...it could lose..and I'm not in the correct frame of mind to get the money back and I would l lose even more money probably. The amount of money I am dealing with on Successful Betting is far less, but I will say that it is one of the most confident handicap bets I have had all season and we are looking at at least a grand return. I have even backed this for a place cover. If this fails to make the frame I will be stunned, if it runs to form it will win I have no doubt about that. Over the years you have seen my rare statements when I'm confident and today is no exception. Ok Ok I know your are saying name the bloody horse..well here goes. Calcutta 3.15 York..this horse has absolutely everything in it's favour today and I have a price of 16-1. I still thing 14's is available on the exchanges and any non bookie who lays this horse really wants their head examining. So why is it such a good bet today. First of all we have good to firm ground over a mile, the best conditions for top handicappers to use their ability, and they will not be affected by weight. Generally the system of handicapping gives all types of horses a chance of winning. The most important fact in handicaps is the allocation of different weights to horse, that bit is easy. Now weight can slow horses down but weight can never make a horse run faster than their own ability allows it to. Just remember that!!

I will give you a little tip here, imagine you have 2 horses running off the same mark, say 75, and one beat the other by 4 lengths over a mile on firm ground. On that day the winner broke the course record. Before the race the handicapper considered that both horses were equal but now they have to be reassessed, so using standard procedures based on correctly run races, our winner has improved 12lbs and is now that much better than the horse he beat into second on that day. That is quite normal, especially in 3 year old races. Six weeks later the same two horses meet at Ascot, the winner is rated 87 and the second remains on 75. What do you think the result will be??? well technically it should be a dead heat, but given the same conditions the record breaking horse will win again, simply because the weight difference that the second has will not make him run any faster. He could run everyday for years and still not equal the other horse's time. The only way the second could ever beat the first horse was if there was some way of slowing the fastest horse down and on firm ground that is difficult. So if you print this little scenario on your brain you will go some way to understanding about handicapping. 

In summary..weight can slow a horse down but it can never make them run any faster that their own ability allows. If a noted horse does a particularly good performance on firm ground we have to be very careful when it encounters soft ground, that is why I have always been reluctant to place large bets on horses on soft ground because soft ground negates ability.

With Calcutta today we have a horse who is at the top of the handicap which means that on all known form it is one of the best horses in the race based on ability. In other words it can run faster than all the horses in the race bare two. What else makes it a good thing. He has won 4 top class handicaps in eight weeks and has only been risen 7lbs and was unlucky in running last time in a Class A listed race beaten in a blanket finish for second by horses rated higher at level weights. The winner Priors Lodge was in fact rated 109 so you could argue Calcutta ran up to a rating of 105.

I don't want to sound arrogant here but this is top class form study, any decent form student who does not back this horse today win or lose, doesn't know enough about form, because it is crying out to be backed, and I just cannot believe the price of 16-1. Now here comes the worries...this horse needs a fast pace in order to produce his known turn of foot, I will be concerned if  noone takes the pace on because this horse has know to fall asleep if it doesn't go fast enough early on. It then gets pushed along and sadly your money goes down the drain. However, on the good side, the horse seems to have such a good least of life and it has only ever performed suspect this season on softer ground. 

This for me is some bet, I just pray that everything goes to plan.

There is one other of interest but I will give that out later as noon is fast approaching.

The are 2 system bets today, if the first wins we double the bet on the second due to the double bank effect.

1230 I was hoping for a free bet in the 5.00 at Folkstone in the Classified race but I cannot get a price. In some tabloids it had Sussex lad at 7-1 and I was getting quite excited again, but alas not to be and the best is 3-1 which for me is not good enough. Half the field can be given no chance here which make SL an attractive bet on Salisbury form. The winner has sluced up again and the second Cubism has annihilated a decent handicap field at York on Tuesday. I'll watch that later but will be surprised if we get on.

1800 First all I didn't inform anyone by email about Sussex Lad cos I we didn't get on for the free bet, another point and it would have been worth a big EW risk and maybe when you don't get on, the resulting second place was what I like. As far as Calcutta goes, I'm so sorry about that, because I know a few will have lost money on that. I just could sense as soon as the horse was up with the pace it was not going to be my day, even the pace horse wanted to get out of the stalls first and was withdrawn and it just got worse after that. I think a Bombay Duck would have run a better race but I still think this is a live future bet when we get a true run race. System bets are flippin incredible, another second and we cannot seem to relax with these at all. Share price down 2p due to a largish bet on Calcutta and system profit down to 58points. Overall, a rare blank day all round.

Wednesday 21 August 2002

1145 A few have often said that it is nice to know how I end up with a selection in a particular race. Whilst time cannot permit me to do this all of the time I do like to think there is reasoning behind everything I do when I back a horse. It might seem odd to some but when I have finished my assessment I honestly feel every single selection is going to win. In reality that isn't the case, but I have to think that or the money simply isn't placed, although I do understand that the size of the bet does have a bearing on my final thoughts. 

So many people put money on a horse and don't expect it to win, my view is what the hell are you putting money down if you don't think it will win. The answer is, to most, it has a chance....well they all have a chance don't they, but the price must reflect the chance of the selection. The less likely it is to win the better price. Now I know this seems straightforward but very few actually think about that when putting money down.

Today's York meeting revolves around the the Tote Ebor, and I know for a fact there will be many trainers and owners cursing. This a normally a bookies race, but this year it is even more so, and there is some really bad value here today. Just look at the situation, anything drawn more than stall 14 should be at least 12-1 so that cuts out many of the fancied horses. Whilst Mediterranean did it last year, that horse was Group Class and it was 16-1 so no complaints there. There are many situations in this race that will stop you guessing. Lets look, first of all, the last 4 winners were Group Class so this is a damn good handicap so you need to be looking at a horse with improvement still in them and have the potential to reach a good class in the future. This naturally makes one focus on the 3 year olds because they are potential the horse with the most expected improvement, and of course this race is renown for 3 year olds running better than older horses. Another key point with this race is that I think in the past 12 years only one horse has won this race carrying over 8st 8lbs so that would not follow my normally policy of handicapping which is to look for the horse with better known ability i.e high in the handicap. Now that Scott's View is out of the race, it has made things a bit worse for me, because that was going to be a short price and I'm sure my selection would have been bigger.

Before I give the selection out, and I'm not hedging here, I must stress that a serious amount of money would never go on a horse that has not proved it can win at the trip, simply because you are guessing and it has not got any proven ability at the trip. It is unproven and everything is subjective so don't put big money down on subjective views.

The horse that fits the profile for me is Dawn Invasion, a tough handicapper that is now on a ever increasing handicap mark, who is drawn ok just and is a lovely 14-1. Amanda Perrett knows what it takes to win this race and whilst it is difficult to say whether the horse is potentially as good as Give the Slip who won this race off 101 in 2000 and was clearly decent already and was also due to go up 8lbs after the race, you never really know.  Had Barathea Blazer been draw a bit lower I would have backed this I feel, but not too short, that horse is future class I'm sure and does look a massive danger to our selection, so if you do fancy that do not let me swerve you. 

Overall, people do think this is a night mare but it isn't as difficult as it seems at first look. As Lloyd Grossman says..the clues are there. We have backed it to win £400 and before our money went on I was confident it would win. Mentally, now we are on, I'm not so sure, but you are allowed to think like that...it's normal.!!

I had an email from a share holder regarding Lady Two K. This is it:

Dear Mick,

Firstly let me say how much I enjoy your daily thoughts, these musings has had a dramatic effect on my gambling. One point you seem to make quite clear is to look for a horse that has run well in a higher grade recently, now being dropped back to a winning grade over the distance and going it has either won or come close in. Bearing these factors in mind, two for today look staggering value at 25/1 if, big if, my thinking is along the right lines Lady Two K in the Ebor and Princess Sofie in the last.I realise you are a busy man, but I would welcome any comments

Kind Regards

Mike 

f there is ever a way to get egg on your face it is reply openly to a question on whether a horse will win. Mind you the odds are on my side cos even if I knew sod all the chances are when some one asks me if a horse will win and I say no, I don't take much pride in being right, anyone can do that. Lady Two K I feel may have done his winning too early, but the key reason why Lady Two K looks looks good value at 25-1 is because at first glance you think, good draw yes, placed all season yes, good Jockey, yes (when he's not falling asleep) Course winner yes, Distance winner yes..flip this is turning into a cracking bet. However, it really has no chance on form, the handicap has battered it and it is now on a mark of 91 and has absolute no chance of beating Cupboard Lover on the Newbury running. If a tipster gave this out at a selection I would immediately know he knows sod all about form, because you judge form on how a horse has run and that it will continually run to form..ok that doesn't always happen but if both Cupboard Lover and Lady Two K run to form...CL will win every time, and that's only one situation. Back it EW by all means Mike, but it shouldn't win, unless a few good horses have a bad day.

With regard to Princess Sofie this is a very hard race, but your reasoning here is very sound. Whilst it looks a duff un at the moment it clearly isn't. The horse appears to have been overrated as a 3 year old on 93 because of her 2 wins as a 2 year old, one at massive odds on which is unfair. This happens a lot, things change from 2 to 3 and you end up with a horse you cannot win with, or you don't want to win with. If you look at who this horse beat as a 2 year when odds of 4-11 you will now see that that horse is now rated 97, Pentecost to save you looking. You could say what is going on?? this must be a cert today off 79..well it could be, and I for one would not be surprised if it won at a big price today..but you cannot back all these types of scenarios all the time cos they are so difficult to find. The fact that you mentioned the horse made me look, or I would not have seen it. Kevin Darley does like the horse, he has said that openly. So in my opinion at 35-1 on the exchanges, you could do a hell of alot worse. Not only that that Tim Easterby has quite a few big priced winners and after they have won you can often figure out why quite easily. A real devil of a trainer!!

Finally we have to do Yorkie. I said you have to have a reason for backing a horse well this is a stupid reason I know. First of all sods law, a twice losing system horse at 6-4, it's bottom weight and will probably sluce up despite being out of the handicap. It will only run if the ground is ok. It's at York and they make Yorkies down the road at Nestle'. Come on humour me it's 12-1!!!

1800 Great race and would you believe it. I am going to get some stick tonight as a couple of local friends back Hugs blind every time it runs. I have to admit I gave it no chance, but pleased with the result from a assessment point of view even though we lost. If you are going to lose it's best to lose graciously. System bets ran fantastic and I felt we deserved better Cumbrian Venture was a double bet so we are still hovering but doing ok I feel. Share price down to 5.51 and points profit back up to 60 points profit on the system bets.

Tuesday 20 August 2002

1030 I been having a bit of fun of late and doing a bit of browsing around, and unintentionally upsetting a few sensitive people. Some of you may have already heard of the Chi Test which I have to say my initial thoughts of anything like this immediately conjures up the word "codswallop". People can take me the wrong way at times but there are 2 main things about me that I do not have problem admitting. One is I get egg on my face alot, and the other is that I do admit when I get things totally wrong. With the Chi Test, it calculates by some strange method the chances of whether your selections are down to chance or down to luck and it works out a percentage based on your "honest" input. I got the information from a post by Steve from Flats Stats, who I do not know personally but I have to admit I am extremely impressed by the way he operates. I put our system bets up to the end of July, took me ages cos you have to note down every SP. It was nice to get a very high reading of 97.48 which ( and don't ask me why ) means that our system is not down to chance and it is likely that it will continue to make us profit for the foreseeable future. So all I can say, is stick with it, because only 2.5% is down to luck. So that is probably the reason why a certain service is still using the same bets. It will be interesting what they are going to do for profit after September 30, and will they have more than 2 system bets today. If they don't it is a direct copy of our system. I think it is very sad when things like this happen but despite many email's from you all, I cannot do anything about it, but they are sure to shoot themselves in the foot if they continue. I was a bit harsh on the ROI men in hindsight, they do have fun and some good ROI men do make good profit, so just cos I think it's a load of tosh doesn't necessarily mean it doesn't work, and I must stress that.

With regard to today I'm not going to waffle, very heavy ground at Hamilton and this York meeting as a whole has always been a nightmare for me over the years, and I've never been able to put my finger on it. I remember swinging from the lampshade urging Admirals Well on many years back. We had it at 33-1 for the Ebor, beaten by Hasten To Add. A good friend of mind always recalls that day the sod. I wanted to back Nimello today, very good horse this on his day and has an amazing turn of foot, but has been struggling for some time. If the win last out means he has a new lease of life he should annahilate todays field in todays conditions, whether or not you would want to take 3-1 is another thing. We will not, I have left 4-1 on the exchanges but I doubt if it will be taken. Smallish though, don't go mad if you are following. Nothing at York today but I have a sneaky feeling I could be hacked off. I have heard that No Excuse Needed will perform today, but with only 7 runners it would be silly to take on the top two in the betting. Bit of advice from our friend "the novice" who has won a small fortune on Golan and is by far his favourite horse. He would back it for the Arc rather than today, to anticipate a drop in price. That is good advice which I second and I used that policy myself many times in the past to avoid backing short. The Judmonte has a bit of a reputation for producing shocks, especially when it was run under a different name, but of late the favourite has won the last 3 runnings. In the Great Voltigeur, our interest will revolve around the system horse but it would not surprise me if the outsider Bustan produced a shock result in what is a really good St Ledger Trial. Flip the way I'm talking here might make people think I know what I'm talking about when it comes to Group Races...no way..I'll stick with handicaps, mainly because in Group Races once a horse has shown it's greatness you can never get a price where I would back em...and I'm not skilled enough to pick em out at 20-1 like the novice did with Golan.

On to the system. We have 2 bets which I think should be beaten, but no emotion please, lets hope Bandari has one of his off days.

We are at the time again where we have doubled the bank again. We cannot seem to get past this point though can we?? So to the people that have been in from the start. If the first one wins, you double your stake on the second. 

Finally, had a lovely email from a guy who got 4 up at good prices in our "famous 4 timers for mug punters" by Jim. That pleased me, but in defence of Jim who was critical of our bet. He has had a few second thoughts and openly sent me an email wishing us luck. Nice to see there are a few good uns around.

1800 Well Bandari had a good day sadly but one system horse ran ok, and the other never got a sniff, but does any horse draw 22 at York. No bet in the end for shareholders as we didn't get a price and was rewarded, I'd have been happier if Tony Tie hadn't of won though. Share prices remains at 5.52.

Monday 19 August 2002

1130 Sorry I'm a bit late but maxed out at work at the moment. Fortunately there were not masses of meetings to go through. We do have a bet today and whilst it is shorter than I would like, I feel we must risk a price of 5-2 about Pepperoni. This horse has exceptional speed and was very unfortunate not to turn over a very decent animal last time. Here is what happened when we backed at Chester:

"I will not waffle on too much 'cos I have to get away but SB has had a decent win only bet on Pepperoni in the last. This is outstanding value simply because not one of the horses above stall five ever wins this race, or hardly anyway, so as all but one of the chief rivals are drawn high the selection has only one danger, if it only has one danger we need 2-1 which we have easily..this will lead from start to finish, but will nearly get caught so hold your breath." Chester 5 May 2002

Well it didn't get caught cos it missed the break by about 4 lengths and was just pipped on the line by Dragon Flyer who he opposes today. DF will not beat this horse again and I have been waiting to get our money back on this since that day. We couldn't back it last time against the odds on Mugharreb, when he nearly turned the horse over. This is his day today and if the price had been bigger I would have doubled the bet. I will be gobsmacked if this horse does not go very close indeed and I would expect it to be shorter at the off. Nearly tempted to risk a very large sum and lay before the off but I just feel it might be a waste of time, so we will be satisfied with a £200 return if it wins. If by some fluke it gets bigger I will back this again.

Might go against the favourite in the last with Archrondel, but a system horse is screwing things up and the favourite does look very solid.

That's all for today apart from 3 system bets.

1700 I get a bit frustrated the way things go for us at times but that is when horses run to form and we don't get that little bit of luck that is required. Despite my confidence regarding Pepperoni I can accept getting egg on my face here because Dragon Flyer won, which shows my thinking was ok. What did happen was Pepperoni ran like a pig. Had DF finished at the back also, I'd have clearly got this race wrong. It makes very little to our pocket but I'd like to think that if Pepperoni had run to form we would have been collecting. I will give the horse one more chance, hopefully after today we will get a better price, but today clearly was not the horses true running and there is little one can do about that. the only good thing was that it didn't reach 11-4 cos I would have backed it again, so there is always some positive thoughts you can glean from a situation. Share price down 1p but it was nice to see one of the system horses winning for us at 13-2, the other was 2nd at 8-1. Kissing Time was a non runner in a race that twice former system horse Esatto won at 9-1.

Sunday 18 August 2002

0800 Just thought I'd get this in before going out for the day. Quite good racing, but no intentions of going into detail today. Far Lane deserves to win today but we have been unfortunate not to win with it at better prices than today. Although it should win today it is really bad betting practices to try and get money back when such a short price so I have to swerve unfortunately. The other horse that deserves a change of luck is Judge Davidson, beaten by very short margins twice under todays conditions and is an acceptable price of 7-1 I have taken a small amount. If more is available and I'm around to get it, I will back some more. I'm also a little disappointed that Fitzsimons isn't on Currency and it was my intention to back that today. That jockey has won on the horse 4 times and Savage has won on Flymore 3 times. In fact I think Savage has only ridden 3 winners this season, which isn't a good sign. Maybe there's a weight problem, I don't know but Milton has confused the situation so much I will swerve, so I will be disappointed if Currency wins. It is another case of the scenario just not quite fitting into place.

Could be an opportunity to do a multiple today but I will let you know if I can get some spare time.

There are also 2 system bets today.

1900 It was nice to have a day when everything went right. Swerved Far Lane which was nice and Judge Davidson was a 7-1 winner for us. Although I wasn't able to get as much on as I liked at the price but we did end up with an increase of 3p on the share price. One system bet won very easy and the other was unplaced, all in all a good day.

Saturday 17 August 2002

1000 It is a lovely day and the last thing I intend to do is spend it couped up getting involved in racing so it is a quick review and off. I was up with the larks and did spend an hour or so just on the Ripon handicap. I had to decide whether I could get a free after I heard that a well known tipster firm was giving a bet in this race. I quite like it when I get this information beforehand because bookies cut the price before money is taken on the horse and if you get in first you have an opportunity to cover the bet. Well I think we have, I have placed an £80 win on Parkside Pursuit at 16-1. I know people come out with this impossible race crap, but if this horse is around 10/12-1 not only can I back a couple of others smallish, may be Gadansk and Ragamuffin, I can have a Free bet aswell, so if PP does win don't expect a 16-1 pay out cos it won't be, I'd rather get a no lose situation first. I would have liked a better draw for PP though.

My hate horse Budelli cannot win this surely, mind you I have said that before, this has to be a bookies horse today, strictly on the book it should NOT beat Gandansk or Parkside Pursuit, but this game never ceases to amaze me. I have just has a very small bet at 66-1 on the exchanges with Gadansk and Budelli is 9-1 crazy that.

The others I looked were Connect who is primed for the next few races I'm sure. That is a fair price at the moment but we haven't played. Gahannan deserves to win but is it too much at the price..you decide. Waverley and Far Jag would be a nice EW double but don't go mad. Might play ourselves with the latter.

That's it off I go. One system bet that's all, which should run well but is poorly handicapped.

2000 I hate days like today, noted horse Deceitful wins the races and Gadansk wins the bad draw side at odds of 50-1 and we didn't have any. Although we did back Gadansk small at 66-1 and not EW unfortunately. We didn't lose cos I layed PP to get free bets, but very disappointed, especially with an unlucky second with 11-1 system bet. Personally, I might be wrong but sure that race should have been made void. It is quite draining when things are so close and I gave up personal backing for this reason and the size of stakes really don't make much difference. No other bets today in the end.

Friday 16 August 2002

1000 Sorry I didn't get the evening review out cos my server had a few problems but here it is below, today's info is after it.

Evening Review 15 August 2002

2300 I get many emails good and obviously I get constructive critism too. I received this email AFTER racing and I thought it was interesting enough to post for shareholders.

It was from a gentleman by the name of Jim.

"recently stumbled across your site and viewed your expert opinion.

today you give out a typical mug punters bet 7 selections in 35 ew 4somes.

result as one would expect, disastrous. how can you expect people to take

your opinion seriously with this type of frivolous bet. is this a serious

racing site or just your hobby?

curious.

This was my reply:

Come on mate your are having a laugh surely that was hardly an expert opinion...I'll put your email on the message board, just to show the dross I get at times. If you had have sent this email before the events, I would have given it some credibilty, but people with opinions like yours don't do that, just in case a few drop in, and it makes the critism seem stupid.

That bet was .003% of a £30,000 bank. If you are going to express an opinion at least judge the site as a whole. Despite the results the bet is certainly NOT frivolous, if I'd have done yankees, candians, Heinz's etc..I would agree with you. Those bets waste money and play to bookies percentages. You only need three winners from the seven to set up a no lose situation on the exchanges. My aim is to make money for shareholders and with this type of bet I can lose 96% of the time and still win money long term.

I hate to say this Jim but you do not know what you are talking about, and whilst I would never call you a mug punter, can you find me a bet that LOSES 96% of the time and still wins long term. I doubt it!! Unless you are sure of your ground, rather than mock I would stick around or look back on some of the posts in the history. You might actually learn something that most people charge for. We do it for free.

We don't follow the masses that's why we win long term.

Mick

The reason why I posted this is because although most know me buy now surely you all are not putting decent cash on this type of bet, if you are can I suggest you don't unless you are prepared to stick with it, and maybe get a seperate bank so you can monitor what you are doing. My reply sums things up really, but I will add a bit and a learning scenario. I am purely doing a bet and letting the shareholders know, so they can have some interest on what was a difficult day. I will show why the guy is actually talking bollocks, this is not to defend the bet it is to actually inspire confidence in the bet and show why this bet is hated by bookies. Most people think multiples are for mugs and in many cases they are but lets just look at our analyse our losing bet yesterday. We had £70 bet on 7 horses and 3 were placed, so unfortunately a losing bet. You cannot allow for horses that just run badly, Anoof finished last and I would have layed big odds that happening, nevertheless, what I try to do is get a situation why we can lay a fifth sixth and seventh selection on the place market of the exchanges. Another horse placed would have turn the bet into a potential £18 loss which is bugger all considering the potential this bet has to make profit. and if the four places have been achieve will still races to go, you can lay on the place market and be in a no lose situation.

Now that I have explained it, I don't expect the chap will come on and apologise for saying such rubbish, but the reason for this ramble is to try and get over to shareholders that this backing lark is not all about results, it is about combining those results to benefit long term with little risk, and Mug Punting is exactly what it isn't. I know for a fact that if you opened an account with one of the small bookies and did this bet on a regular basis, your account would be closed, simply because even the most basic of horse selectors would find it difficult to lose long term, and bookies do not make anything from this bet. We have been doing them on and off for 3 years and they are a very positive aspect in our trading, and many don't believe we can lose 90% of the time and still win, until they take time out and work it out for themselves.

Friday 16 August 2002

0900 Quite a few meeting today but nothing really jumps out of the page at you so I that my friends at Easy Odds for informing me of a noted horse that is running today, but all action surrounds Newcastle. I am pretty sure I might have missed this otherwise such is my problems at work. I have backed Prix Star at 16-1 which is a fantastic price, only win though, I cannot get EW at those odds. Lets quickly look closer as to why this is so good. First of all if it is a noted horse this year and last so we know that it has all the attributes I look for in a winning handicapper. The problem we have is when we think it will produce it. This horse is not a decent grade handicapper and this trainer is a real canny sod at times. After winning with the horse earlier in the season he runs it 3 times out of it's depth in above average handicaps when the horse has no chance, thus preserving his new mark. He then, with a bit of luck gets forgotten about and down the mark comes for the poor performances. This horse then comes into the lower grade against horses of lesser ability and bingo, another big priced winner. Let me make it clear that it may not be today, but I will virtually guarantee that this horse will win at a big price before the season is out, and we will be on, subject to price of course. My concern is the claimer, but two things help me here, one is the price I have managed to get for us, and the other is that whilst he has never ridden a winner, he has had 5 places from 7 rides on older horses, so wouldn't it be lovely to get his first winner today.

Pension Fund is another that is down in class. I felt we had the right race for it last time after it had been running badly in better handicaps and I did point out that it was favourite at York for a B class not too long ago. However, I underestimated just how bad the ground was and the horse simply floundered in it. This may work in our favour because although there are more runners than last time most are dross and we have a situation where the price is more attractive in the bigger field. I would expect this to run far better that at Haydock and if he does shown the ability I know this horse has it will trounce these. We have 9-1 not much on but enough.

Nothing else for the moment, there may be interest this evening but it is a bit early at the moment for prices. There are 2 system bets today both unfortunately are fairly short but they need only to repeat their last runs to win. Yes the six million dollar question. Fingers crossed eh!!

1800 Share price down slightly as we have a no show this afternoon. Not particularly disappointed with Prix Star and we should still get a good price for next time with hopefully a better jockey indicating. Personally I would like to see Jamie Spencer on this horse. This evening we intended to play with Shady Deal but unfortunately cannot get a price. Miss Ceylon was also considered and again we are struggling with a price for a 2 year old filly, very dangerous game backing short with the ladies. Both system bets won which was ok but I'm not happy yet, Kingsdon was a better price than I expected and let's hope they start getting their heads in front again. 

Thursday 16 August 2002

1100 We will do the same as yesterday and see how things go. I cannot pick anything simply because there is too much choice and if I did willy nilly single one out when I'm not that confident it will possibly finish last like The Chocolateir yesterday. So no definites for us, but this should keep us busy. Everyone one of these could win and there are execllent reasons for playing without too much confidence due to the trends we are having at the moment.

Anoof stayed on strongly at Ascot last time and this front runner will be difficult to peg back on this track. Typhoon Tilly was beaten by the Sandown hill although Frankie will have been disappointed when he looked sure to win. Surprise Encounter is a terrific horse who appears to be coming into form. Was blocked last time and should beat the horses that beat him last time, therefore has a great chance today. Adobe is proving to be pain but this should present no problems and should as least be a place certainty. Murzim led all the way but the line at Bath and deserves to win over the shorter trip. Takes Two To Tango has only Cranshaw to beat and looks like an improving 2 year old to me. Gudlage, by the time this race comes we should be hoping for a big payout. This looks the best bet of the day to me and purely by the way it beat Gargoyle Girl should be enough to follow up here. The bet for us will be 35 EW 4 timers, prices appear good at the moment 6 places will return around £600.

There are no system bets today.

Finally: Important News. If you are checking out services be very careful that you get a list of results and compare them to our recent result. There are people out there charging for selections that are virtually identical to ours, the only difference is you get them with us at no risk and our fees are 70% LESS. Shareholders obviously will always get them FREE.

Wednesday 15 August 2002

0700 I am away today on business but I have spent a bit of time on these meetings but I have decided not to play singly and I'm just doing a smallish multiple involving 7 horses in 35 EW 4timers. I think we should get at least 5 placed and you would be amazed at how these can mount if the places do drop in.The inportant thing is not alot of cash on the bet about £90 all told. The horses are Viewforth, who ran well from the impossible stall 3 at Hamilton last time and now gets a plum position. Dispol Foxtrot deserves to win after getting trounced by 33-1 school days when a system horse for us. John O'Groats produced a brilliant turn of foot when it mattered agains horses in form and could defy a penalty. The Chocolatier is still on a handy mark and only ever runs well at Salisbury so this one will have been line up here against mediocre opposition. Oakley Rambo made Pie High pull out all the stops,after a long lay off led until the last strides at Newmarket. Ascari is clear top rated on form and just gets in this classified event, won very easy last time here in a similar race. Finally Yorkie needs a stiff contest and should have really won the other day, this surely must be compensation.

So there we have it, good reasons to back all in multiples just for a bit of excitement on a tricky day. If you did ask me to pick the horse with best chance and is value too, I would have to say The Chocolatier...no other horse has done particularly well at this track and I can see this horse having quite an advantage.

There is one system bet today.

Finally: Important News. If you are checking out services be very careful that you get a list of results and compare them to our recent result. There are people out there charging for selections that are virtually identical to ours, the only difference is you get them with us at no risk and our fees are 70% LESS. Shareholders obviously will always get them FREE.

2200 It's becoming a bit like a long playing record at the moment. Cannot complain at how the horses ran but you know things are not going for you when you are beaten 2 short heads and a neck from 3 runs , but we showed a very slight profit with three 2nds one winner and another placed horse and 2 unplaced. I do feel this is a good wager for us because the 6th placed would have returned us £600 and all 7 would have been £1400 and no winners, so I do feel we ought to maybe do a few more of those. Some one did mention we did many last year, but I was a little more switched on with what is going on last year so I have to bear that in mind, but we'll see. System bet was one of the ones beaten a short head. What do we have to do do get these back on track I am so disappointed at how things are going at the moment and I'm sorry things are struggling with these bets.

Tuesday 13 August 2002

1130 Gosh I'm late here but there are no system bets today's..ok own up who's giving a sigh if relief. Lucks got to change on them soon, but all things considered it could be alot worse. Today we see Brighton only and softish ground but I have to play on one at least but please go steady here because although I'm not that confident we have a horse that put in such a good performance in a claimer last time he is back in a handicap on bottom weight and if he reproduces will win. The only trouble is, he needs to reproduce over a mile and that is difficult to do for a front running horse at Brighton. The horse is Eludicate, running off amark of 52. If you were to reassess the weights for this race based on recent form Eludicate should be running off a mark of 61. Now a mark of 61 in today's race would put him up nearer top weight than bottom so whilst you cannot guarantee the horse will perform the same if it does you have a very live chance and you are backed a 10-1 shot when is simply should be very much shorter.

You may just want to do a small EW double here with a horse called Royal Ivy in second race. That horse is a good price and lowered in class and there are 16 runners, it is a more difficult race to fathom but there is quite a bit of dross around and you could say Royal Ivy used to be semi decent at one time and it appears he does run ok at Brighton. I have tried to pick something out for us that will give us a good return for very little outlay, and we may have it here. Just a simple fiver EW double should pay around seven times your stake, and that to me is sensible backing. Both horses are over priced at the moment.

That all folks unless you want to lay Grimsby Town of course.

Finally: Important News. If you are checking out services be very careful that you get a list of results and compare them to our recent result. There are people out there charging for selections that are virtually identical to ours, the only difference is you get them with us at no risk and our fees are 70% LESS. Shareholders obviously will always get them FREE.

2300 Royal Ivy ran a belter from a draw which is normally ok at Brighton, but the stands rail was far faster and from being last with 2 furlongs to go really did pick up, shame the jockey didn't cotton on a bit quicker and it might have won. Elucidate flattered to deceive and was never going to win. We did swerve the EW double 15 runners on both in the end. I just won't play under those circumstances and nobody else should have either if they did intend to follow. Small loss no change to the share price.

Monday 12 August 2002

0800 There is nothing this afternoon but I do have some excellent interest tonight in the 8.15 at Windsor. I cannot give it out yet because I have not been able to get a price but I'm sure I will get one later. I will email everyone with the news around 4pm. There are 2 system bets today which are interesting in that if they win we will be able to relax for the rest of the season. I am still very disappointed we haven't had our "normal" big priced winner for some time on this system so lets just hope it could be today.

1600 When I first saw Pip's Song running it was quoted in some papers at 25-1 this morning, I thought this was a bit odd and I couldn't get anywhere near that so I left 20-1 on the exchanges and some has been taken, not a lot but enough to win us £700 if the horse does well. It is quite unusual for me to back a horse up 2 classes but last time this horse ran off a 9lb lower mark, the performance it put up would have probably won the Hunt Cup such was it's turn of foot. It simply annihilated the opposition even from a bad draw, which he has again tonight. I really don't know what price this horse will be but I do hope that it's last Windsor run wasn't a one off. I think we have a good bet here and if 16 runners remain I will cover the win. The only disappointment is that system horse is in this race too and I think we will beat it.

I did mention the 8.15 but that was to put people off the scent so I would get decent odds, but the 8.15 does have Thornton Gold running after clipping the heals of Rayik, and unseating last time, which was a bit of bummer as Rayik went on to win the race, and Rayik was thrashed by TG last time they met on this course. TG is still remarkable well handicapped and I will be shocked if the horse doesn't feature tonight and 4-1 is a good price as there will be very few who will get into this race I feel.  We have backed it tonight to reasonable stakes. 

2300 Share price up 3p and Thornton Gold win easy, Pips Song was pulled up lame in the final furlong and will be out for months I would think, that was a shame. I'm still not happy with the system bets we are simply having no luck. Quantica beat our system horse yesterday and then gets hampered at the start losing all chance, and any ew backers must have been gutted to see Bon Ami trail in 4th after losing one of the 16 runners. Winning day but not a happy one really.

Sunday 11 August 2002

0900 Nothing today, very hard, very wet and cannot even risk anything as the only thing I thought might give us a return was Fruit Of Glory but the price is too short. There are 3 system bets which I'm hoping will make our day.

2300 We are still hitting the post with the system bets as yet another second transpires when it looked like winning for us. The other 2 bets were non runners, which pleased me greatly cos I thought they had been beaten.

Saturday 10  August 2002

1100 We are going to play but we are not going to spend much so take a close look because despite the soft ground I am confident. One may ask that if I'm confident why not spend more money. The reason for that is that that more often than not horse will run far worse on soft ground because there is so much difference between soft and heavy. Sometimes it is good to have really heavy ground because there are very few horses that can actually handle it. Ok they can handle soft  but many people assume that just because a horse can handle soft it can also handle heavy which is far from true. If you do have a bet today ensure that your horse can act, or at least get a price to compensate for that factor. I wouldn't criticise anyone for backing a horse who has not encountered soft conditions before provided the price is good, because you don't actually know, it could end up being a world beater on soft, but I would criticise people who back when the form clearly shows the horse cannot perform in testing conditions. That may seem obvious but yuo would be surprised at how many do it.  I personally like better prices and lower stakes when having a dabble under todays conditions. One thing I will say is don't get sucked in by Ascot, those may be small fields but I would not touch any with a barge pole it is a rediculously hard card to work out and the handicapping has been made very even for a reason and I just haven't wasted my time. I will say that Moon Emporereis strongly fancied though but we won't touch it unless it is a far better price that at the moment.

I felt we were unlucky to lose with Gadansk the other day when my hate horse Budelli won in the last strides. The thing that annoyed me about the race, other than we we had 14-1 of course, was that this horse hates being in front and Franny took it up a good 2 furlongs out and I felt that was why the horse was beaten. I would hope that today in this big field, he will be able to wait a little longer and produce the horse at the right time, and use the burst of speed I know this horse has got, otherwise it will idle as he did at Ripon. We have a good draw which is a strong reason to back this today in addition to the heavy ground which Gadansk will certainly love. This horse will not take a lot of winning in my opinion and at 9-1 we have excellent value to win over £200 so not a big bet at all. At Haydock the draw is always the final piece of the jigsaw, and a good reason to discard some of the more fancied runners. The state of the going is the key to the effect of the draw here. In sprint races horses drawn high have a considerable advantage when the going is on the soft side. Good advice I could give to anyone is do not back horses drawn low in sprint races at Haydock when the going is soft cos you will probable be skinned by half way. Short Priced favourites in sprints under today's conditions would be obvious lay in my opinion.

Whilst we have done Gadansk at a fair price the main interest surround 2 very lightly raced 3 year olds. This the time of the year when some 3 year olds make rapid improvement and are difficult to assess when grouped together, however, when they are grouped against older horses they are almost impossible to judge when it comes to improvement. Trainers can beat he handicapper on their own gallops by running these 3 year olds against their older horses to assess them accordingly. The older the horses get, the less chance they are likely to improve, generally of course. There is one trainer with a horse running today that is a master of this process. Remember Heretic, well we have backed the horse that beat it from the same stable, Polar Ben. This is a very classy horse and Fanshawe is so careful with his horses that I'm absolutely sure he would not have this out if is wasn't intending to run a big race. There are five 3 year olds running here and and this may sound silly but it would not surprise me if they filled the first four places, so if you want to do a small combination tricast I certainly would not put you off. Polar Ben has been backed at 5-1 and I would like to think that this horse's trouncing of Heretic was not down to a false pace and is every bit as good as the horse he conquered. If it is, this will win doing handsprings.

The second piece of info worries me a little because I managed 6-1 for us and that is too good to be true. Another lightly raced horse from Peter Harris's yard simply has to be backed today. Barathea Blaze has never encountered these conditions this season yet, and it is always nice to hear a trainer say after he has won. "I was very worried about the quick ground today as this horse is far better with some cut." Well he has some cut today certainly,  and if we see a 2 year old type performance, again the 3 year olds will dominate. This horse has already put older horses in their place and could be very useful in time. BB was very unlucky in the Old Newton Cup and in hindsight should have really won that race, and it would be nice to compensate today.

We have backed both PB and BB in an EW double as I cannot see these horses finishing unplaced.

I could rabbit all day I suppose and I'm sure at the end of the day I will look back and say why didn't I back that, it's just that sort of day. Noted horse Far Lane is out today and we were unlucky with that last time, but I'm thinking about that and will wait until the start. I noted this horse in a maiden early in the year, in fact I felt it put up one of the best performances by a horse in a competitive maiden this season. How did I know that it was a competitive maiden you may ask. Well look at the horse it beat by 5 lengths and it could have been more, Ajeel, that horse is rated 85, Far Lane is rated 88.  That is what is so unfair about  handicapping. The handicapper would have based his early rating of Ajeel on that race even though Adjeel was an even money favourite. We now know that Far Lane has been punished for that performance and when Ajeel won off 72 in his first handicap it must have been the handicap certainty of the season. Hope that makes sense to all, because it is a classic reason why people think skullduggery goes on, and whilst I would never put John Dunlop in that category I remember thinking after Ajeel won what a crafty sod he his, and getting an even money shot beaten in a maiden has work out in the trainer's favour and has won again since and poor old Far Lane given an first handicap mark of 83 has won sod all and is still going up the ratings. If you read between the lines you will see clearly another reason why I spit on maidens because not only do you not know how good they are, you don't even know whether they are performing on their merits, and they are poor prices, and running a "normal" horse at peak performance in a maiden can sometimes kill it's chances of winning in future for ever, all for a poxy maiden type prize money. Think about what I've said carefully, it will make you think differently and that is what you need to do to make this game pay.

Enough of the waffle I bet a few are falling asleep so I will move on to the system bet which are becoming a pain again but we have to soldier on. There are 3 today, one will be a big price and the others look ok to me. I will update later good luck and go steady. 

2300 very little to say really because most of our effort were wiped out with the weather. I did feel that Polar Ben was disappointing but I do think it might just have been an off day. So perhaps when things are slightly better with regard to ground etc. we will back Polar Ben again, hopefully at a better price in a equally big handicap. Share price down 1p cos we did lose on an EW double which was frustrating as we had already done the bet. System bet didn't run well but I didn't think it would anyway and we need these to pick up. There looks to be 2 good opportunities tomorrow.

Friday 9  August 2002

1100 I am not 100% today and my head is pounding, it's not all down to the weather, which is horrendous as I look out from my study. Always wary about soft ground as you know so I cannot play much today. Many meetings again but the all weather cuts out some work but I do feel I have value on one horse but I don't think it will be value now. Last night, I was just browsing through and came to the conclusion that Pension Fund is such a serious drop in class we must look closer. In fact, any horse that has been favourite two runs ago in a top class B handicap at York and is now in an E handicap in the very last race at Haydock must be considered. On pure abilty, we are looking at a short priced favourite for this race. I scoured around and couldn't get a price on Betfair but our old Mickey Mouse friends at Luvbet had it at 9-1 so I placed a small bet on to win us £250 and it is now 4-1. In fact I doubt if anything more than 6's is available anywhere. This is a bet I wish I'd put more on in hindsight at 9-1. If this does return to form we have the winner here no doubt, whether or not anyone wants to back it shorter is up to you, but I have got value for the shareholders that I'm sure.

I quite like Forever Times but have not backed it, due to the conditions, but the jury is out so if you do follow can I stress we have not done it yet.

Just the one system bet today.

2050 Pension Fund got bogged down a bit I feel and didn't look to be running well but I still felt we had a good bet at 9-1. I used to love skinning Luvbets big prices the night before and I'd hoped it was going to bring back some memories albeit on a far smaller scale. Backed it for cover a cover pace too because I couldn't see it finishing out of the first 3 so there yer go. A blank day all round although the 20-1 system bet did run very well....not much of a consolation that is though and even Woodbury kick us when we were down.

Went to see the solicitor today who gave me bad advice against what I now called "The Industrial Pyscopath". He was very sympathetic and offered to fight this nutter for free because he stands by what he told me to do. Now that I'm not paying, I just hope he gets a barrister in and scares the crap out of them.

Thursday 8 August 2002

0730 I have to be quick today as I am at a preliminary court hearing today in Hull so I have to set off very shortly. Then I'm rushing off to Manchester to pick up my son from the University so it's a mad day. I did get a quick look at the 3 cards last night and the only think I have done is back one horse small, and that was Archrondel. If you look around this horse is showing at about 8-1 but I managed to get enough on at 15-1 to win £300. had more money been available I would have had a bigger bet, but I've been unable to back it EW simply because I cannot find value for that type of bet. Fantastic value though otherwise, but you must appreciate that I doubt if anyone will get that price and it may have been a mistake and I was just lucky. I would not give this horse a second look at 8-1 but you simply have to take advantage however small, of being able to back a horse that you are sure has an excellent chance to do well at great odds.

Archirodel is up against some decent handicappers here but the horse does run well at Brighton and has proven form on this track which can be awkward for some horses. We have backed this before on the strength of his run at Beverley a few weeks back, and if we are lucky enough to see a repeat of that run, the horse will win today.

Sorry I cannot do more but I must be off.

There are 2 system bets today which should be average prices.

2200 Terrible day personally where I appear to be heading for a very unjustified payout due to disciplining and ex employee for a sexual offence against my female staff. I didn't follow the correct procedure so it looks as though I'm going to be out of pocket by a few thousand so please if I am not on top of the world for a few days I hope you understand.

I haven't been near a racing result until I got home but was staggered to see that Archirodel  was 20-1 at one point, and I so sorry but I could get an EW bet or a place bet on Betfair and I couldn't communicate with Daz so we missed out. To see a non winning three year old that finished 12 of 13 at Bath last time beat us was a bit hard to take, and not a whisper from the stewards. I'm told one of the system bets ran well at 12-1 the other fell in a ditch at the furlong pole. We could have done with that. So down a couple of points. Today's bet not enough to alter share price. 

Wednesday 8 August 2002

1100 It is really difficult to pinpoint a situation where I feel we can make some money with confidence, but I may have done it. There are just so many meetings today!!! I have had my eye on a horse for some time and I am pretty sure we have a value situation. I know this might sound daft but I took 10-1 on this horse last might and thought even that was too good to be true. There were few conditions that required me to get a better price than normal, and I thought I had done really well. I now look this morning and see the horse at 14-1. This just has to be situation where I increase the stake which I have, so we are now looking at a single bet that will return nearly £700 if successful. The horse in question is Pip's Song. I noted this horses performance when our depressing Lively Lady finished last at Windsor on 8 July 2002. In fact it was the only highlight of a terrible race for our selection. Pip's Song produced the best lower handicap performance of the season over 6f and simply flew away from the field after settling the race a full 3 furlongs out. It was my intention to back it when it next ran subject to price of course but after close consideration I could not back it at single figures going up 2 classes in a hot handicap at York, and decided at the last moment to back Flack Jacket at 10-1 which incidentally won the race. Whilst that proved correct but Pip's Song did run well in that 12 grand handicap, and was only beaten 3 lengths. I will explain why I think this is a such a good thing at the price. The horses in that were 3 lengths in front of Pip's Song in that York race included, Flak Jacket, (winner again) Dorchester (winner since) Currency (easy winner since) Forever Times (2nd twice in 2 hot handicaps at Newbury and Ascot) and also consistent performers Pax, Cardinal Venture and noted horse Ragamuffin. That's 7 horses who are all very good handicappers who appear to be in top form. Pip's Song is now back in an E class handicap at Ponte from an inside draw and is 14-1. Well, I cannot understand that, and it is nearly worrying that it is available at that price, however, you can do nothing else but use your judgement and back it. If this horse produces a similar performance to that at Windsor, this race will be over by half way. An outstanding value wager in my opinion.

The only other one I really thought was an option today was Haulage Man at Newcastle, although the price is a little short. We have not backed this as yet, but the run behind easy winner Currency would suggest that this horse is now back in form and ready to win.

There are 6 system bets today which look very promising so we will do 15 four timers as well as the normal level stake backing, but watch your staking size wise, you don't need to fork out a lot to get a decent return here, and with a bit of luck we could get a decent lay situation ready for the last 2 races where the prices are expected to be short. If we are fortunate to do well this afternoon I will email everyone on what to do. Please also bear in mind that it is possible we could double the bank again today so watch your bets closely.

2300 Fine run by Pips Song and did cover the win bet but didn't do it EW and maybe I should have, but no loss on the day because I didn't get Haulage Man matched which was fine. I expected better on the system and we ended up with a 1.5 point loss. Mosr ran ok with the exception of Scott's View, very weird that.

Tuesday 6 August 2002

Message for Barry C. This is the only way I ca get in touch. Mail was returned

Reason: Requested mail action aborted: exceeded storage allocation

0700 I'm up with the larks as I have a busy day at work today so I need to have a good 2 hours on today's racing before decided to play. That is consideably less that what I did before I retired. The meeting at Catterick is a good one for winner finding I feel, some are obvious and short but I have picked out a couple where I feel we will get some return today and I have to admit I'm fairly confident certainly with one. Catterick is a funny course, I remember taking a female there in the early 70's and it was raining bucket loads and we were drenched. I went to put my small wager on and this bookie said what yer doing with im when you could be wi me in South of France.....yer not there now though yer cocky twat I thought, while my lady just giggled lapping up the attention. I like Catterick even if some bookies do tap up your ladies. It is a left handed oval course with a run in of about 3 furlongs. It is a very sharp track and the circuit favours a handy well balanced horse. There is an enormous advantage over six furlongs for a fast starting horse and this is still apparent over 7 furlongs but sometimes horses drawn low over 7 sometimes end up getting involved in trouble in running through not getting out quick. Over five there is an advantage but it is more noticeable when the going is soft. I am of the opinion that you must always back a horse here who has proven form and can handle the track with a jockey who knows the track well and has preferable won here, as well as the horse. This certainly the case today with the main interest, and although I was hoping for a better price we have backed Tancred Arms at 11-2..not alot cos I wasn't prepared to go lower so we will just have to be satisfied. I think this has all of the credentials I have mentioned, you could argue about the jockey but she deserves another go have ridden the horse only once and won on that occassion here at Catterick. There is a simple reason as to the main reason why backed this horse. The draw, here it is a big advantage. Had TA been draw wider you would have needed a far better price to make it worth a bet. I have a tendency to watch horses on this course especially over 6 furlongs cos on many occassions in certain types of races the high numbers run well with no chnces of winning. I have my eye on a Haslam horse called Tuscurora who is being set up I'm sure, whethere or not I'll get it, is another thing but mark that one down in your note book, it will sneak in the All Weather probably when nobody is watching and win at a double figure price.

The next piece of info aint necessarily a decent bet but it looks a possible and had we not been drawn so wide would have had an interest but I have swerved it and put it in a small multiple. This horse has been beaten by 3 prolific winners in 3 runs in July and hasn't appearred to have the right conditions. Same applies today really, but I am convinced this horse will win in the next 2 runs at least he cannot keep getting bad luck with the draw, ground etc. I hope it isn't today, if fact I'm hoping if it does get beaten it will be nicely hidden. Aintnecessarilyso is clearly on a winning mark and I'm sure Milton knows this, it is not a question of will it win but when.

The only other stuff that took my notice was Murzim, I am reluctant to back this because I was kicking myself for missing it last time at Sandown after it got left at the start in a race when favourite at Haydock over 2miles. I really was asleep on that occasion. While we are on the subject of horses getting left Jewel Of India was unlucky not to make it 4 out of four through napping in the stalls and then lost all chance when battered by one of Dunlops horses. I think you can confidently discount that and perhaps this horse could be back in the winner enclosure today. We haven't done it though and the only single is Tancred Arms who will run a big race I'm sure. The others?? we will most like put in a small multiple just so I'm not hacked when all four romp home...I wish!!!

No system bets today but I think we might have a stack tomorrow..6 meetings what a crazy way to run a racing programme.

1800 No luck at all today. Tancred Times didn't run to form..not alot you can do about that. Nothing else to add share price down 1p to 5.51.

Monday 5 August 2002

1100 I am after getting 20-1 about a horse at Windsor tonight so I will have to wait till later before I mention it or I will have no chance so I will update around 7pm tonight on the website only if anyone wants to know. It's a quiet day today due to the ground and the only race that warrants any interest for us is the 3.45 at Ripon where I have a noted horse in Ragamuffin. However, that horse will not be my main interest. The bookies love this sort of race, because they don't even have to encourage mugs to back at short prices, they just do it automatically. Lets just create a typical scenario of the bookmaker punter for this race. They walk in, and look at the paper on the wall and see that Budelli is running again. Mick Channon, good footballer that, and he's winning everything nearly at the moment, this horse has won twice must be a cert, as he writes his slip out. 2-1 aswell good price!! His mate reminds him that Nichols has one in the race, he's cleaning up at the moment, and his mate has done a bit of work in his 2 minutes he has noticed that Atlantic Viking is Nichols only runner at the meeting. Oh damn I'm undecided now, why did you open your mouth. No I have to stick with the horse I looked at for 2 seconds when I first came in the shop...it's Budelli for me. You're mad his mate replies...Nichols only runner..as he becomes obsessed with his brilliant form study.

This happens daily in shops all over the country and bookies can price up horses like these on the current success of horses and trainers without taking any consideration to the true chances of the horses in question. I personally could never back those two horses because the ridiculous prices that they have been priced up at do not reflect the chances of the horse.

The reason why I want to play on the race is not necessarily because I think I have a horse that will win the race, it is because the two main horses the top of the betting are such false prices you are sure to get value in the race by avoiding them. I could get serious egg on my face here but I'm used to that, but if you look for situations like this it will pay in the long run honest. Why am I deserting them?? Atlantic Viking is the first horse I crossed off my list. I can only assume the owner wants a day out and Nichols will take a short trip down the road to accommodate him. You can go back 5 years and look at every race and see with your own eyes that this horse never performs on soft ground let alone win on it. This gives Nichols an opportunity to run it under totally unsuitable conditions, something that this guy does all of the time, and the bookies make it second favourite. If this wins I will absolutely be gobsmacked and will throw my form book into the River Humber. Anyone who backs this horse knows bugger all about form, so have look around at the tipsters you know and you will see that many have chosen it ...sums up the whole game eh!! If you back horse like this you are sure to be a loser long term.

On to Budelli...now this has form on soft so you have to think it has a chance, well course it has, but not a 2-1 chance. This horse was a bottler last year, off the top of my head I think it finished second 8 times before winning on soft off 77. I personally would have given this a bit of a higher mark that 86 because to win 4 races and only go up 10lbs is quite lenient. However, on soft ground this horse will have to be very good to win for a third time on the trot and history would be on my side when I say that this horse should be opposed at the price today. Another reason is I hate the flippin horse cos it cost us over grand beating American Beauty at Ponte.

So what can we have to beat it....well there is two, a noted horse Ragamuffin, and at 12-1 it's a better bet and we may play jointly, but really we will side with Gadansk. Now don't start the argument that this horse has only won over 5..I know that, but we are trying to get some value to beat the main two that is all. We are not risking stacks of cash just a small bet at a good price and the 16-1 I have about Gadansk is very good. Last time out on faster ground this horse was comprehensively beaten by Parside Pursuit and Currency, both horses are in top form, and back on his favoured ground should give a good account at the price.

There are 2 system horses today and it's nice to see we have doubled the bank again.

Evening Update

1820 I don't know how you feel but I think you have to deduce we were a little unlucky today, both systems horse finishing second and Gadansk just failing to hold the final challenge of Budelli. We had Gadansk at 14-1. Budelli is a horse that is really beginning to hack me off, and I'll tell you why at the end of the season, and I did have a sneaky feeling the handicapper had been a little lenient but I did expect it to be beaten of course. This evening I will not harp on too much but we have had a very small wager on Lively Lady. Her last run was unfortunate as she got left in the stalls and before that finished last when we backed it. I am sure this will pick up a prize soon it simply cannot have gone down hill so much, and it is on a silly handicap mark for a horse with such known ability. It would be nice if it showed it tonight.

2100 Unfortunately it didn't, but I was still smarting over being being beaten by the 33-1 outsider in the system...I hate that. Very little change on the share price due to the size of the bets.

Sunday 4 August 2002

1200 Sorry I'm late, had to pop out and fix a my lift this morning. I think eveyone knows by now that I will get bollocked if I spend to much time here on Sundays, but I did managed to sneak a bit last night and I feel we very decent pieces of information today. First of all, I think we have been lucky that King's Crest is running at Chester today after finishing down the field at Doncaster yesterday. This horse is superb at coming off a fast pace and if he does get the race run to suit I think we will see an easy win. I you look back Lost Spirit gave the horse a good lead when they last met, and I felt the claimer fell asleep a little and I don't think that will happen today. Yesterday the withdrawal of Robandela would have killed of the prospect of a fast pace and Kings Crest couldn't cope with the slow pace and sprint finish and appeared to give up. I doubt if Fahey would come over here today if compensation wasn't on the cards. We have backed this at 7-2 which is an excellent price price I feel in this 8 runner event.

I had planned a very decent wager on the 3.25 Chester but the wide draw has killed it, but I will be closely watching this race with a view to getting on a winner from it during the next 2 weeks. It is a very good pointer for future winner finding because you can assess horses that have no chance of winning today but still run well enough to maybe have won with better luck. Those horse don't get noticed by the pundits and when the win at good prices in the near future, it might be a shock to some but not us. It is similar in the way that horses at Beverley lose 5 lengths just through being drawn badly. You have effectively lost the race before the start, and even if horses do get across quick at Chester the chances are they have used up too much energy and get taken close home on many occasions. Some of you might remember Cantina, a couple of years back, everything went to plan on the Friday when we hit the horse hard and on the following Sunday was beaten by the wide draw in the final strides. There doesn't appear to be a fast starter in the field drawn low and this could play into Tony Ties hands who still could be drawn better but the 12 stall actually might suit this horse style of running. 9-1 is a good price and we will possible play but only small.

I really want to take on both the favourites in the 4.35 and although Smokin Beau looks the likely winner, you will be surprised at the horse I have chosen. I looked at this race early in the week and I said to myself if Vita Spericolata gets stall 1 we are in for a £500 payday. This horse's saddle slipped last time so forget that, but I know for a fact that that this horse will have been prepared for a tilt at this race. It is a very very good price and I feel that if it does get a fast start it will scrape the paint and nothing will pass it. If it doesn't get out throw your ticket away. Let's look closely here, you are backing one of the few horses in the race that is thoroughly proven on this track, that is absolutely vital here. Horses do well here and do sod all anywhere else and Chester form is unique. I personally take very little notice of Chester form at other tracks because it never weighs up.

I will just repeat what I have done for shareholders today just incase a few are confused. Kings Crest, Tony Tie and Vita Spericolata have been back in singles (not big) and I have done an EW double on Kings Crest and Smokin Beau. All in all 2 shares will be lost if we get a blank which of course is possible. If you play yourself just go steady.

There are 2 system bets for today.

I might not be able to do an evening update I am going to Manchester this afternoon.

Evening Update

1900 Back earlier than expected and didn't see any racing at all until now. I was very hacked with Tony Tie. Badly run race even from wide. I don't know whether anyone else does this but I use a service that informs me when any of my valuable noted horses are running. There in bright lights was just the one this morning...Deceitful and blow me how many chances has that had, so I swerved in favour of Tony Tie at 9-1 and by the off we have a super price as TT finished at 4-1. Sod's Law wins the races.  I was please with Vita Spericolta that went exactly as scripted and we had 16-1. We didn't have as much on as Tony Tie and Kings Crest but definitely no complaints and the share price is up 6p on the day. I would not had done the EW double knowing about the non runner, that was just unfortunate.

System horse Texas Gold won at a disgusting price. I marked that up at 8-1 but I shouldn't complain really. I was never confident about Mana D'Argent so I wasn't surprised to see that beaten. All in all a good day.

Saturday 3 August 2002

0230 Today is tricky and but we will be having one main bet and 2 speculative ones. The main bet is Pie High in the 2.40 at Newmarket although it is soft ground so go steady. It is a surprisingly decent price for a horse that is the only one that has decent current form on soft. In fact nothing really gets near it. The speculative ones are first of all Jawwala in the 5.25 at Newmarket. I simply have to take on this false favourite. I will be so surprised if the Knavesmire Owen follows up. This horse has no form whatsoever under today's conditions where as Jawwala was overrated by the handicapper and is now down to a mark of 69 which is about right for a good run judging by the maiden win in similar conditions. Payne's horses are also running much better of late. Obviously the price of 25-1 helps to.

The Stewards Cup is most peoples nightmare of a race, but normally it is always good to have ago cos you only need to get the winner once every 15 years to make profit and I've done that just. It is not as inpenetrative as it seems because I always strike out horses below 90 as it is rare for them to win this below that, and it is vital a horse has ability. So when most of the field is killed off you now have a race that is in actual fact very good value. Winners of this race are also previous winners in the current season and also have had a decent break before running in this race. So what have we got it down to... four I feel..Salviati, Bali Royal, Grey Emininece and Seven No Trumps. The first two have run within a week so you could discard Salviati at least but I'm reluctant to discard Bali Royal because it is the only 4 year among the final four  and 4yr olds do normally win this race. Grey Eminence looks outclassed on paper if you didn't count it's last run, but that is 50-1 so we can back that small. Oh sod it, it has to be the horse with class...Seven No Trumps, and we have backed at 30-1. I don't think Mick Kinane would be booked for nothing. If this shows it's class even from a low draw it will win, no trouble.

There are 3 system bets today, I expect short prices, but at least 2 winners should come from them.

1730 You cannot keep Mark Johnston out of the winners enclosure at all at the moment and he did well for us and even defied logic to get up and win with Knavesmire Logic which surprised me. I felt Jawwala ran a blinder at a big price and the 25-1 EW deserved better.  Seven No Trumps appeared to need the race and Bond Boy threw my theories right up in the air, however, the 7-1 I got about Pie High turned out to be a very decent bet indeed and the share price rises 4 points.

System bets did ok at expected prices but Robendela was a non runner, and I would have preferred Thirsk to be abandoned. System bets are showing 56.60 points profit.

Friday 2 August 2002

1100 It appears easy to find winners today, many look obvious, but we will not be caught out. The rains have come on most of the meetings and things will change, so we don't intend to be sucked in and waste money. That doesn't mean we won't have a little go because I have a good price of 12-1 about a horse which I feel will go very close in the William Hill mile. I remember this horse beating a 1-5 shot about a year ago and putting it in the notebook. Toffee Nose had been beaten 3 previous times at odds on and the handicapper still gave him a mark of 91 which I thought at the time was unfair. Amazingly the horse then won a class A listed race at odds of 25-1 and the went over to run in a Group One in Italy. The thing which escaped me last year was Toffee Nose ended up on 91 cos I feel the handicap didn't take the odds on defeat in the right context but I supposed you could say I was wrong, but it was still baffling that Dumaran was rated 80 then lost in a 0-90 off 80 and the handicapper then lowered the horse 3 lbs and Ian Balding said thank you very much as it pulverised the opposition in it's very next race off 77 at 14-1. That is what makes handicapping very difficult at times. I have always rated this horse highly and never had money on it. We nearly backed in June but it was soft ground that ended being quite fast which was annoying and I had similar reservations when finishing down the field at the start of July which was I was happy about. I have had it starred since and was a bit mad that I didn't back it antepost for this. I was concerned about the rock hard ground which wouldn't have been suitable, and whilst I would prefer a little more cut, Dumaran will run a big race I'm sure and if it does happen to reproduce the Epsom running, nothing will get near it.

The best bet this evening appears to be Cyber Santa but I haven't played as yet, but we have done it in a multiple with Dorchester, Chorist and Tarboush. I don't wish to back them in singles as I'm trying for a lay situation in the last at Newmarket.

There are system bets today and I expect them to run ok and the prices should be ok.

Stop Press:

Another piece of good news is that we have the services of "The Novice" for the winter. I have always been a big supporter of this mans Novice Chase information. At the end of his winter season he was asked to help set up a tipster service that didn't really see him perform as well as we know, but very little of it was Novice Chase info. I know from personal experience that to be successful as a pro you are far better staying away from the tipster game. Whilst the novice is a full time pro in many areas of backing, we will be relaying purely his Novice Chase Information where I feel he has no equal, and we will give instructions on how to get the best from this man's ability because at times I have been critical of his methods but he has tremendous bottle when it comes to backing horses, and can give an uneasy roller caster ride, especially with short prices. However, Novice Chase backing is a law to itself the final outcome is always LONG TERM profit, which is exactly what we are looking for. The Novice has now had a full year in the ranks of a pro backer and whilst it has not been easy I would expect him to get better and better with time, and I'm confident shareholders will benefit. I will stress that the information will not be free, but shareholders will not pay a fee to us, we will give him a fee for his work subject to profit he makes for shareholders. I think that is very fair and it means you all get the information at no cost. If non shareholders do want to get involved, we will work out a money back guarantee for the whole of the winter. NON shareholders must let me know in good time if you are interested in his information but I will not let this information sneak out like the systems bets did and I will not do a trial, and it will become a closed soon after the season is under way. I will also give full details as to how the service will operate so you can decide if it is for you beforehand.

2300 Share price down a little as we missed out with Dumaran. I think I may have underestimated the fast ground as the horse did appear to be feeling it coming down the hill. I was a bit surprised Smirk won it though. I felt we were a little unlucky with the multiple, especially Chorist. What the heck Fallon was doing god knows. That horse must be backed next time. System bets did well and gave us a nice start to the month.

Result: Dumaran Unplaced  - Multiple lost.

Thursday 1 August 2002

0930 There are no system bets today which to be honest I'm glad about. I have had many emails on this subject and I will put everyone's mind straight later on. In the meantime, everywhere I go around here people seem to have big bets riding on Wunders Dream, after Hugs Dancer won the first leg of "local trainer" double. Sadly we are not one of those people, but Wunders Dream is seriously fancied although I personally would not risk a lot today at all. I did say the other day that Style Dancer would get us our money back, and I was a little miffed at the riding by Holland, although it was clear we would not have beaten True Night. I would like to think my opinions will be vindicated today.

I'm sorry there is very little info today but I have some worrying things to deal with at work.

1800 I cannot take any responsibility for Wunders Dream although a few did back it at 8-1. We did not of course. At the moment the Glamour Tipster is showing us up with the second winner from 3 bets at Goodwood. We lost a little on the share price with Style Dancer and nothing else was backed.

I now need to chat about the system bets which have attracted a huge amount of controversy during the past few days. I thank you for your support but whilst it is now clear the bets have been compromised by someone we still intend to go with it until September. Daz and myself discussed the situation and out of spite we have been told the bets will be published on as many message boards as possible. We cannot compete with people like that, therefore, we will not be taking on any new people at all from today. It was our intention to get enough cash in order for us to be able to run the site without dipping in our own pockets, and subject to us doing ok during the next few months we will do that. If anyone is passing information on I will eventually find who it is and they can take their profit and move on. This is not the first time this has happened, and when you close ranks and not let people in, things can get a little peculiar at times, and people resent the "closed shop".

The thing that really concerns me is the possibility of more people accessing these bets, because if that continues we will see SP's effected. It does look like that is happening because we did have a bigger win strike rate in July than June with far less success. That is something you must bear in mind, but I feel that this system normally makes such good profit during the 5 months of operation that it will take something really tragic to cut the profit down to an amount where it becomes not worthwhile. I have analysed the month and I feel we could have had a bit more luck to be honest but overall the horses don't appear to have run as well as usual and we seem to have lacked that one decent priced winner that every month normally gives us. Many more have unplaced, and that is unusual. So in 75 bets with an investment of £3000 you are looking at a very poor performance in July compared with last July when we made 37points profit. The positive side to all this is the poor performance has not produced a level stake monthly loss although I appreciate one or two newbies will be down a little. I will also say that please do not judge this system on one month, by all means stop backing if it is too much pressure, but have faith, despite the fact that we have no control over it really. You have to take into consideration that the weather in July has been the worst on record nearly, and whilst this is not an excuse, you have to look at ways as to why the profit hasn't been as good. All in all, we just stick rigidly to it and hope at the end of the period it comes up in our favour. Nothing we do at Successful Betting is short term, we have conditioned ourselves to losing in our quest for profit, and any profit is good profit when there are so many losers around. It appears that one or two find that part very difficult, they expect success every day. I am sorry but I simply cannot do that.

Finally, lets keep our sense of humour and worry about the important things in life, which brings me on to the little baby who is coming along fine despite a few breathing scares. As for the stalker, his time will be up sooner rather than later.

Result: Style Dancer Los

Wednesday 31 July 2002

0930 Last day of a very difficult month and today is no different. I look at quite a few today but it could be that we don't have a bet at Goodwood due to prices and weather. The ones that do stand out are Distinction in the Gold Trophy and Zuhair. The latter is always prepared for this race and generally succeeds. It is not often we venture into 2 year old territory but Summerland is possibly a bet too, but I'm waiting until later. The one bet we have had is Gamra in the 8.00 Kempton. Don't get too excited though I couldn't get much on at the price I wanted.

It's a case of what a difference a day makes with the system bets, and I feel we could profit even further today, but I should keep my mouth shut really.

2100 We did ok today with a smallish ew double on Distiction and Zuhair that returned just under £200 lost on Gamra. Share price is up 2p on the day. System bets were disappointing especially the odds on loser. As much as I hate short prices that was in fact the first loser we have had at odds on this season. 

Finally there has been quite a bit of things said about a certain service that appear to be coping our selections. They can deny it if they wish but I just leave the jury out. To come back and say that the system was not the same because they didn't pick our losers is farcical. Personally no service should really rely on a system until it has been thoroughly proven for at least a full season. We currently have 4 on the go being paper tested and none are in any way like another person systems.

Result: EW double Won Gamra unplaced

If any NON shareholders want to know  the system bets for  today , follow the NO FEES Policy. 

I will continue to repeat myself for the next few days just so that people are aware that the system bets will no longer appear on the website, simply because too many people were backing them. Any shareholders who require these bets who have not emailed me please do so and I will send them daily. Shareholders do not pay any fees and never will. We had a great start to the month yesterday and July has always been a brilliant month for these bets and I hope this year will be no different. System bet results will be displayed on the site as normal after racing.

We are so confident we can make money for everyone who subscribes to our system bets that we will refund the cost of fees to anyone who has not made enough profit to cover our fees (less the credit card admin fee of course). This system ends on the 30 September 2002 and we do not back again until next year, so we gain nothing if we are not successful. That is how confident we are!!!

It is not our policy to bombard people's in boxes so anyone who has not subscribed to our NO FEES policy will no longer receive system bets or daily information. We will however, send you one email in September to show you the profit made and offer you a place next year. In the meantime enjoy your backing and I hope the information we have given you has proved useful, having made 21 points profit in May and 31 points profit in June. The "Golden Period" of the Flat is the only decent time to make good profit so don't miss out.

If you want the bets in future follow our link to our NO FEES POLICY and start winning.

Tuesday 30 July 2002

0930 I have pressing issues in my normal business so again I'm struggling for the next few days and I will have to break at the beginning of August to go to court to defend myself against a nutter who has been stalking my staff. Don't worry I'm innocent!! I can assure you that when I do get the time I will produce the detail as I've done of late so please bear with me.

Today sees the first day of Glorious Goodwood, a beautiful setting high on the timeless South Downs. I have always enjoyed this meeting because one of the best tracks in the country and you can never have any excuses if your horses are beaten here. I prefer the Wednesday but there is enough to get your teeth into today if you do want to play. I have a soft spot for the Bonus King and this horse will love the track so at 4-1 this looks a decent bet to me and we have played. The 2 handicaps are interesting but difficult but at 14-1 we must play with Hambleden. This horse is up against it's conqueror at Newbury but the apprentice showed Phil Robinson how to ride here and stole the race when everyone else was napping. Hambleden is a horse which likes to get settled and challenge without being put under pressure. This has not happen in all the runs so far and I'm just hoping we can see the horse perform like I know it can. If anyone does watch this race as soon as Hambleden gets pushed along you can forget it, but if the horse appears to travel well about 3 out you can go and collect. This horse hasn't been unlucky in it's last 3 races it simply hasn't performed as I know it can, it is better I'm sure of it despite the 3 seconds.

The 5.00 sees Styledancer from Tim Easterby's yard make the long trip down and what a chance it appears to have. I don't think there is a horse today who has everything perfect for him like what this one has. He will get a strong pace, he has got a plum draw, right mark, right ground, and most of all right price. The run at Beverley last time was a waste of time on the ground and it it very significant that Richard Quinn is on again, who has only ever ridden this horse once before ever and won. Surely this is a must for the first 4 at the very least.

We have also had some interest in Late Arrival at Beverley which unfortunately is another race that clashes with the system bets. That is unavoidable but Late Arrival must be backed at the price today. When you rerun the race that a few of these clashed in last time, it would appear that First Maite was unlucky not to beat Mehmass. That may be the case but if you get chance look at the race again and look closely at Late Arrival who was hampered twice when going for a gap. The interest thing about LA is that he has a terrific turn of foot when asked but can only sustain it for a short period and then just drops into a whole. Ok yes difficult ride one would say, but I do feel if the jockey can get this right we might get a return here. My only worry is Dale Gibson, this guy analyses a race too much instead of getting on with the job and riding, but I do feel at the price we have to play.

All in all a 3 share loss if we get a blank day, but lets look what we have, 3 horses all over 12-1 that have excellent chances and a 4-1 bet that is a very trusty sort who really battles 100%. I will do a Lucky 15 on these at my local Dones where I get 3 times the odds one winner, not a big bet, because it does need to be, cos if we were lucky enough to get all of them up we are looking at a near 20 grand payday for a £15 bet. If you wanted to play EW as well even that will pay nearly £400 if all are only placed. So I stress you don't need to spend alot of your cash. Look at the size of our bank and we are playing just £30 on this bet and 2 places at 4-1 and 12-1 will return half the bet. Think about that please!!

System bets are really frustrating this month and we cannot pull away. The sad fact is that this system has now been comprised by someone who is passing it off as there's. There is nothing I can do.  We have 4 more today, but I have mixed feelings as 2 clash with shareholder info, but that's the way sometimes. If both lose I'll be a bit sick.

1730 I cannot work this racing game out sometimes. Shareholders have a decent month and system bets become extremely frustrating. Today I really though I chosen some good selections at decent prices and they get battered. Maybe Style Dancer was ok but when I saw Holland riding I was certainly not confident. I trust we will be able to get our money back on that. Johnson also is a sod as far as I am concerned, The Bonus King ran areal stinker and Scott's View hacks up. Certainly both Bandari and Scott's view are the type of horses that you often cannot quite understand why you didn't back them after the race. We lost 3p on the share price. One thing I found particularly annoying was I swerved Rutland Chantry due to an early price of 7-4 and missed it totally.

In contrast the system bets came to our rescue with a 5-1 and 4-1 winner which  amazingly should put us in profit for the month, which at one point didn't seem like happening at all. I sometimes wonder what is going on!!! Is this game easy or difficult...you decide!!!! 

Result: all selections were hammered loss on day.

Monday 29 July 2002

0700 I have looked at Folkstone and the only interest I can see in Shady Deal in the 4.00. This horse might appear to like softer ground but I feel that he has been unlucky not to have won on fast ground. I think he will have far too much ability in this grade and when this horse has a going day, nothing  gets near it. Not a big bet by any means and should return around £300 if successful.

We may have a bet this evening I will update here later. Sorry it is short and sweet, very little else at all today apart from the system bets which look good today.

2045 No bet this evening and no complaints on the day. Shadey Deal ran well but the winner was very impressive. Systems bets again ran ok with the exception of College Maid but Currency did look good. Just the one winner overall and I have to say the prices are getting caned and I am pretty sure it is due to this system being far too popularised of late.

Result: Shadey Deal finished 3rd

Sunday 28 July 2002

0900 I'm a real glutton for punishment, spent most of the day in bed and then last night spend the whole of the night testing a computer form book that a company had asked me to do. So I'm very with it this morning, I think I can recite nearly every horse that is running today. Trouble is, I now have a thorough knowledge of the days racing on a Sunday and the good lady wants to go to a car boot sale. So it is no details, Sunday is a known dangerous day if I spend to much time on the PC so here goes in quick time. We will be risking 2 shares in total, spread around a little. The main interest is an EW double on Champion Lodge and Revilliz. One of our noted horses, Peruvian Chief has been given an excellent chance by the handicapper because for the past 4 decent runs he has kept the horse on 86. That is a little unusual and with the conditions perfect looks sure to feature. Price could be better though but the horse is in top form.

Finally I want to take Parkside Pursuit on with Ragamuffin. PP has been impressive of course, but is still a stone worse with regard to abilty and this very fast ground will be a great leveller in the weights, so a short price about PP is maybe not a good idea. My  only piece of annoyance is that this race has 15 runners. Had we got the magical 16 dead, it would have been a very decent EW on Ragamuffin.

Nothing else to add apart from I'll be watching the price of Far Lane at the off, if 8 remain and we get a decent price, it could be a very good opportunity to recover yesterday's loss with very little risk.

One system bet today only. Keep hanging in we'll do ok.

1800 EW double was fine when I found out Champion Lodge was a non runner. Revillex won won at 4-1, giving us a good return. I was beginning to think like a mug punter as yesterday we were robbed on the line when in front and today we were robbed from the horse in front. I just could not believe out luck with Far Lane. I got 4-1 EW dead 8 and lost a little on the bet in a bobbing finish. Profit on the day as share price rises slightly and both System bets were non runners, and we swerved Ragamuffin due to price.

Result: EW Double won Champion Lodge Non Runner Revillez Won 4-1 Far Lane 2nd

Saturday 27 July 2002

0900 Watch the early start today!!! I am going to keep this as brief as possible because I'm feeling a little under the weather today and will probably go back to bed. I haven't been able to get as much study in for the Scoop 6 as I would have liked and I have decided to reduce the bet for a number of reasons. Mainly, the perm I would have used has not really turned out ideal for such big fields, and you are producing extra lines for very little extra cover and it would be just like putting money down the drain. The Scoop 6 is not  a bet we have ever done before simply because of it's lottery type style and at a minimum of £2 per line  I'm not happy at risking such a large sum when there is a very good chance it could go down at the first hurdle. It is race 1 where I'm struggling, had it been Race 6, I possible wouldn't have minded because we would have had a run for our money. Anyway this is what we've done:

Race 1: Mana Pools, Swyford Elegance

Race 2: Aahgowangowan, Yorkie

Race 3: Jedeydd, Cardinal Venture, Tony Tie

Race 4: Ghannam, Chookie Henton, Suggestive

Race 5: Whistler, Charlie Parkes

Race 6: Chantilly Myth

We have also had decent money on Chookie Henton and Ghannam, in fact if Chookie Henton wins we will get our biggest payday of the season. Nothing else has been backed on a hard day. We managed Atavus last year for a good payday and I am very confident we can repeat with Chookie Henton this year.

The system bets could provide a real headache for us today as we have 8 for the second time this season. I need this like a hole in the head today, but we must go for it, and we will do £70 worth of 4 timers on behalf of shareholders as well as lever stake backing.

Overall a lot going and nil return will knock 5p off the share price, so it's either our biggest win of the season or our biggest loss. Get all yer fingers crossed, it's going to be a fun day and I hope to be returning with good news.

1810 We cannot complain really Chookie Henton didn't perform but Ghannan was unlucky not to give us a decent return. The Scoop 6 was a pain and I'm so glad I swerved the big one. A 5p loss on the share price today, and the system bets continue to frustrate with Secret Conquest looking all over the winner only to be beaten ahead at 6-1. 3 winners at poor prices and a non runner sees us continuing to hang in this month.

Result Ghannam and Chooikie Henton coupled (Ghannam 2nd) Nil Return

Friday 26 July 2002

0730 It is a horrendously difficult day today but we do have one serious interest and a few bits of fun to try and set us up for tomorrow. I really do want some success today as it will put some confidence in my study for the Scoop 6. Had a very mixed day yesterday with a difficult chat with my lawyers, but a nice end to the day when my daughter passed her driving test and one of my managers gave birth unexpectedly to a 3lb baby girl just after leaving work today. So my feet having touch the ground, and I'm still very worried for the tiny little thing born after only 32 weeks. I hope you didn't mind me sharing that with you.

The main racing interest for us comes in the 2.45 where I have had a noted horse on my list for some time who I have always been convinced would win us money and it's payback time. If you remember we backed Gracilis on soft ground at a good price and it ran terrible and I always felt we would wait for a good performance on better ground and gauge when the trainer was about to strike afterwards. Well it's today in my opinion, and Fallon is booked. I haven't time to delve, but this will feature I'm sure of it. Fallon will hold it up and come late. We have 9-1 and 8-1 and I expect to collect on this. I am concerned about Doctor Cool who is another noted horse who was running in unsuitable conditions last time, and before that was given a mickey mouse ride. 2 miles will be tough and unproven but you never really know, but at least it is a decent price to cover our bet. 

We are also going to have a bit of fun. This is a risk and I stress very little outlay, but I'm trying to achieve a good lay bet in the 8.55 by backing 4 horses in just over an hour to have a decent amount of our cash running on to Flymore in that 8.55. The four horses who I feel will win are Night Diamond, Stage Direction, Northpoint and Dorchester. My intention is to put them in 10 trebles and 5 x 4timers with Flymore. Can I stress again that I am purely informing shareholders  what I'm doing here. The bet is a good one but I would not expect everyone to just follow this willy nilly. It is more likely to lose than win, but my reasoning is that if we do get the a treble early we can lay it off on Flymore and cheer on a system bet also. So by 8.55 I'm hoping we can get in a strong position.

The system bets are testing and I know some of you who are losing a little will be saying to yourselves this is it. The last chance. All I can say is our policy when deciding to follow anything is to stick to the bitter end. We have lost mini banks doing it in the past, but the amount of times we have took on Sod laws (i.e stopped and found the bets win after we stop) and beat the system as the bets recover. I'm sure this will happen, but I do appreciate a losing run plays havock with the gremlins. I know this isn't much consolation but from a market point of view, if I can demonstrate yet again that long term profit can be made from a system with such a poor period that has to be a positive step for when we go again next year. The sad thing is that I wish a few had been with us earlier, so it doesn't hit the pocket so much.

Nothing else to add and if we do get a laying situation tonight I will update, in the mean time we will get our priorities right today and pray that this little baby will pull through.

2100 When you pick a horse and play, whilst you always expect them to win, the hope is that they run to form, but unfortunately we were denied that today with Gracilis who virtually pulled up. We were the dealt with some servere bad luck in the shape of Woodbury who we had as a bet 6 days ago and I was just half a sleep I think, were on Dorchester which would have given us a good treble, and to be pipped by Woodbury hurt I can tell you. Night Diamond cost us 5 place 4timer and we had to be satisfied with one which gave us a 2/3rds return on our stake, and the Dorchester photo cost us £600. All in all a good performance which didn't quite come off. System bets broke even and Pie High was another beaten in a photo. Share price down 2p to 5.49 but on the whole a close day and worth playing.

Result: Gracilis unplaced

Thursday 25 July 2002

0700 I had a very long day yesterday and ended up in bed early, so that was the reason for the lack of evening update. I have an employment problem which is likely to take up a considerable amount of my time for the next few days. I will be trying not to miss the odd good un but the study will be light and so will the bets, so go steady. Apart from the Scoop 6 of course. I'm really sorry the system is going through a rough patch, they are running ok but cannot produce at the business end. I appreciate we are still winning long term but I do feel sorry for the ones that entered the affray for July. Also one has to be thinking about our cost too if we fail to make profit. Anyway no more doom and gloom if you can handle it still, you really must stick with it or else it's pointless going for it in the first place. At the end of the period you just have to say to yourself it works for me or it doesn't but I know a couple are getting very twitchy but please judge at the end of September, that has always been my view even when I was getting "nicer" emails earlier in the season.

I picked out 4 possibles today and we will play on 2, the others are too short. There is a bet that stands out today and we should play big really, but mentally I don't want to risk  too much this week especially with the Scoop 6 pending. I will be brief, Delegate won a C handicap at Newmarket and is now in a E class claimer with horses that really have nothing to get excited about. This may have the look of a fluke possibility about it and if you chose any other horse to win this race apart from Delegate, you  either don't know what you are doing or picking the names from a hat. This is a situation where I can see no foreseeable danger on paper, therefore, in my price stipulation Delegate would warrant a price of Evens. If it was Evens it would be no bet, end of story. However, on the exchanges I have managed a small bet at 5-2. If this wins today we will have a wager on the soft at Hamilton, if it doesn't we still might but the stake will be somewhat limited.

No system bets today which is a blessing at the moment, and I will update later on with news about this evening.

1730 We did ok today but was pretty hacked off at the average level matched on Betfair after thinking we had 5-2. If it hadn't have won I would have been livid because I would not have backed the horse at 7-4. We have taken 20-1 about Spree Vision in the last at Hamilton. I appreciate that Oulton Broad has been revitalised at the new stable, but you still cannot get away from the fact that SV is still a stone and half better ability wise and although OB has beaten SV the weight rise is more likely to effect OB that SV. A five pound pull is not a lot for 4 lengths, but the big swaying factor is that the 20-1 against th 3-1 is just far to tempting to miss out on. Please bear in mind that Spree Vision is 9-1 with some firms. We wouldn't back it at that price. It is also difficult to gauge how good Jewel of India is but I felt it would be very short and appears to be a backable price, but as yet have NOT played on that horse.

2300 Profit on the day, we swerved Prescotts and had a small loss on Spree Vision which looked to be travelling extremely well until hitting a brick wall.

Result: Delagate won 7-4 Spree Vision unplaced at 20-1

Wednesday 24 July 2002

0800 It not a bad days racing today and if I was purely pin pricking I would expect to get a few winners, however, none are prices that warrant a decent risk so it looks like a quietish day with regard to outlay. I don't really need to delve into detail the reasons why I think it is easy today because most are obvious. Freya's Dream was a winner for us last time in a decent but lucky double and it would be a brave person to pick any other in the race to stop the hat-trick despite my hatred of handicap hatricks. This is one of 2 horses today that could defy my theories. The other is Croeso Croeso who was always going to win at Bath despite a spirited effort from Flymore. In fact Flymore would be a strong choice at Catterick if the ground is fastish, now that his form appears to have returned. Could run up a sequence. Finally, the last one is possibly the best bet of the day, but still no single bet due to the price. Concubine, could have been called the winner a long way out after travelling supremely well at Epsom. Got a very good draw too that day, and this was one of those winners that nobody finds out about until it's too late and a heavy gamble was landed. Has to follow up surely under a penalty against a field that's looks absolute dross.

So no singles, and will possibly hope for a small multiple to give us a return, go steady if you follow, cos there are also 3 system bets today, and I don't want people losing too much. Often when selections look easy they all get battered, and I generally like to back horses with reasons that noone else has spotted.

I will update later on the evening stuff if things change.

Result: Small multiple one winner nil return

Tuesday 23 July 2002

0800 I like Tuesday's, just the two meetings, and a day where I can get my teeth into a couple of cards. I have pulled out a beauty today which is 90% covered by the conditions and the only risk I appear to have taken is that it hasn't won since it's 2 year old days. That doesn't concern me too much because I still think we have a winner here and it has been backed already to win us £800 which is the biggest bet for a long time. We have NOT done this EW at the moment but have done an EW double with a horse at Ayr which I will mention later. It is possible I may cover the place side of the Yarmouth bet but I really don't know at the moment, it naturally depends on the first bet. This wager today will lose us a couple of shares at least if it fails, but I feel we have done so well this month that a bigger bet is worth the risk. The horse is Forever My Lord, we have a terrific price of 6-1 and this horse is bound to feature. This horse was claimed by Pro gambler turned claiming man Dave Nevison. He has found a new vocation in life I feel cos he can't make a living backing horses. He's doing well too with some clever buys for John Best. We just have to back this today running off 54. Go back and look what this horse did in the claimer 2 races ago. What happened was it came back to it's 2 year old form. Running off a mark of 50 it annihilated 5 of the six horses that were rated over 70, the only one it failed to beat was also a back to form Mana-Mou-May who had just run in the the Royal Hunt Cup off 85 and was once touted by Hannon as classic material with a rating of over 100. I suppose you could say that on the above scenario, why hasn't it won in the 2 runs for it's new stable. I can put this down to a number of reasons which shouldn't be discussed, but it seems very noticeable to me that Eddie Ahern is on today in preference to a "jocked off" Rob Thomas, which could indicate the horse should have won last time when the money was down. I think compensation is on the cards and my only worry is that Frankie might have gone to the seaside with the wife, and just decided to pop into to the course for one ride as an after thought. Some hope!!! Tarboosh is a danger of course, and I am so convinced Forever My Lord will either be second to Tarboosh or win this, if you want to cover, it may be better doing the exacta as far as profit is concerned. Whatever, happens I think Forever My Lord is an outstanding wager today, and overall if it does fail today we will probably continue until it does win because this is the nearest we have had to a sure fire future winner for a while, and if he can give a stone in weight to handicappers in their 70's and still beat them a stone he shouldn't have any trouble beating Tarboosh off 75.

I'm not so confident about the the first selection Exeat because this horse is known to have good days and bad days. I have back this horse early on the strength of Ho Leng being pulled out which I hope will happen. That will leave only 3 that I feel can win this race, with the obvious one being the 3 year old Pie High. Just look what Exeat did to near 80 odd handicappers at levels last time he appeared in classified race at Ayr. In addition to that statement the horse it beat with the rest nowhere, Phrryic, you have to decide is that horse better that Pie High. Johnston will know that of course but we have to take it on paper that it isn't so Exceat should win, or at least beat Pie High to give me second prize for reasoning.  

Had an email from shareholder number 98 which I will share with you:

Dear Mick

I am a little disappointed with the profit we have made this month in relation to our total bank. I have worked out that to level stakes the bets have been remarkable yet we have only made just over a thousand in profit. Surely you should adopt a staking plan to give us more profit for such good results, can you give me some idea as to what you do as I have made far more profit that what you have and my bank it far smaller.

Keep up the good results and do you think the system bets will improve.

Ben

This was my reply:

Dear Ben

I will do a rare thing and put this email on the website without your permission because I want people to see the type of emails we get at times, so I hope you understand. I am staggered by this to be honest, and it all comes down to the word "hindsight" yet again. You tell me what the results I will produce for August and I'll give you a staking plan that will make us 10 grand, or better still, you produce the results and see if we do as well.

I feel like turning into Jim "look what you could have won" Bowen. If I looked back over the years and assessed what I could have won after the event I'd have been living my retirement in Barbados years ago. Ben you really must get this way of thinking out of your head. You must base staking on a strategic plan to cover winning and losing, and base it more on preventing loss, rather than winning more. Everything is fine when things are going well, it is being able to handle things when they don't go well that is important. I did ok most years during summer, but I never changed my way of thinking, I always treated the game with the utmost respect. You mentioned the system bets and will they improve, the answer is I haven't a clue, it is non emotional backing, however, I liked to think that my staking is now proving it's worth, because the guy who I advised to stop using a 20point bank would possibly have shot himself by now after being happy as larry in the early part of June. That doesn't mean I don't care, it is just fact.

I will point out that the profit made in July so far for shareholders is £1,230, by anyone's standards that is good, and if we do that in August I will be equally as happy as it will have put 12% profit on the bank in 3months due to conservative backing. I honestly believe there is very few that can do that. It is very easy to be tempted to risk more money just because it is available to you. Mentally, this game is tough, and I know what it is like to lose big amounts on a personal basis, therefore, when it is someone else's money the suffering on my part would be worse and I will not put myself in that position. Also we do not back level stakes, although I thank you for showing the profit to level stakes to every bet, realistically though 60 points profit would not be achieved, as the bets are graded in confidence and whilst Pax won at 16-1 we won far more on shorter priced selections.

Cheers

Mick

There are 2 system bets today and one is a professional loser who has actually been napped in some sources. Wouldn't it be amazing if this horse put us back on a winning run with the system bets. I think we deserve it don't you??

1800 If anyone sees two horses on their way home from work it was the ones we backed today. I can't believe we were outshone by the Glamour Tipster. System bets hung in, and one of the system bets, Little John, completes his 57th race without a win. Now racing off 33 it is hard to believe this horse was once rated in the seventies. I don't think it will even win a walk over. My excuse is that I was distracted in my quest for the Scoop 6. :-) Share price down 2 points to 5.51.

Result: Both horses today were unplaced

Monday 22 July 2002

0900 I tried to find something that was a decent price today because nothing really stands out, but we do have a learning situation today, which some may find interesting. We could consider the Lincoln form again in the showcase at Ayr where Lord Protector seems to have a decent chance, however, this horse has had umpteen chances to win since the all weather win and doesn't appear to be that genuine, so when asked to take a price of 3-1 you have to take a side step. I would be more happier backing LP in a big field with a far greater price, because I do think it will win eventually but nothing is being done to lower it's mark. In fact while I was assessing this race I noticed how disappointing Up Tempo had been lately when favourite. This is another horse that is proving difficult to win with and again if the price had been short it would immediately have been stuck off. However, the more you delve into the race the more I think we should have a go at this, although immediately we know it will not be a big bet because it has not proved it can win at this distance, so there is a little guess work, but not that much really because the horse has run well enough over a mile to nullify that.  The reasons that make a horse worthy of the little guesswork is the price, so I would have to be looking at around the 10-1 mark for this race to get any decent value on current form. 

If you were to take the best form of this horse, you could gauge just how poor value a few of these are. I often go back a year or so to see what horses are capable of and to see why they haven't won previous and what makes them alive candidate under today's conditions. The interesting thing about Up Tempo is that just over a year ago it ran against Lord Protector at Haydock in a very good handicap off 89. That day it was beaten by  Lord Protector by just under 2 lengths. The sad thing is that David Arbuthnot is either a bad trainer or a very honest one because both horses still haven't won since, and LP is on a mark 3lbs higher and UT is down as low as 73. Yes a weight difference of nearly a stone and a half and Lord Protector is favourite. I am not saying Lord Protector will not win, what I'm saying is that if you back horses at such bad value when the clues tell you not to, you will most certainly lose long term, and how the Racing Post make this their nap is beyond me. When you first look at this race, LP appears to jump out at you and it will be the first selection most people will want to back. In reality, it is a very poor bet indeed. The other piece of information with regard to the value and pricing up of the race is Uhumagoo. This horse should not be a lower price than Up Tempo either, but it is, so again if you back Uhumagoo, you are doing yourself an injustice. Why one might say. If you go back a very short time to Uhumagoo's win at Carlisle when Up Tempo was favourite, there was 2lbs difference for 2 lengths, we now have both horses meeting again with Uhumagoo  11bls worse off. There is no way Uhumagoo should be a worse price than Up Tempo but the bookies will do anything to get people to back at bad value, because they know how punters generally think.

This value thing is something that baffles many people. I like to think I know a bit about value and I often assess other tipster selections to see why they pick them. I will not ever disgrace a tipster firm who tips come from stables sources, all I will say is that I am a firm believer that information from stables doesn't pay because the "real" information noone finds out about. If the tipster firm considers themselves form experts, I just love looking at their selections because I can assess how good they are and whether they are guessing or not with their selections. At Successful Betting we are always on the lookout for people to follow, it can take the pressure of us, however, this season we have failed miserably because there isn't anyone out there we can trust with our money. I have assessed many and certainly some of the form ones make the most basic of errors. I know most people judge a service on results, which is natural, I tend to judge a service on what they know, and how they use that know how on a long term basis, simply because anyone can have 2 or 3 months of luck, it is over a 6 month period when the men are separated from the boys. I would NEVER follow a service that continually backs EW singles, people who do this haven't clue when it comes to money management.

Next time you look at a race with regard to value, do comparison's with other races and you will soon learned whether or not you are backing a horse at the right price. The beauty about handicaps is that you have a history and as Lloyd Grossman would say "the clues are there," it's just a matter of taking some time to look for them. Finally, I must add that 90% of the time you will assess a race and produce a nil bet, or a loser. The hard part is getting you mind right to persevere time after time in your quest for a winner.

Just to recap, cos I've probably lost everyone by now, SB has backed Up Tempo at 9-1. I am happy with that but I will not back it any lower, if it does return to form I would expect it to go very close. People have backed this to favouritism in 2 of the last 3 runs, and have been punished by backing at bad value. We have hopefully done the right thing today and  I took enough on the exchanges to win £400. Had it been a better price I may have backed it with a toosh more cash.

There are 4 system bets today which are ok I feel, surely we cannot have a week like last week, so we will be looking for better things.

Important notice: Next Saturday sees a Scoop 6 that is well worth a go. It is the first time this season that has made us sit up and take notice. That is obviously due to the win pool of over one million. I am pretty sure I can get close if the races are what I think they will be. It will involve a drop of 15p on the share price if we lose and a rise of about £180 per share if we win. It is tall order but I feel that our slogan "the reward must be worth the risk" will never be more appropriate than on Saturday.

Evening Update

2200 Very little to say only that we suffered today. Up Tempo was beaten by the only horse I didn't give a prayer to, the outsider of the field that had not run on the flat for 375 days. The system horses ran well, and 3 were so unfortunate, especially Fortune Point who let the winner back up again after looking sure to win. We lose 4 points which is bad, and a small loss on the share price which doesn't affect the actual stated price on the site.

Result: Up Tempo 2nd 10-1 (beaten by the outsider who had not run on the flat for 375 days.

Sunday 21 July 2002

No Racing

Saturday 20 July 2002

1130 This will be short today as I have had a few important things to sort out at my business, so sorry for the delay. I don't want to use much of the profits from yesterday, so we will be taking it steady. I cannot see anything to really get my teeth into so we may risk a small amount for a big return from two horses that are attractively priced. One is our old friend Naviasky. I think it looks as thought it might be at it's tether as far as the weights are concerned but we need to give it one more go, seeing as though the price is so good, just to make sure. I intend to do the ew double with a horse called Woodbury in the 4.45 aswell. This would not really be a consideration because of the run in an E handicap last time, but it ran extremely well under unsuitable conditions, and I would rather base my opinion on the run at Salisbury when he battled back to win going away on ground only slightly faster than today.

There are a few that could be considered, someone asked me to do a brief on the big sprint. All I will say is that Wunders Dream is bad value but the trainer lives not far from me and he will not hear of defeat. Two horses that take a drop in class are Vision Of Night and Tobougg. In fact fact Tobougg is a massive drop and with  Foreign Affairs in the race people might give people an opportunity to back it, although we won't.

I have considered a couple more but I could go on all day with the amount of races that are scattered around today, but I'd end up not knowing whether I was coming or going.

There are no system bets today which is surprising considering the amount of meetings today. One system bet was a non runner yesterday so it was only point loss yesterday, still not good, but better than of late.

There might be abet this evening at Haydock but I will update after 6pm.

1800 No show today and a slight drop in the share price but no worries it's been a good week for shareholders but poor for system horses. If there is one consolation I will say it is rare to have such a bad week for the system bets and we will hope for better. No bet this evening at the moment, I was looking at Portacasa but I need a better price, and possibly not going to get it. Naviasky was a non runner.

2200 Portacasa was not a confident bet but as former system horses are doing outstanding at the moment we did back it very small to recover small losses today to counteract what I said at 1800. We now show a small rise on the day but nothing to write home about.

Result: EW double lost - Portacasa WON 3-1

Friday 19 July 2002

0700 What a day today is, there is so much going on it is difficult to cope, but most of the business is this evening. It is day where I will be shocked if we don't get some sort of return. I will concentrate mainly on 2 horses but, there are many others that could run well. Maybe a shame we cannot do them all but a small multiple will be on the cards today. The main interest is on an outstanding wager in the 7.35 at Ponte in the shape of My American Beauty. I have my eye on this horse for some time and as yet never had the correct conditions to play, however, having seen it perform the other day behind Brave Burt, I am convinced this horse will win tonight. I'm not concerned about Tommy Smith as that horse is drawn wide and I did think his last win was a fluke, and in all honesty I feel TS has done us a favour by getting us a backable price of 5-2 on AB which is ok, although I will say that the short price does stop us from having a decent bet and we will win around £200 when it wins. Not the word "when". Ponte is an awkward course at times and whilst it is an advantage to be drawn low, slow starting horses can actually get boxed in and lose all chance at the start so it is vital My American Beauty gets away fairly sharpish and maintains a position until the bend. If he does what I expect, the horse will be in the first 4 approaching the bend and then kick away for the final run in, and win well.

The second piece of interest is in the first race at Newmarket when Lygeton Lad appears to have a great chance of returning to winning ways, and the last run in unsuitable conditions can be ignored. However, it is competitive and we will not back this in a single bet we will put it in an EW double with My American Beauty in the hope we get a couple of hundred running on to it, and if it does lose we still have the best wager as a single. I had to back MAB early cos I think this could get even shorter tonight. I am also going to experiment with a few in a perm. The horses are Hout Bay, Celtic Mill, Lygeton Lad, My American Beauty, Football Crazy, and Kings Crest. The reason for this is that I'm hoping for some form of success for a small outlay, so that we have money running on to the odds on Kings Crest in the last of the selections in the 8.15 at Hamilton. If that does happen we can make a serious amount of cash. I will explain, lets just say 3 out of the four win and we are then looking at Kings Crest for the good return for your risk. If the odd were 5-1, 5-1, and 3-1 and I had risked just £30 on 15x4timers and got 50% winners I'm certain to win around £300. Yes before the next horse has even run. I am winning money and I haven't even got one 4timer up. I must be absolutely mad giving out valuable information like this, but I do it because I want you all to be with us next season when if numbers are really worthwhile I will blow people's mind with alternative ways to make money. I have given strategies out before, but nothing like this, and it's only a taster. Just look what I have said there earlier.....I have placed a multiple bet to do only 4timers yet I win decent cash without even getting a 4timer up. I have therefore given you a damn good reason why you are wasting your money backing trebles in some cases. What is the point in staking a treble when you can win without even staking a treble bet, and win a bet staking only 4timers when you don't get a 4timer up. I find it easy, because if we get 3 winners today, when 8.15 comes I lay Kings Crest to lose £150. I think the price of Kings Crest will be short but it will be perfect if the scenario works. The thing you need to think about relates to the betting shop mug punters slip again..just don't go near them. The exchanges make it even easier to discard them nowadays, and even if this small bet fails, there should plenty of opportunities to exploit this situation in the future, when horses that look promising appear to come together in one day.

Just to show that my hatred of maidens is not absolutely rigid, I will show you a decent wager today hopefully. Can I just make it clear that I would never place serious money on a horse that has not proved it can win but in situations like today we may just get a bit of value against a horse called Romancing. Romancing might be odds on and Prescott might be doing a Chivalry with it, however, Chivalry was winning yesterday off a mark of 73 and had already won 3 previous races. It seems to me that it might be asking a lot for Romancing to be as good as Chivalry at the moment. If it isn't, the prospect could be that Monksfield who has a rating of 70 could beat it. Most of these will be getting marks for their first handicap and there is only 2 I feel that have any chance of getting marks as high as Monksfield so if that is the case this looks like a free EW bet at 6-1 ish, with the added possibility that it could actually win the race. SB has not backed this because we cannot get a price at the moment but we'll see how things go, as the front two in the betting have to be suspect.

Right now, on to the system, there is only one guy I feel particularly sorry for and he has backed every horse in the losing run and did not back Brave Burt cos he joined too late. I must get some success for him as he must think we are plonkers. Today is very promising, and we will do 4 trebles and a 4timer on the 4 system horses. IN ADDITION TO BACKING THEM SINGLY. The multiple will only be a system point bet in total and will come off the share price if it fails, so in effect this bet is costing shareholders around 1/2 a pence only. just incase anyone asks I cannot adopt a similar profile to earlier in the day because one of the system horses runs after Kings Crest and it would be impossible to make the bet pay enough to make the transaction worthwhile.

2120 The small multiples were a disaster caused by 2 poor performances this afternoon, and I am still unhappy with the system horses, Kings Crest winning Friar Tuck unlucky and the rest nowhere. However, I have to consider us very unlucky not to have won a decent amount tonight when everything seemed to be going to plan with Lygerton lad winning very easy and the Tommy Smith rearing in the stalls, so to get stuffed in that Ponte race was annoying and the flippin Tropical Storm didn't help either. The touch of genius came in the last when we manage 7-1 about a free EW bet and Monskford did actually win the race. That gave me satisfaction and the share price rose 3 points on the day. System bet lost 2points again. I won't be totally happy until they start performing again.

Result: EW double one winner and one second Place WON - Monksfield WON 7-1

Thursday 18 July 2002

0700 A toosh unlucky yesterday I feel, Shaffeeq nearly bottled it after looking home and hosed and just held on by a head, Ours was very close behind but some sod ended up in the middle and we lost out on a nice forecast. System bets are performing as I expect at the moment and I will say I haven't been that confident of any of those selections for a while which has shown in my writing, but don't worry, well you can if it feels better. I think they will pick soon, and I don't get much satisfaction about saying this but I did warn yer, that this system is not for the faint hearted. I am really hoping that the new people who have joined us will see the benefits and risk the whole period next year. The reason for this is that it is our intention to just accept people for the whole period from day one and go with it. Taking people on a daily basis does put pressure on because you are anxious to please, we don't get that with shareholders because we have won money for them over the years it does not effect our way of thinking. I hope some understand, but our main priority is our shareholders and we don't want to be affected by the complaints about a 7 or a 9 losing run on the system. With this system it is normal. Last year we had a 22 losing run and the year before a 37 losing run and it still made profit in the 5 month scan. Our main aim it to show people how we operate and that compared with others we work harder to achieve our aim, and hopefully you will be with us for years to come.

1000 Today, I will demonstrate very easily just how stupid punters can be, and how bookies take them for a ride in the most simplest of situations. Birdwatching, ran yesterday and was 3-1 favourite after easily winning at Kempton the previous outing. This horse has absolute no form under yesterday's condition, so it immediately become a prime target as a horse the bookies want to get. My goodness and did they achieve their objective, when punters just take a plunge without even considering the basic rule. We will back this today, ok I know it's soft ground, and because of that the bet will be restricted, but if you look closely we are now backing this horse under the conditions it can actually win at, in addition to that we have a nice high draw. If the punters who backed this horse yesterday do not do it again today, they need their  heads examining, but while they will be doing it to recover losses we will be doing it small to win £200 and have backed it at 7-2.

I am going to take a risk in the very next race at Hamilton because I want to get Chivalry beaten at a short price. On paper it look everyone's backer bet, but whilst we don't know how much Prescott has in the bag with this horse. There are even money shots that I would far rather back, if I did happen to be a short price backer. The alternative has to be an EW at a good price if you can find one. Ok if there wasn't one, forget it don't try too hard, but one stands out a mile for me as a horse to take on this favourite. Why take on Chivalry you may ask...well when you are pitching horses against each other on good ground, the horse with the better ability will nearly always come out better than a horse of lesser ability despite the weight difference. Why one may ask, well the answer is the burden of weight can make a fast horse run slower, but even a very light weight cannot make a slow horse run faster than it's ability allows. If you print that statement on your brain you will go along way to start understanding what handicapping is all about. I have made this statement for one reason, when assessing the  race that Chivalry ran in before it won a handicap off 71 the 2nd horse Irvington was beaten a few days later by 3 horses a stone lighter on good ground, the winner was in fact rated 42, which would make Chivalry a poor bet in it's first handicap. It did win of course, but the only reason why Chivalry won his handicap was maybe because the ground stopped the horses of better ability on paper, which would not have happened probably on Good/firm. I have too agree with the handicappers view on this horse on Soft ground, but I'm not convinced it is worth the rating on firm despite having won on it. I hope I haven't lost people here, but whilst I do think that Chivalry will win today if my assumptions are correct I will take this horse in in a more confident way when it appears on fast ground. The ideal result for me as a prediction would be Chivalry to win and ours finish second or third, but with a bit of luck we might get a far better return than risking good money for a pathetic return. The horse we have backed at 20-1 is Ballyhurry who not only has proven ability on the ground but did run well at Mussleburgh the time before last and with only 9 runners looks a better bet.

The system bet today looks promising for a change and I think this will end the losing run, there you see I do have emotion.

Nothing more to add apart from my old mate Rutland Chantry. It is fancied tonight but like me the trainer would have prefer a slightly bigger field to make the EW worthwhile. It is because of that we have not backed it. I would have had large EW on this had we had 8 runners, because not only has it the form to win, I have been told it will win aswell. I stress SB has NOT backed this horse. 

2230 Profit on a good bet against Chivalry were we has Ballyhurry returning 6-4 finishing 2nd or 3rd with an SP of 8-13 on the winner. The result was as I expected but a clear indication on what a good wager we had. Birdwatching was hit by someone clay pidgeon shooting I think, and Rutland Chantry didn't run, but I'll find out why tomorrow. System bet ran well enough to finish 3rd and we had a little excitement for a change but they are still to find their feet at the moment. Share price up 1p again and system point down to below 60 points. Sorry about that. 

Result: Birdwatching unplaced Ballyhurry EW 2nd 20-1 (took early price) PLACE WON

Wednesday 17 July 2002

0900 The only business for today is this evening and I have no problems putting these out now because we have already backed the horse and can hopefully have a quite relaxing day. The race we have taken an interest in is the 7.50 at Kempton. It is 9 runner race and I feel I have an excellent value bet. I have narrowed this down to two, Shafeeq and Conundrum, and fortunately we have backed the best price of the two which is Conundrum. 6-1 is a brilliant price for this horse and anyone who is wary and backs ew should be safe. In fact this is just the type of bet I used to go for to make big money. 8 -12 runners a near certain EW and with a bit of luck the favourite beaten. The EW was insurance against the big bet, and nothing to do with value. There is rarely value in an EW bet.

I think Shafeeq is a bottler, has looked the winner on his last 2 starts and ended up easily beaten, so I do feel that to take 9-4 is silly despite it possibly also being good value, because I can see ours being the only danger, but when I see only one danger to another at 6-1 there is no contest we back the 6-1 shot. Conundrum, however, was beaten by Suave Performer in a real battle, and as Suave Performer has been knocking on the door for 3 runs, and was a good losing system horse, as I said before no contest. You could argue that we back both, that isn't practical because the reward for a backing both is not worth the risk. If you were worried you could do an exacta on both horses if you wish, it would be far better than backing the only 2 horse you feel has a chance as single bets

Obviously, the result could be totally different, but you base your assumptions on the assessment of a race before hand, what happens after, is hindsight, and the two must never be compared.

Just one system bet today and I would love this one to get us back on track but I'm not confident but we must do of course. It should be a double figure price.

Result: Conundrum 3rd 6-1 Lost

Tuesday 16 July 2002

0800 I will be brief with my assessment today. I haven't been able to do much study as lad has just gone off to Spain and within a day he has been robbed and he has no cash or cards, so I have been trying to sort him out. I may even have to go out there, cos he's been cleaned out and he's rather upset. 

We have had interest in 2 horses today. One won a 22 runner handicap at Doncaster beating Bint Royal who has gone on to win twice since. Freya's Dream seams like a good choice, and fortunately my beautiful wife says so aswell....:-) You know what happens when you spend hours studying the form and the wife looks over your shoulder and says in a second..that one will win...and sure enough it damn well does. Lucky she picked the same as the one I did today...it's the name...you know how it is.

I also expect a horse to follow up his easy Pontefract Win at Brighton today. Compton Arrow would not normally feature as a strong selection due to it not having won over 7furlongs, however, this horse has performed credit over a mile off a mark of 99 in the past, so I think today, on over 2 stone lower mark, it is the only stable runner sent to Brighton and of course his son's only ride. Both these horses will be done in an ew double. The singles will not be done as they are a little short in price. If the Compton Arrow's price does improve and the first selection is a failure we may dabble, but I'm still trying to be careful here despite yesterday's win.

System bets are on a 5 losing run which is frustrating as we were on double staking. We have just the one bet today which is the last of the double stakes so it would be nice to prevail. While we are on this little losing run I will show you an email that a non shareholder kindly send me with regard to ratchet staking. I think there is potential in this but I will explain my views on it.

This was the e mail:

Enclosed your spreadsheet with additions
A Ratchet staking Plan
as inserted in columns N to Q of page 2 of the worksheet
This increases the stake gradually over a period.
(better than just doubling the stakes periodically)
and better than reducing the stakes after a loser !
While I will be using sometimes more than 5 % of the Bank (that's my worry)
you can adjust the percentage stake and starting bank in the green squares
At the bottom of column N there's another formula which can be copied into the rest of the column to round down the stakes to £10
Do you like That ?
Chris

I really appreciated this because and my only criticism really is that it is too dangerous for our system, if it was tampered a bit it would be better for us. This was my reply:

The thing about certain plans is that they have to be workable and with the above plan and the one I demonstrated a few weeks back is it nearly impossible. Because we have done so well, if it were possible to get to this stage we would be placing bets at over a grand a time. I don't believe there is anyone around that would place money of that magnitude on other peoples say so. Over the last 3 days they would have lost around £5,500...ok you could say it doesn't matter because we won a fortune on Brave Burt, but mentally it does matter, the reality is you have lost one hell of a lot of cash in a short space of time, and that will effect everything you do in you day to day life, even things that have absolutely nothing to do with betting, and it doesn't matter how much you have won previously. Keep you staking on a small scale and build slowly, boring I know, but it will be less harm on the ticker.

2200 Very good day for shareholders today with both selections winning. As I said we did not do these singly but had Fraya's Dream been 6-4 when I looked we certainly would not have been on. Luckily I got on early at 5-2 and 4-1 and we made very good profit from a small risk. Sadly, the system bet let us down for £2,300 as we did that in an EW treble too, and for it to finish 4th after one being pulled to make 15 runners was frustrating, but having said that I though Nichols blew it on Compton Arrow by going to the front far too soon. Fortunately for us it hung on by a short head. Share price reaches an all time high for the season of 5.50, but system bets struggling a little as the stakes go back to normal.

Result: EW Double both horses WON at 5-2 and 4-1 

Monday 15 July 2002

0800 It is an easy day today and the share price will not move, no bet, that's why. I cannot even find one that is at a price where we would play so it's a simple decision. The nearest we came was Get Stuck in, who ran well for us at a big price the other day at Hamilton. It has to be noted that Mr Fallon is on board and that has killed the price. I will watch it to see if the price gets competitive but at the moment it's a no no.

Just the 2 system bets today and they do look good to me and I will be surprised if one doesn't win for us. Sorry no more and no sermons today. I will update later.

2100 Shareholders did well today as fortunes shined on us, because I couldn't turn down the 9-2 about Get Stuck In. I am just a little disappointed I was a race out with my assessment. System bets were very disappointing considering the double stakes and that has put us back a few days, on what was a profitable day overall. Share price up to 5.46 and system profit down to 63points

Result: Get Stuck In WON 9-2

Sunday 14 July 2002

0800 Early start and at the moment NO system bet for today. Most of you know by now that I'm virtually banned from going anywhere near the site on a Sunday, so it's off to the greasy spoon for my bacon and egg bun very soon. You don't get greasy food at my places so I have to venture to the sea front.

I haven't anything serious today and very little money will be risked at all, however, if there is the slightest hint of success today, we will get a hell of a return cos I think the two selections will offer a little bit of interest on what is a non event of a day.

I had an email about the bet on Naviasky today and a few informed me that 100-1 was available. I did say people would be an idiot of they had more than a tenner on. Chris (shareholder number 161) mentioned a good point in that if the price was better value than I expected, would it be wise to increase the bet as I had often said this in the past. In this case I personally wouldn't have. When I keyed myself up for a serious bet everything had to fit into the holes as such. The most important being was, if I was putting serious money down I expected the horse to win, that might seem a stupid statement but it amazing how many people actually risk good money when they don't even believe in their own hearts their selection will win. If I had gone through all the preliminaries and put the bet on at the price etc. and then I noticed the price drift, rather than be a little worried about the drift, I would most definitely wade in with more cash to obtain better value than I first expected. Once my money is down my opinions very rarely changed unless something happened to force a change. e.g heavy rain. The Naviasky bet was far too speculative to come into a serious wining category whatever the price. People often back horses because they think they have a good price, but it is pointless backing at big odds when the horse has no chance of winning, and I would not have put Naviasky in that category either, so you are somewhere in the middle, and that's why the bet was worth it at the price. I noticed someone say on aboard that every horse must have a chance of winning, absolutely not, horses sometimes have exactly ....NO chance.

I remember about eight years ago when I fancied a horse from Brian Rothwell's yard, won at Beverley in a maiden  at 16-1 and was down to run at Nottingham not long after. It was an interesting piece of form study because QC beat a horse called Lady Donoghue I think from Mary Reverley's yard in that race, well annihilated it actually.  What happen regarding this horse was fascinating. I had already decided that if this horse was brought out quickish we would be on pretty smartish, provided the conditions were the same and the handicapper hadn't been too harsh. I love horses that run well at Beverley and  I actually put the horse up to 66 from 54, which was an unusually big hike for me, so anything lower was great as far as I was concerned. At the time I was form studying for a crazy pro backer and we had decided we were going to hit this horse when we saw it was down to run at Nottingham, on the Wednesday if I remember. It was on a mark of 59. John was at the course and it opened up at 5-1 and I told him to back it but not to go silly with the first bet. Nottingham was notorious for slashing prices and I didn't want ours to do that, but I was worried we might even lose the 5-1. There were 2 horses from Newmarket, one from Javis's, I think, and the other was a horse called Willow from Lady Herries yard. Willow had opened up at 7-2 and the Jarvis horse was at 9-2, and Lady Donoghue was at 7-1. This is what happen, some big boys came in and hit Willow and it was down to 5-2 and as time went on it was down as low as 7-4 before drifting slightly to 2-1. I could not understand this at all, as  Javis's horse was also being backed, everyone seemed to be forgetting about little Queens Consul from the small Rothwell stable and it went to 6-1. Because so much was going on with the other horses in the race, the rails bookies seemed oblivious to our bet on QC and we got more on. The gambled on Willow was the only winner in most people's mind so when QC drifted to 8-1. I told John to ask around to find the bookie who had layed Willow to big amounts. We found 2 who layed us a considerable sum at 8-1. We had to do this because if we had gone down in the ring and tried to get money on we would have been scuppered and nobody would want to know, as some might not have been so liable against Willow. So we had now backed a horse that we thought was value at 5-1 with bets 4 times as large at 8-1. Even more odd was that Lady Donohue was 6-1 still and it was never going to beat QC never never mind the rest of the field,  LD was on only 5lbs better terms for a thrashing so how it could be a worse price than ours was just stupid , but great. I appreciate it is now hindsight but I don't think I've ever witnessed such a false favourite in my life as Willow, that's why I remember this story so well. To cut along story short, John was shouting down the commentary down the phone and when QC turned into the straight 12 lengths clear I could not believe it, no other horse got a sniff Javis's finished 2nd and Willow was 20 lengths back with the washing. John was the king that night and he celebrated on course big time, which was a stupid thing to do cos 10 days later Queens Consul ran again at Nottingham, and John went to the same bookie who told him to eff off. The horse trounced a good handicapper Knobbleneeze that day off a mark of 67 which chuffed me no end because I'd given it a mark of 66 even before it's last win, and we hit it again but not such a big return because we couldn't get anything on hardly at the price. Queens Consul nearly won at Ponte next time out at 6-1 we just could not believe the price as he was pipped on the line. He did eventually win off 79 a few years later but I got my last go on the horse in 1997 when it won his last race off a low mark of 70. After the first win on Queens Consul I suffered badly, I went out for a walk along the sea front and my heart was still pounding a good hour after the race. It's a terrible feeling believe it or not. When the win is achieved you are graced with elation of course, but then with me, after about a couple of minutes, the heart begins to race rapidly, and just gets stronger and stronger till you nearly cannot speak. The adrenalin nearly comes up through your mouth. That is why I always geared myself up for only a few big bets per season, I simply couldn't handle the winning or the pressure. While John was drinking the Nottingham members bar dry, I was nearly throwing up on Cleethorpes promenade. Crazy I know but absolutely true.  

Right enough of that, go steady if you follow, very low stakes... big possible returns. I won't delve into my reasoning I think you've had enough waffle for one day. Cadeaux Cher 3.20 at Bath with AA-youknownothing 2.00 Haydock. Both should be double figures. Have small ew double and back Cadeaux Cher only if the first is unplaced. Go steady, you have a far bigger chance of losing on this bet. This bet will not affect the share price if it loses, so that will tell you a bit about the size of it.

Just to remind you NO systems bets today as yet....if I have not noticed some that are running again after yesterday I will let you know, but I think there are no qualifiers anyway.

1200 I am sorry but I overllooked a system bet today at Bath....you should all have details by now and sorry for any inconvenience.

Evening Update.

2300 No change to the share price as both selection didn't feature really. I was aliitle annoyed about the system bet I just hate that, you are in a no win situation, if it wins you get emails bollocking me for screwing and if it loses we lose. Maybe in future I should just keep my mouth shut and nobody would be the wiser, but I'm just not like like. I would have felt gutted if it had romped home at 14-1. I will endeavour to be more careful.

Result: EW double lost.

Saturday 13 July 2002

0900 It's John Smith Magnet Cup day and I want the winner of this. Gone are the days when I've lost a personal fortune on this race but it is always one that has passed me by. In fact this race got the biggest egg on my face ever when 2years ago I gave out a handicap certainty in the shape of a Michael Stoute horse. It got hammered, I not even going to name the horse I was so hacked off, and I was even more hacked off when it then went on to win two Group 1 races. I sa this because I just needed to point out just how hard this race is to win. One thing is that if you are drawn wide it is virtually impossible. Other pointers are that horses with more than 8-11 rarely win this race, 3year olds do very well normally and looking at the field I think the younger generation will have the edge this year. It is for this reason that we have gone for Leadership and we backed it yesterday at 9-2 to win us £400. In addition to that we had 2 small bets on a couple of 3 year old outsiders Turbo and Mcbain. The only older horse that I can see getting involved is Torrid Kentavr. Some of you may be thinking, well why bother, well it's a personal thing today, which I appreciate is bad thinking, but I really feel that this year I'm going to break my duck, with a small return for us.

That's just about it, but I'm going to test my info here to see how it effects things, because I think there could be a major shock in the listed race at Ascot. On very rare occasions you get a handicapper who is in top form go and nobble the odd superstar. Remeber Atavus last year.  In the 2.15 we have one such case and the horses in the race are not even superstars they are the nearly bunch who haven't quite done their stuff, and appear to be very inconsistent. The handicapper that could spring a shock is Naviasky. This horse has one hell of turn of foot and it is a lovely price of 50-1 and it is far to tempting for someone like me to turn down. It is not often one gets chance to back at 50-1 on a horse that you think might actually win or go close even. This is one such horse, it will not be 50-1 at the off, go for it before it drops in price, but anyone that puts more than a tenner on is an idiot.

There are 3 system bets today and had we not had one in the 4.10 I may have had a small wager on Flak Jacket. Someone did email me about the multiple yesterday and asked me if the profit won on that bet was included in the points profit and the refund offer at the end of the season. The answer to that is NO, the money that people won on any multiple is purely a bonus. Calculations shown on the site do not include the amounts won with these extra little snippets, it is purely for level stake purposes only.

1800 Excellent start with the first system bet on double staking winning at 11-2, the other 2 did ok at big prices. Leadership hurt, we had it at 9-2 and I felt when it took a slender lead it would use it's stamina to pull away, but alas we were pipped by a neck. 

Naviasky was fun, and it did it's best, and there will be more before the end of the season I'm sure. The one that really proved how difficult this game was was of course Flak Jacket. Nichol loses with it at Beverley at 13-8 fav, then runs it in a better race and it wins at 10-1 and we didn't have a bean on it. I think his dancing round the course will eventually be battered by the stewards if he carries on doing this, he must have made a fortune on that. Nice end to a super week for the system bets, the level stake profit is just over 66points and the points profit to recommended stakes is now just over 69 points. Share price down slightly to 5.44.

Result: Naviasky unplaced Leadership 3rd Loss on day

Friday 12 July 2002

0730 What a day in prospect!! I hate days like this, you just look around at the papers and everything just screams out at you and by the time you have sussed everything out, you get all your bets on and you get hammered, as nothing performs the way you expect. We have the dreaded soft ground all over the place so you can imagine what is coming here. This is the sort of day which brings out the true gamblers, yes the ones that have a bet because the horse has run well of late. They don't consider the conditions at all, and even more do not consider the price of the horses....yes I know just like our system..No seriously our system doesn't really come into this bracket really only sometimes when the prices get a bit smaller than expected. I always look for at least 2-3 points more on the SP on soft ground and then that is purely to compensate for the low stakes. The most criminal act in backing is to back a horse on soft ground with decent cash when the price is wrong. It happens all of the time. I could scan the message boards now and pick a dozen horses that have been selected by people and the horses haven't even any form on soft. That is a basic rule that everyone MUST follow....if a handicapper hasn't won on the ground don't expect it will suddenly change, cos it won't.

I think most of you know by now that when trying to make profit for Successful Betting I always avoid short prices. Over the years I have tried to get people to prove to me that short price backing pays enough make it worth while, but nobody has yet convinced me, and I have just retired after 25 years. Ok, if you playing and having fun, fine, but if anyone does have any aspirations of backing full time, change your attitude and stop backing anything below 2-1. You can make profit of course and we have proved that with the system bets, but it will only be small, and if you are looking to compare full time backing with a proper job earning the average family working wage of say £20,000 a year you are looking at maybe 250 maximum backing days in a year, if working all year around, you need to make at least £80 a day every time you bet to make enough to live on if you have a family. When you don't achieve that the pressure will increase, when the pressure increases your mentality suffers and your decision making becomes suspect. When your decision making become suspect, you take the easy way out and start doing what everyone else does, and that is when you become like everyone else and lose.

The reason why I say all this is because I often get the odd e mail asking what is required to be a full time backer, I think it is some sort of dream for most punters. Can I just say it isn't all it's cracked up to be, because it has to be done like a business, and running a business can be lucrative but it is also very hard work. The only people that make it pay are the ones who sacrifice most things to reach their goal, and if you'll pardon me saying that as most punters are pretty lazy, only a small few will succeed in a similar way to only a small percentages of new businesses succeed. Before I went full time I had already  served a near 16 year apprenticeship. It is not something you guess at, you have to know deep down that you can make it pay or it can wreck you. 

Anyway, enough of that,  if anyone does want to know more, keep the emails coming and I will put a few on the website for interest. 

So what are we doing today, well for the time being not a lot. The races that interest me are the first two at Hamilton. I have put a line through everything else, it would be easy for me to mention a few but in reality I think you all could do as good a job yourselves, and I'm sure that most of you could compete with any "normal" tipster today, and it never ceases to amaze me when tipsters pull out bets like Chianti and Imithian etc for their clients. Any idiot can pick them, you don't need to pay decent money to tipsters for dross like that. You will lose long term or at best make virtually nothing for the time and effort. Just find an even money shot yourself and guess, you have 50% chance of success, just the same as tossing a coin.

With regard to the second race at Hamilton, I have this down to 5, but I cannot give the selection out at the moment because none of the five has a price I like in this ultra competitive affair. I will explain what is going on later but on the website only. I will try and give my reasons why I will not take certain prices, hopefully, we will get a decent bet at a decent price, but it's not the end of the world if we side step, cos it is clearly one hell of day. If I gave it out now I would have no chance of getting a price. Look what happened to Lincoln Dancer yesterday, it was down to 14-1 even before the top two in the betting were pulled, so I hope you understand. 

Looks like we could have some fun with the system bets today, and I know some of you get a bit twitchy when there are a few selections, but stick with it, it's only money and we do have some fun and most do run well, what more can you expect, and don't worry I'm not going to come out with that famous tipster phrase " only bet what you can afford" absolute tosh that, nobody can afford to lose anything, we just hope and pray we are doing the right thing, and our methods continue to stay sound. The one thing I will say though, (ladies please don't take offence) is do not ever have the female approach to betting. Which is, enjoying the winning, but when the losing starts,  wonder that you could have bought with what's been lost.... a new dress, or a new top for the kids, or a nice wardrobe, or a new suite or kitchen. If there is anything that will bring sod's law into betting that will be it. I've been there, it's terrible, didn't mind the Z3, but when I lost a stack which was often with my strike rate, I had to keep it quiet. When your betting starts to become secretive and with no support...big trouble...but that's another story and thankfully well in the past. If I will just revert back to rules for full time backing just for a moment. The most important is.....get massive support from the missus, and make sure she's knows exactly what you are doing win and lose. Alison is the main reason why I retired, she let me have one last go last summer and fortunately it went ok, but if I started again she would lynch me. Call me under the thumb if you wish, but is there is one thing I've learned through the years and that is women generally know better.

1800 I have done better and waited and manage to get a very small amount on the selection at 22-1. Had I not got that I possibly wouldn't have played. I have taken a risk here on a horse that I'm hoping will come back to form, because if it does it will win this doing hand springs. You don't have to go that far back to the time when under identical conditions Get Stuck In annihilated Regal Song and other good handicappers over this course and distance. I am pretty sure Linda Perret would have eyed this race up, and Tony "ease down" Culhane will want to be doing his best tonight. I am concerned about Regal Song even though he's never won over 6 and he has a bad draw. We expected Regal Song to come out quick over 5 considering all this soft ground that is about, so it's odd to me. RS put in an extraordinary performance last time here over 5 from a bad draw and would probably have even easier over 6 so I'm a bit concerned, but Get Stuck In at a big price is the one for us.

Finally, we have backed The Lord to be our saviour in the 8.20. I think 5-2 is a very good price, had it been drawn in stall one this would have been clear favourite. I don't think it will make the slightest difference, and will be very surprised if this doesn't return to winning ways at the expense of Fallons mount.

2145 At one point I thought we were on to a 22-1 winner as Get Stuck In led until a half furlong from home, and then toss Tony Culhane off I think. Perhaps it was one of those punters who lost all that money who tipped the the horse off to do him over. Anyway have to be quick my jacuzzi's running (who said posing twat :-)) Good day, but I was gutted with the price of King's crest. I was watching The Lord's race on the PC when it went to 3-1 I went to increase the bet and the bloody race was over. I knew there was lag but not that much. Brilliant perfomance no the less!! System bets produced 3 from 4 and we got even more due to the multiple. Share price up to 5.45 and the system points on a massive 63points profit. 

Result: Get Stuck In Lost - The Lord WON 3-1

Thursday 11 July 2002

0900 There is no more prestigious 6f race than the Group 1 July Cup, and despite Adrian O'brien winning the last two out of three, we cannot oppose Danehurst under today's conditions. I remember when this horse won a Group 3 at Newbury someone said it would be name to remember..well we haven't forgotten. From the moment this horse broke the track record at Wolver it was obvious it was going to be pretty useful. Eight of the 10 winners of this race ran at Royal Ascot, and although I'm not an expert by any means on Group Races, I do like Prescott and he'll have this in the bag by 3.30. We have not backed this yet as I am waiting for a better price which should come at the off rather than now.

I won quite a bit of cash on Atavus in the Bunbury Cup last year and I would love a repeat but we may be done by the softish ground. I cannot place a lot of money on the race but by god I wish Ghannam wasn't running. This horse was going to be my big payer for us, but alas I don't risk to much on soft ground simply because it is impossible to assess true form on that surface. We have backed Ghannam at 11-2 which in hindsight I wish I hadn't done. Favourites do have a very poor record in this race and it is has just turned out to be a bet I don't like. Ok it should have won the Brittannia but this horse does thrive on the faster ground and I'm worried. Can I find something to beat it, course I can and we have had a little on Lincoln Dancer at 25-1 which is very overpriced if you delve into his form. I just would have liked a lower draw, but at the price I cannot complain.

There are 4 system bets today, and we will do a small multiple, no singles or doubles remember, and don't go mad, keep it small. This is purely a token gesture similar to the past to stop us being hacked off if three pop in. The prices of the system bets should be good. Did you notice 2 former system horses winning yesterday Gone'n'dunnit and Ostara (again) both at double figure prices..amazing!!

2300 It looks like my prayers were answered when Ghannam was withdrawn, and now we can look forward to the Tote International with relish were we have the horse backed at 12-1... not much but acceptable at this stage. Lincoln Dancer had a really rough race was battered half way and was eventually pulled up. Shame that have got 25-1. The good new is I didn't play on Danehurst. I couldn't get better than 5-2 when I tried and got bogged down and missed it, that was a blessing, and I was glad it was beaten, but it could have been with a different horse to flippin Continent. When you see that win again it makes it hard to fathom how we didn't collect on that horse a few weeks ago.

System Bets are what I would describe as hanging in, and I want to apologise for the confusion yesterday with regard to the multiple. I didn't mean do a multiple in place of the normal singles. I thought some of you knew me better than that. It is always a small extra multiple to very small stakes just incase a few do drop in. It has happened most years when you get a few all come up at the same time and this has only to happen once, and it covers your  betting for the whole of the season nearly, so that why we do it.

Just the one winner yesterday at a price to prevent level stake losses, and overall no change on the share price as the bet was too small to effect. Soft ground is playing havoc with everything at the moment so it could scupper plans for the next few days.

Result: Lincoln Dancer 25-1 unplaced

Wednesday 10 July 2002

0900 I cannot do any preaching today (thank god, did I hear one say) cos I've a bit of early business to do and I'm seeing a shareholder this morning who just happens to be in my area. I did say yesterday that I had a good un for today and I still feel that but with all the rain we had yesterday, and I was driving through it most of the time, I'm reserving my opinion as far as the stakes are concerned....one day everything will fit into place, and  very rarely this season has everything gone as I would have liked. We have our first 2 year old wager today. I have never  backed 2 year old with big cash cos they are so unpredicatable, however, in the same breath I can understand why people do it, as they have a similar record to backing favourites when following 2 year old condition races who have won their previous start, around 32% I think, which is fantastic. You will have to excuse me when I'm a bit vague on my stats, I'm not a stats person anymore and most of it is in my head from the mid eighties. I also don't think a lot has changed so I'm hardly going to waste my time studying stats like a boffin nowadays.

The horse we are on The Bonus King. This is a real battler, Hannon might think he has the race taped, but no horse in the field has such good form as The Bonus King and 4-1 is a very good price. I am always wary about soft ground especially at Newmarket but we simply have to play on the strength of this horses win in the Woocote at Epsom, and also the advantageous far side draw. It certainly will not go down without a fight, and I like 2 year olds like this, who I feel could go on to better things. We will win around £400 if it wins.

Nothing else for us today and I will update later.

There is 3 system bets today, which we think will run well. If any NON shareholders want to know them, follow the NO FEES Policy

2300 Bit late with the review cos I've just got back from watching Pet Shops Boys with the missus, brilliant!!! Quite happy today, and no complaints on the loss, got 4-1 about the Bonus King and it did run well. So did them all really considering the conditions. Whistler ran blinder for 3rd but when Nichols is at, you have no chance eh!! Birdwatching was a good winner at 7-2. We always use SP's but I'm pretty sure most of you should have taken 5-1 and it was only right at the death did it plunge. Just under 60 points profit on the system to SP and the share price is down to 5.41.

Result: Bonus King 3rd - loss on day

Tuesday 9 July 2002

0700 I'm up with the larks again cos I didn't go away yesterday cos it poured with rain. As soon as we did decided not to go what happen, beautiful day from then on, so I just knew it was going to be one of those days yesterday. We it is now pouring down again but we are going anyway, so I'll be very brief today. I put in a bit of work for the second race at Newmarket, very little for the first as True Night is a lousy price to come back to form so we might not  play, if we do it won't be any great shakes really, unless the price gets better. I don't know about everyone else but the prices on Betfair seems to be getting worse day by day, and very little money around to get stuck in, unless you are backing favourites of course.

The Tote Exacta stakes is a difficult affair but I'm prepared to excuse Compton Dynamo's run in the Britannia at Royal Ascot when rather than running so bad to be true, the horse seem to have all sorts of problems, starting from the second he came out of the stalls. I would prefer to look more closely at the run before in a similar race to today at Leicester when 2-1fav and finishing second to Vanderlin. That day CD shout have won after he got cramped up a little and by the time he recovered ran on well but was unable to get a challenge in and lost by half a length, as Vanderlin got first run. I hope that this horse doesn't attract trouble, cos I do remember it producing a brilliant performance over 5 in a decent all weather race some time ago. Personally, I never compare but it was the way the horse cut through the field from last place that I liked and if he could do that on turf the price today will seem very good value after it wins. We have backed it at 12-1 not much money and could have got a stack on at 10-1 but wouldn't play at that price. Go steady if you follow.

Bint Royal has virtually the same conditions he had when winning for us here last time, if he can get to the inside and kick off the bend, he is going to be very hard to beat, price could be better but we will play, but I'm seriously worried about Pax. All in a tricky day but I feel we should get a return of some sort. It won't be a big one by any means, as the total outlay is just less than £100. So look closely at that outlay, we have a 30 grand bank remember, so put your bets into perspective, as some of you don't appear to be doing that considering how much some of you won on Heretic on Saturday. It may have worked on Saturday overstaking is the quickest route to the poorhouse.

The other day I got an email from Gordon who is shareholder number 125 rather than reply just to him I asked him if he minded me putting it on the site to show the way my brain thinks with regard to value cos I know some cannot quite figure out why I turn prices down.

This was the email:

"I always read with much enthusiasm you thoughts on the days racing and have the up most admiration for your knowledge. However I do have one question that I need answering if you would be so kind. How do you decide what the value of a horse is. You often say  will not back something because of the price e.g Pagan Prince. I can't work out though how you decide what is a value figure to put on a horse's chances. Is it just experience? Do you use any sort of a formula?"

My reply:

Value has always been the buzz word in racing, but so many people think they know about value when in reality, they haven't a clue. In fact I have even heard people say that every winner is value. When someone says that I know immediately they are a long term loser. It is difficult not to come over a bit arrogant when talking about value because I am a firm believer that only 3 types of people know whether they have value in a selection. One is the trainer, and even then only about 50%, the other is the owner, but not in that many cases, but most of all the form student who wins long term. The first thing I have to say is that if you are honest enough to admit that you do not win long term, you really don't know enough about value. So in a nutshell 98% of punters don't really know what value is. I have got to the stage now where I find it very easy to assess it in nearly all the cases when a potential bet is on the cards, and yes it has to to with a mixture of experience and assessing the true form of the horse, and in your own opinion the chance in relation to other winning performances in the field.

Overall, you could say I have a formula, and it's very easy, but it all comes down to a mixture of the above but I'll try and put it simply. If I assess a race and realise I have possible bet, I look to see what could beat my horse if it was to produce a winning performance. I very rarely look at any other horses apart from winners. So lets say any horse with NO foreseeable dangers is classed as evens, with one danger, 2-1, with 2 dangers 3-1 with 3 dangers 4-1, and so on. It changes slightly as the price gets bigger, but I think I've said enough. If you take the Pagan Price race I had already said that Swynford Pleasure and Style Dancer were dangers so I need 3-1, if I'm then going to have a saver on Archirondel I'm effectively backing Pagan Prince at a shorter price although I will admit the chance of me winning have improved, my return on investment is not enough for the overall risk, and that very important, because although I do win long term, I don't win that often short term. The other thing I considered was the value of Archirondel against Swyford Pleasure. I cannot of the top of my head remember what the actual comparisons were but Archirondel annihilated Swynford Pleasure at Bevereley when the two horses ran recently, there was nothing in the weights that showed that Swnford Pleasure could reverse those placings unless Archirondel ran seriously below form. When you assess form you have to presume that horses are going to run to form or else it pointless studying form in the first place. In the previous Beverley race Archirondel was 4-1 and Swnford Pleasure was 7-1. When I assessed the race in the morning SP was 5-1 and Archinrondel was 12-1 so it was blantently obvious I had value in my assessment with Archirondel. The problem comes when the race starts and people follow what I am doing. My price on Archirondel has been cut, because that what happens unfortunately when a lot of people follow my info, and by the time the race starts Swynford Pleasure is 9-1 and Archirondel is 8-1. Now our money is already down, but if I assess the race just before the start it would be NO bet, because the circumstances don't fit.

I appreciate it's complicated, but I hope I've gone someway to explaining how I do it. The beauty about SB is that because I'm using peoples money I can wait a see if a potential bet materialises too. I have never been worried if a horse drifts, over the years, there is no evidence that proves that a drifting horse has a worst chance than any other, lets face it the bloody horse doesn't know what's going on in the betting as he's wandering around the pddock, so if on occassions we have no value in the morning, by evening that might have changed through outside occurences. On Saturday, we were fortunate that I backed Heretic before Prisewise selected it because I would have probably turned it down at 6-1 and I wasn't in a postion to keep track of what was going on in the race due to work, so we would have missed out.

NO SYSTEM BETS TODAY. Go steady today at Newmarket and we have a good one for tomorrow hopefully.

Evening Update

2000 Just a quick message to you know how things went. We didn't play on True Night 5-1 was too short when I wanted nearly double that. Compton Dynamo was a victim of circumstance and might have done better drawn on the far side which appeared to have a distinct advantage so we lost out there. Bint Royal flattered but was I chuffed to see Pax take the race, managed a small amount at 16-1 on Betfair early this morning this resulted in a small rise again in the share price, and recovered yesterday's losses.

Result: Compton Dynamo unplaced Bint Royal unplaced Pax WON 16-1

Monday 8 July 2002

0700 I'm up with larks on a lovely morning feeling so good I'm taking the day off work and going for a day out and a picnic with the missus. Not before though I have a scan through the race cards, and I have pulled out a beauty for you, in fact this one nearly makes me want to come out of retirement it was so easy to spot, that is of course if you know what you are looking for, but as the brain can now let a few lose secrets out, I'll try and give you an insight. I do have a bit of an advantage this season, I think it is next season when I will really start to go down hill because at the moment everything is still in my head from hard study over the past couple of years, but because I don't study as thorough this year I don't expect it to stick so much. So what are we looking at? Well most of you know I have a list of noted horses, whilst I bin them every season, many of them stick in the nodules of my brain and just spring out. I can't really explain how but I put it down to leaving no stone unturned and as I'm only just fleecing through the form book this year, it isn't going to bode so well for next year. I have explained that I tend to look for the occasional "year out" horse, what I mean by that is that with horses that run well during the course of a season, the handicapper does his job and stops them winning the next year. A horse will always get to a point where it cannot win again, it's just a matter of judging when it will be. I always laugh when these pros say never touch handicaps because they are too difficult. In my opinion, they haven't clue what they are talking about, because the great thing about handicaps is that the handicapper is stopping horses for you week after week by hiking them up in the weights, the problem is it can take weeks to get up and months to get em down again to a point where they can win again. In other words they take a year out. It happens all the time and in some cases you just know that when they come down sooner or later they will start winning again, but not normally on the mark they last won at, a bit lower, simply because the trainer has to be sure and often goes a bit overboard in the preparation to get it ready. 

What I do on a daily basis is look for a horse that I know has all the ingredients that I look for in a handicapper, and if you think I'm going to spout em all on here when I'm writing a book on handicapping you've got another thing coming, but I will go as far as to say there is horse which fits just about all the credentials running at Windsor tonight. My only worry is I haven't got a great record at the track, in fact I have never won decent money at Windsor ever. I feel we may have a problem with the price but I have already got a small bet on at 6-1 and I think that might have been lucky. I'm pretty sure that this horse could be around 7-2 at the off, well it wouldn't have our money on at that price, but that's the beauty of SB at least we are backing the horses at the right price.

The horse I'm on about is Lively Lady, and if I wasn't going out for the day I would be waiting until very late before giving this out, because I would have liked to have backed it again if a price was forthcoming. Just look at the recipe, apart from a silly outing on the all weather, this horse is running in it's lowest class since June 1999, when it started to show some improvement. So much so the handicapper ended up hiking it up to 90 odd after winning a very decent handicap at Kempton very easy indeed. That was a real kick in the teeth and the handicapper basically said sod you mate, you ain't winning again for a while after making me look stupid. Now you have to consider what has happened since. How would you feel if you had to run with the equivalent of a sack of spuds on your back for race after race, you'd get pretty hacked of, you'd lose confidence, you wouldn't look forward to the races, you would become a loser. I know it sounds daft, but I have this inner feeling that a horse goes through that and that is why the patterns always occur with some horses with regard to being handicapped. Over time, the handicapper takes a bit of here and a bit off the there and the horse begins to think, hang on, I'm getting used to this, and then the trainer then knows the horse is getting near to winning again, and all the winning traits start to appear. In Lively Lady's case it has taken the horse an age, over a year in fact, but it happens like this all the time in a lot of cases, it is just a matter of time and patience waiting for the upturn. I will admit that in lots of cases there isn't an upturn but I don't care about that because the more horses that show no form the easier it is to pick em out and discard them. The last run by Lively Lady was in a Classified race on this track just under a month ago. It ran a good race from a bad draw and had future winner written all over it. This horse is a terrific performer when everything is in the horses favour and I feel we could have it tonight. If not, don't worry too much because I don't expect this horse to lose us money between now and the end of the season, if not tonight, Jenkins will bring it out at Kempton hopefully where it will win there under the right conditions. This horse is by far the best horse in this field and if she is back to her best she will annihilate this field.

Evening Update

2100 Shame the Lord Mayor was only here for the weekend cos his show was certainly over for us today. I knew a soon as someone said they wanted a winner for their birthday we were on a downer. Two system horses ran ok without really looking to get us going, and I didn't Like American Cousin at the price. I do think next year we will turn these short ones down. Lively Lady was expected to win by connections I was told, so on paper it was a correct decision, it's just a shame somebody didn't tell the horse. Mind you, no horse would have beaten Pip's Song tonight, unbelievable performance. I'm not to concerned we'll give it a few more goes cos it might even go down a bit after that performance, and fortunately the price didn't drift or I would have backed it again.

Result: Lively Lady unplaced. Loss on day.

Sunday 7 July 2002

1500 I'm sorry I'm a bit late but this Sunday racing is a complete pain and gets me in serious trouble with the missus and to be honest I would rather there be nothing doing, but we just have to take this favourite on in the 4.15 at Warwick. It may appear brave with Fanshawe doing us a big favour yesterday but there is no loyalty when horses are as short as Sixhills is, because this is how we make our money by getting all the mugs to back the favourites and leave us to get the good prices on the left overs. Seriously though, Sixhills should win, but we simply have to oppose it at 5-4 that is simply stupid. In fact the horse I intend to oppose it with it not a decent price now either but we are on at 9-1 and I'm statisfied, apart from the fact that I was unable to get enough on to win us a decent amount so it is slow stuff. Oh!! the horse, goodness me nearly forgot...well it's that sod of horse that beat our Henry Island the other week when I was busily counting out 5 grand profit and we pipped on the line....Mysterium...it owes us big time and whilst we will only get a consolation prize of about £250 I will be satisfied if we turn over this favourite. Mysterium needs a really good pace and Xellance should provide it, trouble is it might also set it up for Sixhills too, but I'm happy with the price and we should get a good run.

The other piece of interest we have having is in the 5.10 with Simple Ideals, but don't get carried away here if you are following cos we aren't. Why?? cos the horse is unproven over the distance, but techincally I might be a little harsh on the horse cos it did run a great race off 48 at Southwell when it was beaten in a blanket finish. If you remember we was on this last time and this is what I wrote:

"Simple Ideals has great turn of foot for such a lousy handicapper, but it generally get knocked about and if that happens the horse's bottle seems to go. However, with luck in running of course, I am not only going to say this will win, I am going to tell you how it will win. Kim Tinkler will break the horse slowly out of the stalls, and will be behind at the start, it will make progress about 7furlongs out, it will move to the outside, and go to the front on the bit 2 furlongs out. It will then be ridden and hang on near the finish"  Monday 10 June 2002

Excuse the bragging, I very rarely do this, but I think the only thing I got wrong on that day was he wasn't quite on the bit at 2furlongs out and the post came a yard too soon. Today I feel the horse might need to be a bit more up with pace, but on the faster ground this horse could make amends for the close defeat last time. Again we are not in big, but enough to just keep things ticking over without much damage. We are on at 7-1 which is good price.

All in all, a promising day, that could end defeat but both horses are in good form and there is no reason to doubt the selections. We have also done a very small EW double, so if the first one does come in, it will be a nice bit of excitement for little cost, and that's what it is all about really.

1730 A real pain when Sixhills was pulled because that is one reason why we lost a fraction on the share price. The whole point of backing Mysterium was because I felt we had the favourite beaten not necessarily by our horse but because our horse was a good price (9-1) we had to play. This race was spoilt as a betting medium as far as I was concerned as no way did we have any sort of value at all. Didn't Xellance run a blinder, and certainly deserved to win. The ew double ended up a stupid bet too, and I honestly would have said that had they both won. In the end we only just lost out on a return of stake as Simple Ideals couldn't quite stay up with the pace at times and we lost out by a head for a place return. Having said all that the system bets did excellent for us and this is where tipsters start crowing that they have had 4 winners out of the last 5 bets, not telling anyone that their previous five before that, have been losers. We are not like that we will crow at the end of September of course when we have hope fully won most of you money and all the non shareholders don't required me to return their cash. It's going ok so far, but lets just keep out feet on the ground and hope for better prices, because personally I would not have done any of today's at the price, but we deserve a bit of luck eh!!

Result: EW double lost. Loss on day

Saturday 6 July 2002

0800 It's a busy day today and I want that share price to rise a little and I feel we have tremendous opportunity to do it, so read on carefully. I know some follow this information to try and make a few bob but be careful cos it is slow progress. I may couple a few and I think I have the Old Newton Cup so well sussed out that I even think we might stretch to a very rare small tricast combination, but don't worry I never shell out much on those simply because they rarely come off, but does anybody's?? 

We won't be having a bet in the Eclipse and I have heard from contacts that Hawk Wing is the professionals bet today, well let me tell you, a horse like Hawk Wing would have never been a professionals bet in my day, well not a good professional anyway. Why?? one may ask. Ok, you are backing odds on for starters. I'm personally against odds on backing simply because I don't think anyone makes money long term doing it, but I will agree with the argument that sometimes it does pay short term. What about today. Well any tipster service that gives this out for their client's unless they are telling them to lay it, is doing their clients an injustice. Please understand it will probably win, but if you ever delve into the depts of buying money you need to be absolutely positive everything is in your favour, it's no good just looking at it jumping out at you and go and follow the masses. Most get a bit blinkered with this race because it is the first chance we get this season to compare the current Classic band of horses against their elders, and I'll tell you straight, most of them don't hack it, and older horses have a distinct advantage. So if Hawk Wing does pull it off, it's a good un, no doubt about that, but personally if I was pushed, I would lay it at short odds and back Equerry EW to continue a good record for Godolphin in this. Can I stress SB has not backed in this race!!

Despite not liking Haydock as a winning course I do like the Old Newton Cup, because I have backed the winner twice in the past 10 years, that may not seem a good record to some but at the prices I back at it is very acceptable, so we have to try again. I am a little hacked off with the rain and the going has to be taken on trust because Good/Firm doesn't look a possibility despite what the Racing Post says. Anyway all I will do is reduce my stakes a little on the race because having done the work I do want to play. The race that points to the winner of this race is the Duke of Edinburgh stakes at Royal Ascot. Most will go for Mark Johhnstons horse Takamaka Bay which to me seems bit odd as such a short price and I think we will get the winner here in Night Sight. Night Sight has improved out of all recognition and ran a blinder at Ascot, and if he maintains his form Takamaka Bay has to improved to beat that horse on the same terms, so ask yourself why is TB 4-1 and NS 12-1. I am a private handicapper and I read al ot, but the clues are there, the information is there, so why such a difference in price. The answer is the trainer and the hype. Bookies know that most punters haven't a clue when it comes to comparing prices so most of them will learn towards the horse that requires so little effort to suss out, so the bookies make the price short in these popular handicaps knowing damn well that people will back it anyway cos most have probably never heard of Michael Chapman. I happen to know that he is probably as good a trainer as Mark Johnston but with less drive and ambition. Obviously I'm not daft enough to say that Takamaka Bay will lose and go and lay it, what I'm saying is that on all know form, the prices do not reflect the true chance of both horses so TB is very poor value, and if you back consistently like that you will lose long term. We don't win that much on SB but we are probably the most proven long term backers around and the main reason for that is we don't back at bad value when it stands out a mile that is exactly what most are doing. 

Overall, I probably shouldn't be preaching like this because I have just said in the past 2 days that 2 horses would win and both have been ignored, but I do like to explain these things before the event. Anyone can come on after a race has been run and say what should have happened, or say I told you so, that's easy. The hardest thing is to disregard your encapsulated ego and base your opinions before a race, and most and scared to do it for feeling a pratt. Well, I have lost count I how often I have got egg on my face but I'll never changed my ideals because that is what has made me money. You always have to remember that you never lose money turning down a bet, and if you put all the money you saved into a cardboard box for a year, you would be loaded.

Well enough of that, and just to finish off this race, in addition to backing Night Sight, we have done a combination tricast  and added, Counsel's Opinion, Red Carnation, and of course Takamaka Bay. I will be gobsmaked if the winner does not come from one of those 4. You will notice I have not included Bollin Nellie, I will be disappointed if that features, I think the handicapped has stopped him from winning in my opinion.

Don't worry I'm not going to waffle on much longer. We have interest in 2 other races, one I feel will win and the other is a bit of a risk because the price is shorter than I would have prefered but it's just ok. I have been waiting for Heretic for some time, this was my Royal Hunt Cup selection that was pulled out on the day. I have no idea why but I must play today, this race is slightly easier of course but it is still difficult, but this horse will win a big handicap this season I'm convinced of it. Seems to have everything in his favour and if he gets luck in running which he didn't have at Kempton in May he should go very close. We have backed this horse at 8-1, which is only just acceptable, had it been a bigger price we would have put more money down. I also have have a small bet on Mick Kinane aswell.

Lastly, there is a bet today that stand out a mile the 4.10 at Sandown and we must play even at 3-1 Cupboard Lover has had a short break after being beaten in a jump race 4 weeks ago. Returns to the flat after pulversing Lady Two K at Newbury and Lady Two K has gone on to win 2 C handicaps without breaking sweat. Enough said.

There is just the one system bet today, which we do thing will win. If you want to know it follow the NO FEES Policy

1000 I have just noticed that Pricewise has produced the same bets as us for the the Tote Scoop 6 Handicap, that is so frustrating and purely coincidental. Shareholders will be please to know that we have far better prices to what is now on offer because I placed the bets before the info came  out.

Evening update

1630 I have never been so relieved that a horse lost and I was nearly dealt a severe lesson. Often when I have just 4 selections and things are running for us, I do a standard multiple costing £25. If Night Flight had won that small lapse would have cost the site £18,000 and I would have gone into hiding with shame. As it was I may be did cost us a few bob but you can't just willy nilly do multiples all the time or else the real profit from logical staking get diminished before you know it. Today was good, we were wrong about the Eclipse but who cares, Night Flight finished last, but at least Takamaka Bay run as I expected, and we had 2 good returns and our only system bet today won at 5-2. I think the thing that pleased me most about Heretic was that it would have won the Hunt Cup on that perfomance. It was a strong selection but the price still was not brilliant beforehand so we only won £360 on the bet, but we mustn't complain, remember I'm only doing this as hobby now and I didn't have a bean of my own money on it. Share price is up 8p to a beautiful 5.42 and the system bet profit goes up to 56points.

Result: Night Flight unplaced Heretic WON 8-1 Cupboard Lover WON 3-1

Friday 5 July 2002

1000 I got quite excited last might when thinking I'd got a good thing prepared for Beverley but I went to the exchanges and noticed Pagan Prince at 4.0. That is disappointing when you consider there are 2 previous start winners, and good ones at that. So that's out, because I looked a hour ago and it was down to 3.8. Crazy!! I intended to do our noted horse Archirodel as cover aswell, because that one could come back to form quite easily on this track. So in the end we we have backed Archirodel at 12-1 only. The short price about Pagan Prince could turn out to be a blessing because although we backed Archirondel last time out at Bath, it was obvious he didn't win for 2 reasons. The horse didn't suit the track and whilst the horse had good form on Good/Firm, Bath was like a road that day and was clearly affected. As this horse has produced his best ever performance at Beverley it does seem a good bet at the price. In that Beverley he annihilated both Swynford Pleasue and Style Dancer, both of whom I would rate the dangers to the horse I think will win Pagan Prince. You might have difficulty getting around my way of thinking here, e.g. why back another horse when you think a certain one will win. Well, this is the reason, Pagan Prince is too short, had it been a decent price say 5-1 which it should be, we would have had a good bet and good cover. Yes 2 horses that I feel will win us decent money for our risk. At the current price with cover you are effectively backing Pagan Prince at 6-4 which is pointless because the reward for the effort is not worth the risk, so the alternative is to risk small bet for a large return and hope that my feelings are wrong about Pagan Prince, after all I am wrong a 75% of the time. If the price of Archirodel gets bigger I will back the horse again.

Ok now here comes the good confident stuff, which although we have been ticking along quite nicely, there hasn't been a lot of. Successful Betting has back a horse at Sandown to win £500. I really do feel we have good one here. It is quite lightly raced and has had it's problems since performing excellent a couple of years ago. Actually if you compare the rating from when this horse appeared in this race 2 years ago as a 3 year old, you have to take serious notice, as the horse should be stronger and of course better. Kings Mill pulverised the opposition here last time, making it quite clear that this horse is right back to form. It always was a potenial group horse and I feel there is nothing in the field that will stop this horse from winning provided it does one thing. If it repeats the previous run, and that is a big if or course, the other horses might as well stay at home, this is an outstanding wager in my opinion, and we have a price of 8-1. No doubt some of you will wonder why I haven't mentioned previous winners for us Takes Tutu and Champion Lodge. It's difficult to put into words but when you watch a horse perform there are things about a performance that just gives you that boost. I have been watching races for years of course and Kings Mill seem to have everything I look for in a winning handicapper. Christ I hope I'm right!!!

Nothing else, apart from 4 system horses, which I will comment on later.

2130 I seem to be bottling it a bit here over the past few days and instead of winning you all money I'm losing it, which isn't particularly brilliant. Sorry about Pagan Prince, I just will not take the shorter price in such a competitive field but oh do I wish it had been a better price and we obviously would have been on. It would have been better if Kings Mill had been placed because I had the first EW all season on that because we were risking more than normal and we get stuffed by a neck. I didn't feel that bad in running cos it looked a certain place, but I'm a bit sad cos it's knocked 2p of the share price.

The system bets...well what can you say...at one point I thought Redoubtable was going to hack up until someone shot it from the stands, and the last race turned into a farce when the favourite decided to become a car park attendant, and I think someone decided that Tony Culhane had ridden too many winners of late. Scotts View stopped it from being a total nightmare and I have to say the price was far better than I expected. Not to worry though, there's always another day, when hopefully I'll still get it right but I'll back em aswell.

Had an amusing email tonight from a newbie and I'm sure he won't mind me explaining that he reckons he jinx's every service he joins and we are the next. This man has never won using tipsters, my reply to him was, well why join em. I won't say what he said but he hopes we can cure him. Now that is a challenge!!

Results: One bet Archinrodel unplaced.

Thursday 4 July 2002

1100 There is a lot going on today and I think one or two might have just fallen into place and I think we will end up playing although nothing has been backed as yet, because I don't appear to have the prices. I might have to reassess because it looks like I'm being a bit greedy. The best bet of the day in my opinion is Baby Barry in the 3.10 at Haydock. I expected it to be around 9-2 and I have left a possible bet on the exchanges at that price. This horse is following a pattern and often takes time to come to hand. Geraldine Rees is proving quite adept of late and many of her runners don't appear to be hit that hard by the handicapper. BB ran at Doncaster at the end of last month in a race you have to say he was unlucky to come across a back to form Full Spate. I do feel compensation for that defeat is on the cards as we know what Full Spate did to the opposition at Hamilton although it has to be said the winner was well placed and didn't have too much competition. Looks to be coming into top form and I expect a result. Secondly, horses that run well in the Wokingham have to be followed. Chookie Henton was our selection at a big price when finishing 3rd at Ascot and I feel he has only Proud Boast to beat tonight at Newbury. PB is on a handicap hat-trick and I hope he is burdened and I feel the smaller field will suit the horse better. Not a good price but above 2-1 which is just about right considering there is just the one danger.

I had a glance through the card at Epsom and one thing that stood out for me was that every ride that Fallon has is a clear winning possiblity. He could easily have 4 winner with a bit of luck, his best ride unfortunately is Katiypour, which clashes with our only system horse of the day. Could be a candidate for Sods Law here. The 8.35 Claimer might be worth looking at closer because on all known ratings this is a 3 horse race so one could say if you get an ew price you are going to get a free bet. The horse that would stop me from betting would be the one from Belgium, why is he bringing the horse across for this when there appears to be a stand out choice in Peartree House. Very odd that.

Nothing else worth noting really, apart from maybe In Xanadu at Newbury this evening. I'm not sure what sort of price it will be but anything around the 11-4/5-2 mark might be worth a closer look. This was beaten by an outsider after been given a poor ride by Pat Eddery, he was always going like a winner and he just seemed to fall asleep, and to add insult to injury the horse when Pat did whack the horse in order to get him to win his race, he shyed right away from the whip and lost all chance. It is interesting that whilst it is not good policy to back a horse that has not proved it can win, the winner has won again and winners have come from as far down as seventh. Looks a good prospect but as yet we have not played. It made be small multiple time and if I get chance I'll let you know, but it will be smallish of course.

Just the one system bet today.

Both of yesterday's system bets were well and truely beaten and the points profit stands at 56points. One of the bets co incided with Gekko so I knew we were on to a loser from the start!!!

2100 I don't know whether to laugh or cry here, because by refusing to back anything has certainly cost us money, although the bonus was Baby Barry getting beaten because you will have maybe gathered that I didn't get 9-2 matched. The price was silly and I was nearly tempted to lay it, so that just show how my whole way of think revolves around prices, and I mean that, it has to if you want to make this game pay. We also didn't back 2 horses in the system bet race, so we were lucky there I suppose, even though the system horse didn't win. Twilight Mistress finished fourth but no great shakes and was never going to win. The annoying race was the claimer, and I'm really kicking myself here for not being on the winner which was a massive price, and the clear FREE bet, but that is the different between doing this fulltime as I used to, and  virtually as a hobby nowadays. I appreciate it is after the race that I'm saying this but I have highlighted races like this before many times before, ok I might not have given the winner out, but it is the make up of the race you need to look for. I mentioned earlier that only 3 could really win the race on ratings, and whilst Peartree House stood out on ability the horse's wasn't in form and was miles too short for an EW bet, I would have done it though had the price been right. This meant that the other two were good enough to back em both and still win money. The winner was 6-1 on the exchanges and I just stared at it...absolute plonker, because I did the same with Chookie Henton, having said 2-1 was ok early, it was 3-1 on the exchanges and I didn't play, cos I missed that price when it was gambled on, however, the latter is normal for me cos I will never do anything to compensate for loss of value, ok tonight I missed out on a winner, but there will be 20 times I will do that and they will all lose.

I will just add a little note for the people who backed Baby Barry. This is sometimes why this information is difficult to follow, but look closer. If you recap we put a price on the exchanges at 9-2 and you can only give yourself a pat on the back if you did the same. Just because I say it is the best bet of the day does not mean back it at all costs. Remember, we lose a lot  and if you consistently back horses at a short price however much you think they will win, you will lose long term. Overall, we win long term because  we base everything on getting the right price for the right selection. If you do that you will see far greater rewards in time.

All in all, today was a disaster, a lot of work for bugger all, but the key thing is, we didn't lose and that is the positive side. Obviously I'm not talking system bets here, cos that is just quick unemotional betting. Share price remains at 5.36. System bet profit down to 55points.

Result : NO BET

Wednesday 3 July 2002

2200 I'm sorry I couldn't update the site today but we had no business anyway. I have had a few work related issues that need my attention so racing takes a back seat. The only horse I may have considered was Up Tempo but I felt the price was ridiculously short so I was glad to see that didn't even run into a place. We had 2 system bets today which were disappointing, for a couple of reasons. One was they obviously didn't perform, and secondly one of the selection was also given out by Gekko, when that happens you just might as well put your money through the shredder. The horse was a pathetic 11-4 and I know this sounds bad but I wasn't at all bothered when it was beaten. Share price remains the same and system profit is down to 56 points. Whilst I am happy with the system bets I am a little surprised at the manner in which they are performing. Normally, the losing runs are much longer, and then suddenly a big price winner will drop in. This hasn't happened yet and I don't really know whether to be grateful or worried, better just keep the emotion firmly locked away eh!!

Things might be a little erratic for the next few days, but I will of course get the system bets to you all, however, the normal SB information and study may be restricted. I will not use our money unless I'm on the ball mentally, but things should be back to normal soon.

Result : NO BET

Tuesday 2 July 2002

0800 I will be repeating myself for the next few days just so that people are aware that the system bets will no longer appear on the website, simply because too many people were backing them. Any shareholders who require these bets who have not emailed me please do so and I will send them daily. Shareholders do not pay any fees and never will. We had a great start to the month yesterday and July has always been a brilliant month for these bets and I hope this year will be no different. System bet results will be displayed on the site as normal after racing.

Just the  2 meetings today at Hamilton and Yarmouth, which is a relief. There are two horses running today which produced such excellent performances on their previous outings that we had no alternative but to play. Both horses are around the 5-2/11/4 mark which is a little short but quite acceptable for the conditions, and  if they both reproduce they will win. My only concern is that often when horses win easily you can get a bit sucked in and end up being blinkered as far as the other horses are concerned. That is especially pertinent with regard to Astrocharm in the last at Yarmouth, because I have heard words for one horse and I have another that is going to win at a big price and would have backed today but for Astrocharm. This horse has to have fast ground so if it rains between now and the start watch out. If it stays firm this has to have an outstanding chance as it is balantly obvious that Tompkins has no choice but to bring this out quick and get some more money for the owners. Norcroft Lady is the one I had a word for, but I'm hoping for that later. The horse is having his first run for a trainer I have great admiration for. Had it not been for Astrocharm, we would have backed Pants at a big price. This horse is being lined up for touch I'm sure of that. I cannot see it being today against a horse who is in top form and again has ideal conditions, but you never know.

The other horse is Miss Oppulence, in the 4.45 Hamilton. This horse ran amok against a pretty poor bunch over course and distance last week. This horse has ability and is better class I feel but as a 3 year old it still might have problems with Spree Vision. As the prices on these two are not brilliant I think we will have an ew double on Astrocharm and Miss Oppulence rather than 2 singles. That way we can reduce the stakes and as both should be placed at least, it does look a safe bet.

Some of  you may that remember early in the year when I wanted to fill up places for shareholders I was so confident that I could get the share price to such a level I would put the money in out of my own pocket if I failed. I didn't fail, and now some are benefiting from that no lose situation. With regard to the system bets I will do what very few services do. I will explain. When services don't do too well for a period of time they offer  a further month free as compensation. This is purely a marketing thing to enable a recovery to be made and hopefully they will continue to subscribe. What often happens is the clients actually end up losing more money but the service still hasn't lost too much because they still have the clients original fees. WE ARE DIFFERENT!!! And this is why!!! 

We are so confident we can make money for everyone who subscribes to our system bets that we will refund the cost of fees to anyone who has not made enough profit to cover our fees (less the credit card admin fee of course). This system ends on the 30 September 2002 and we do not back again until next year, so we gain nothing if we are not successful. That is how confident we are!!!

It is not our policy to bombard people's in boxes so anyone who has not subscribed to our NO FEES policy will no longer receive system bets or daily information. We will however, send you one email in September to show you the profit made and offer you a place next year. In the meantime enjoy your backing and I hope the information we have given you has proved useful, having made 21 points profit in May and 31 points profit in June. The "Golden Period" of the Flat is the only decent time to make good profit so don't miss out.

There are 2 system selections today and the current running total with regard to profit is 56 points. If you want the bets follow our link to our NO FEES POLICY and start winning.

1900 aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh a head cost us a grand we did the Ew double which returned a little more than our stake, but goodness me!!! Overall I think I am having my unluckiest season ever, how the heck we are still in profit god knows, pipped by a horse who had not won in 37 starts. System bets rolled on though with one winner at 3-1 and the other was  unplaced.

Result: EW double one winner one second - PLACE WON

Monday 1 July 2002

1030 We are at the start of a new month and things are progressing nicely. The total profit for June was £1856.74 on normal backing, and £1265.00 on system bets, making a grand total of £3,111.74 in one month. Considering the outlay of bets has not been great this is excellent and we will do well to match it in forthcoming months. Please remember though that the system bet profit has not yet been added to the bank, therefore, the share price is actually lower than it should be. We will only change the share price to reflect this when the backing period for the system bets has finished which will be on 30 September 2002.

There might be some information tonight regarding Windsor but as yet it is too early, there are 4 system bets which unfortunately are not freely available on site anymore. Any shareholders who require these bets who have not emailed me please do so and I will send them daily. July has always been a brilliant month for these bets and I hope this year will be no different. System bet results will be displayed on the site as normal.

Some of  you may that remember early in the year when I wanted to fill up places for shareholders I was so confident that I could get the share price to such a level I would put the money in out of my own pocket if I failed. I didn't fail, and now some are benefiting from that no lose situation. With regard to the system bets I will do what very few services do. I will explain. When services don't do too well for a period of time they offer  a further month free as compensation. This is purely a marketing thing to enable a recovery to be made and hopefully they will continue to subscribe. What often happens is the clients actually end up losing more money but the service still hasn't lost too much because they still have the clients original fees. WE ARE DIFFERENT!!! And this is why!!! 

We are so confident we can make money for everyone who subscribes to our system bets that we will refund the cost of fees to anyone who has not made enough profit to cover our fees (less the credit card admin fee of course). This system ends on the 30 September 2002 and we do not back again until next year, so we gain nothing if we are not successful. That is how confident we are!!!

It is not our policy to bombard people's in boxes so anyone who has not subscribed to our NO FEES policy will no longer receive system bets or daily information. We will however, send you one email in September to show you the profit made and offer you a place next year. In the meantime enjoy your backing and I hope the information we have given you has proved useful, having made 21 points profit in May and 31 points profit in June. The "Golden Period" of the Flat is the only decent time to make good profit so don't miss out.

NON Shareholders!! Do you wish to continue with the system selections??  If so:

PLEASE FOLLOW THIS LINK NOW:    Further Instructions.

1930. SB has backed Dorchester and Deceitful 8.10 Windsor to win £200 or £300 respectively tonight. Sorry I have not had time to go into detail. Go steady if following, very difficult race to way up.

2100 Very good start to the month as Dorchester increases the share price to 5.36 and 2 system bets won and 2 were unplaced. Sorry about the short price on Oldenway but a system is a system I'm afraid, but a nice 9-2 winner this afternoon.

Result: Dorchester WON 7-2 Deceitful Unplaced

Sunday 30 June 2002

0830 It is the dreaded Sunday racing so as many will know by now I am banned by the missus from spending anymore than 10 minutes on here or else my life isn't worth living for the day. Ok here goes. The share price will go back up today because we have a no lose situation on the World Cup final. Not a big arb but enough for a small rise. We get a £100 consolation prize if Germany win. The best scenario for profit is a draw at full time and a Brazil win. Thanks to FOM we also have Ronaldo for best Brazil Scorer for a small return, so we do not want Rivaldo to score. The only interest we have in the racing is in the 3.15 at Donny where we have backed True Night at a big price. The likely winner is Free Option but the price is too short to risk it suddenly coming into form.

The system is yet again on target for it's best ever year, just when you think things are falling away up pops 2 decent winners. We are now showing 55 points profit and I will be honest and say I'm gobsmacked that not a great deal have subscribed, but I do expect a few today of course. I am not going to spout out any marketing clap trap because the results speak for themselves, but at least there will not be so many putting money down from Monday so we should see better prices at least.  All I can say is if you want to throw free money away you should not be in this game. There is no service around that can prove it has made more profit than us since 1 May when we start these bets every year, and I challenge any service who is monitoring these bets to stand up and be counted. Our costs are minimal considering the return so far, and profit made during June alone should cover any future losses, if they're are any. 

System bets today are as follows:

Lucky Archer 2.25 Goodwood

Naviasky 3.30 Goodwood

Esteemed Master 4.05 Goodwood

2000 A mixed day with the loss of 3 points on the system, which was a shame, as we should have been sitting pretty with a lovely 8-1 winner. Naviasky was very unlucky, and I have lost count at how many horses have been piped on the line this season. True Night ran very well at 20-1 without winning but the highlight was Brazil's win in the world Cup final which gave us a double result in Ronaldo being Brazil's Top Scorer and a single win on Brazil at 7-1 which moves the share price up 4 points to 5.34.

Saturday 29 June 2002

1100 It's funny how situations affect people, I had an email yesterday from a nice chap wishing me luck and hope that we get through our bad patch soon. I was at a bit of a loss to understand his thinking, and I had to try and think of a way to answer without appearing to not care. I have often rabbitted on about conditioning one self to losing, because that is what one has to do, but we tend to run things as a business and you have good and bad days. One thing I do know is that running racing as a business is far easier than running my normal restaurant business because one thing is for sure if I had as many bad days on my normal mode of work I would not have a business I would be bankrupt. There are very few business that could stand a near 80% failure rate and still make money, that is the beauty of what we are doing here, so please no more talk of bad patches unless you consider that it is the bad patches that form part of the whole profit making machine. I know it is easy to say that the money we use is surplus to requirements but that is never the case really, people hate losing, but the only time when people should really be concerned is when you have blown a bank. We have done that with 4 mini banks  with Successful Betting over the few years we have been in existence, so we do know what it's like and we are still ticking over nicely. We make no bones about this but the system bets are luck, however, so are ALL system bets, but provided you have enough history and have the correct staking methods you should make profit long term from your systemic luck.  I said in the early days that one MUST have a 60point bank to carry out betting for this system, having said that, I then get an email from a guy who has shown me my staking methods could be improved by having a 20pt bank and yes even a 10% bank. I am a competitive guy and in many occasions I do like to prove people wrong, the problem is in order to prove people wrong we have to do badly for a while and blow these silly staking methods sky high, so I'm stuck. I cannot prove to anyone who doesn't know me that my staking methods are correct because since day one the system has been doing excellent, and poor staking methods would have survived. However, good staking makes people feel comfortable, they can handle the pressure better and it makes backing enjoyable. I would say that most people generally just have say £10 a bet on the system, that is fine. Lets just look at the comparison of the bank we use to the total bank as a whole in Successful Betting and you will see it is only a small initial percentage is use for the system bets. i.e £2,400 out of a total of £27,000 that's not much when you look at the whole scenario. The reason why it is only smallish is because if we were to lose it we still have plenty to fall back on. The mini bank we use for the system bets is in actual fact the biggest mini bank we have ever used, which goes some way to acknowledging how strongly we feel about them. Normal the mini banks we use are only a grand max, which has only ever been  only 3-4% of the total bank.

What we tend to do with systems is have one account per system, yes if one was really disciplined you would rush around trying to get the best price etc. but you have to consider the time factor, and if we expect to make profit at SP it is sometimes better to just unemotionally put the bet on and go off and do something completely different to backing horses. Treat the whole thing as a rigid business like act and when the time comes to finish, just add up the profit or loss and start again.

Making profit from backing is very hard, we all know that, be it is normally the person who fails not necessarily the system. People get worried, they get anxious, they get under-confident, they get disillusioned. Imagine if those traits where transferred to a normal business where you have problems thrown at you on a daily basis, the business wouldn't last 5 minutes, so how can you expect a high risk money making scheme to work if you are not at your fittest. You need to be extremely fit mentally to win at Horse Racing and only the tough succeed. I whack a ball on a squash court and swim a lot, when I'm not either working or in front of this PC. Get the write attitude  and never worry about bad patches. The whole of my betting life has been a bad patch but by hell has it made me money over time, purely by backing winners at the right price.

Well, enough of the sermon, because we have a great opportunity to practice what we preach here, because if no success comes our way on the system today the 10% banks will blow and the 5% will be getting people decidedly uncomfortable and that is exactly what we seek to avoid. In other words the people who adopt those common, but ludicrous staking methods will  have gone from making a small fortune to next to nothing and we with our 60point bank is still sitting pretty with 40points profit.

Do you wish to continue with the system selections?? If so:

PLEASE FOLLOW THIS LINK NOW:    Further Instructions.

With regard to SB business today there may be something in the 8.55 race this evening at Doncaster, however, it's far too early to give out the information. I cannot contemplate anything else really, and the Newcastle meeting is notoriously difficult. The Northumberland Plate has always been a bookies benefit and the pricing is absurd value. We have though had a very small interest and I mean small, at Chester this afternoon on Paddywack, it has a nice draw and if it jumps out fast it will take some catching but again the price is poor and it might be at it's limit, but it will be trying it's best, as it always does, and you cannot ask for more than that. I wanted around 12-1 and it is less than half that now but I managed to get as much on as I could at 8-1 and that's as far as it goes. I will not increase stake and take bad value despite the fact that I think it will go close.

Ok, the system bets are as follows: There are 6 (sorry!!) but unlike the last few when I clearly haven't been confident, a few here look good with the exception of Hugs Dancer which has no chance, but watch the bugger bolt in now.

Brilliantrio 2.30 Chester

Carlton 2.45 Newcastle

Hugs Dancer 3.20 Newcastle

Anyhow 4.40 Newmarket

Platinum Duke 4.45 Chester

Beyond Calculation 5.55 Newcastle

It might be worth covering the  15 x 4 timers, but please keep the stakes in perspective.

1845 Sorry I'm a bit late, but it's been a hectic day cos my lift broke down at work. Anyway Paddywack didn't run as expected at all, didn't get out and never looked like winner and what a price we had aswell. No change to the share price as only very small, however, share price will change one way tonight because I feel we have an outstanding wager tonight in Summer Shades in the 8.55 at Donny. This horse was raised 11 lbs after the win at Recar but I feel is still very well handicapped running off slightly lowered 56 tonight. There is a hell of a lot of dead wood here and if you look at SS last run at Thirsk over a mile it ran well over it's handicap mark because the faster ground  should not have enabled SS to fish a very close 3rd and beat 4 horses with an average handicap rating of 77. That is very good form and this looks an outstanding bet and we have put decent money down, with a place bet purely for cover. If Summer Shades produces a similar performance to Thirsk in this far lower class, there is absolutely no chance of this finishing like most of the good wagers lately, a close second, it will win, simply as that.

Just when a few of you were getting a bit twitchy again the system bets do their stuff with 2 winners. I felt a bit sorry for the people who back places cos Carlton was desperately unlucky at 20-1 and Hugs Dancer who I thought had no chance nearly put egg on my face. A good day and happy that they all ran ok, let's hope for the finalle' tonight with Summer Shades cos we have done bugger all this week really.

2300 Oh dear Summer Shades did not run to form at all but had we know there was only likely to be one winner at a stupid price perhaps we would not have risked it....oh for the benefit of hindsight. Fairly big bet that and share price is down 2p to £5.30.

Friday 28 June 2002

1100 Today is a bit of a non event for SB nothing has really gone for us in the way of draw, conditions etc so we will probably be drawing a blank except for system bets of course. The only races that concerned were at Newcastle where noted horses Autumn Rain and Salviati are running, but both are short and it is likely that we won't play, but there is time to make up my mind. Salviati is drawn low which years ago used to be the best draw, but nowadays the view is debatable, and is often judged by the first races. So that is why I will wait because Salviati is drawn 3 which would stop me putting decent cash down. I have been told that Fitzsimmons get's the choice of rides, that may be true but whose the good judge here, and Kevin Darley has picked up some good rides for Milton, but it does surprise me a little that Fitzsimmons is on Bali Royal after giving Salviati such a brilliant ride at Redcar when he found an extra bit of pace to push it ahead near the line. Difficult decision and must wait, we turned it down last time because of the price and got done and this race has sods law written all over it. Autumn Rain does look the like winner of the first at Newcastle it is miles clear in the ratings but as yet no decision. The only other thing to mention that stands out is the one John Dunlop horse Persian Lightning who is travelling a fair distance on his tod, about 700 miles from Arundel I believe.

System bets are as follows:

Gone'ndunnet 3.50

Schematic 7.30

Chapel Royale 9.00

Reachforyourpocket 6.40

I'm not too impressed with those 4 really although the latter owes us big time and it's funny that the jockey who beat us a head is riding it tonight. Mustn't get emotional though we just do em!!

2200 Well when I saw Slaviati go to the front travelling well I thought flip, fortunately another second but this time we refused the short price. Autumn Rain wasn't backed either at 7-4 and neither was the late winner Persian Lightning. Well it's taken nearly 3 months to get the worst result so far on the system bets. As I said it didn't look promising but you have to go with it and we ended up with a3 point loss as Schematic was a non runner.