| Successful
Betting in action...
31 July 2008 Massive
SB gamble cleans up.
The race of interest is the 4.05 Goodwood
when the Ladbroke handicap at Newmarket a couple of
weeks ago is the key to this race. Yesterdays winner
Love Galore was 4th and ran well next time out and then
won yesterday and it's a brave man to go against that
horse today, However, I have a feeling it won't run, and
with Fifteen Love already a non runner those were 2 I
considered real threats to our selection plus Steel
Tango who arrived on the scene very late from a
disadvantaged draw
It is no secret that Indian
Days is an expected payer for us this season after a
brilliant win at Redcar early doors. James Given tried Indian
Days at Royal Ascot and it ran a very good race and
only trouble in running prevented the horse from being
placed over a distance that was too much for the horse.
If you get chance to see the Redcar win where he won
with a ton in hand you will see why I feel the hike in
weight did not stop him from running a big race. Even
the run previously was strengthened by Collection's
brilliant Royal Ascot win. Went up 9lbs for that Redcar
win and looked to have the Labroke won at the 2 pole but
eventually finished a very good 3rd and being unable to
quicken in the ground.
Today I feel the horse has
everything in it's favour to run a massive race. Only a
3lb rise in the weights which is fair and The ground is
fast whereas the ground in the Ladbroke was my only
worry that day and prevented me from having a big bet.
The draw is perfect and hopefully Indian Days
will be up with the pace. If everything goes to plan we
will get a good return here and I just hope it runs to
form.
Result -
Very
exciting race bringing back memories of one of Mick
Taylor's greatest ever gambles on Jalfrezi on this same
track in 1995
..................................................................
19 June 2008 What
dreams are made
of
I hope to have a beauty in the Britannia
Stakes provided it doesn't rain, the horse is one that I
had earmarked for a big payer this year but it cannot
act on soft ground under any circumstances and it's
action goes all wrong. The horse is Fifteen Love who was
highly rated as a 2 year old and was once considered a
guineas horse until flopping in soft ground in the Group
3 Horris Hill Stakes. I have to admit though, I wouldn't
do anything that is drawn high and thankfully we have a
good pitch. Believe me this could lead from start to
finish and I praying it reproduces it's form on this
very fast ground. Trading at 33-1 at the moment and this
race does produce shocks, however, this won't be that
big of a shock as far as I am concerned.
Result -
A brilliant result for Successful Bettingwith some
clients taking an early 50-1
..................................................................
7 May 2008 Great
start to the season
I’m
going to try and get on a horse that was so impressive
last time out that the chances are it will never win
again after today cos the handicapper will polax it. The
horse is Allied Powers who I watched win on my
birthday. One could argue that the ground is so totally
different that it might seem silly to back it in faster
conditions, however, this horse is a rapid improver and
you can tell that from the Haydock race, where the horse
was very unlucky, and of course the Ponte race where it
could have won 15 lengths if the jockey hadn’t stopped
riding and the horse was slowly pulling himself up. One
cannot say it won’t act on today’s ground because it
has never experienced it but purely in the improvement
factor we have to play in this better class and as the
only horse in the field totally proven at the distance,
I take it to defy a penalty easily. I expect it to be
handy throughout and kick before the bend to make it
difficult for anything to come on the outside.
Result -
A great turn of foot and and Allied Powers was easy
winner at 4-1
...................................................................
30 May 2008 Nice
end to the
month
The Victoria Cup at Ascot is a major player
when it comes to finding future winners, and the 3rd
horse King of Dixie is underrated so don't be
surprised if this horse romps away with the 2.10 at
York. The performance was remarkable, so much so that
you could argue the jockey lost the plot after the horse
reared up in the stalls and got left 10 lengths, but
then actually got to the front too early and blew up.
This was a remarkable run and there is very little even
with proven ability that will stop this horse if
everything goes to plan. Trainers states this is very
easy to train and is the stable star and worth getting
up for each morning. Outstanding chance but the price is
still a bit stingy.
Result -
Came from last to first and King of Dixie won with a
great deal in hand at 11-4.
........................................................................
4 June 2007 Biggest
bet so far this season
I want to take on Borderlescott tonight with a horse
I thing produced a better previous performance than the
favourite did at Haydock last time. I appreciate
Borderlescott was beaten by a serious improver in Sierra
Vista but it was still a shock that it was beaten at
very short odds. This is tougher and whilst
Borderlescott may win I think to risk it at a short
price again is ludicrous and I have to take it on with
Assertive whose performance at York last time in a Group
2 was excellent. This race has been targeted by Richard
Hannon again and I think once Richard Hughes gets this
horse on the rails from the high draw it will take some
passing, and hopefully put to bed the poor run the horse
had in this race last year.
Result -
Assertive followed the plan to the letter and won
comfortably at 3-1
...................................................................
18 May 2007 Bookmakers
hate the EW double. Very
nice handicaps throughout the day some good prices but
again the ground will prevent anything really serious.
The bet that does stand out though is High Treason who
ran on Wednesday and should have been much closer to the
winner but was pocketed. Never had a blow IMO and still
finished second and looked as if he hadn't had a race.
He's out again very quickly and no choice but to get
involved.
Result -
High Treason was coupled with Misaro and the bookies
were take for an estimated £22,000
...................................................................
May 29 2006 Patience
is the key - First Max Bet
Get ready for a max bet in
the Zetland Gold Cup. This was always going to be a max
bet in this race on a horse that is the perfect 4 year
handicapper for me. It is very genuine and comes from
off the pace. I didn't like the draw too much but I paid
heavily from supporting draw stats last season and I
don't thing I need to be too worried. This horse cannot
finish out of the first four IMO and if it does I will
be pretty upset as this is the first major bet that I
know serious money is going down. The horse is Chantaco,
and if you look at the two runs that this horse has had
this season you wonder why it isn't unbeaten. What makes
this good for us is that on those performances it should
be higher in the handicap and it will be very hard to
beat this afternoon.
Result -
Could have been called the winner from along way out but
only a great ride got the horse home Chantanco WON 4-1
...................................................................
Aug 26 2005 The
long wait rewarded at last. Shareholder
Info is straightforward. I have always had it in my mind
that when Tax Free runs again it would have been a max
bet. Sadly, things haven't gone too well in August and
my normal boldness has not come to the forefront. In
addition to that the price needs to be better for a max
bet in such a competitive handicap. I can only see one
winner though and had this horse not had one race this
season over a mile it would have been unbeaten in 4
races. It is going to take a seriously good horse to
lower Tax Free's colours this afternoon. Dandy has had
this race as a target all season and the fact that it is
later than normal due to Ascot means he has a little
more to look forward too. A very strong bet indeed
worthy of bigger status but I will reduce the bet on
behalf of my dismal York record..but in my defense I
have produced the winner of this event on quite a few
occasions in the past.
Result -
Tax Free rewards a massive gamble from an early 7-2
.............................................................
July 15 2005 Superb
staking using system bets. Both
system bets were non runners yesterday but we stay with
the same format in that it is pointless trying to find a
shareholder bet that doesn't stand out when we intend to
shell out over £500 in system bets. The system has been
performing very well during July but today is clearly a
tester.
I am going to reduce the bet on
the system bets today to £70 and then use the
difference to play all of these in 35 x £2 4 folds.
Could be exciting but this is also very logical because
if 4 do drop in you will make more money that by just
playing the singles at the normal stake. Not only that
if there is success early we can maybe get into a
layback situation but I will let you know if that looks
possible.
Result -
4 Winners return £921.75 plus a further £857.50 for
the system which when stakes deducted returns a total of
£1709.25
..............................................................
July 8 2005 It
doesn't always go well as long term Max Bet is binned
due to draw I
think you all ought to be breathing a sigh of relief cos
I planned a Max bet in the John Smith's Cup at York and
I had my prayer mat out for a low draw. The thing you
have to take into account is the although Mullins Bay is
well handicapped and we had a bet on him at York only to
be beaten by a horse than won a listed race next time
out by 17 lengths, you could say Mullins Bay is a good
thing for this race and it may win. However, I simply
refuse to back a horse with decent money over 1m 2f from
such a wide draw and it shouldn't win unless it defys
logic and only a Prescott can do that at York.
Result
-
Mullins
Bay WON 4-1
..............................................................
June 24 2005 First
MAX BET of the season
This has been a nightmare
of day and I am not going to back out. At one point the
rain was throwing it down but it has eased considerably
and I feel we have to go with the indended MAXIMUM bet.
The horse is Out After Dark. Ever since this horse ran
at Beverley on 7 May 2005 when putting up a tremendous
performance off 85 it was earmarked as a future Max Bet.
I have actually turned it down twice..once at Goodwood
and once at Beverley again when the price was 13-8. The
horse it beat that day opposes and should actually turn
tables if you take into account the runner up came from
stall one at Beverley...it won't though!!
Out After Dark is a
real battler who arrives at just the right time and is
very difficult to pass, the stable have had this race
planned out for some time and I will be very
disappointed if this fails to make the frame, no horse
in the field is in as good a current for as this. The
bet is EW for insurance and I hope to make our first
Maximum stake a winning one. An outstanding bet IMO.
Result -
The camera angle at this track made it an awful race
to watch until the horse took off in the last furlong to
catch Chookie Heiton on the line. WON 5-1
..............................................................
June
12 2005
A little speculative maybe but I noted this
horse's turn of foot at Southwell during April, and
noted it as a future winner. It has ran twice since in
unfavourable conditions and I have a note to back at 7
furlongs on fast ground. Well it's not 7 furlongs but
the horse has the right conditions together with a good
draw and a fantastic price for a horse that IMO is still
very well handicapped. Must play in a small way at odds
which currently around 20-1.
Result
- Backed
in from an early 20-1 No Grouse wins by a short-head at
a SP of 12-1. |
(Calls cost
just 25p per minute)
